2015 Hennessy Gold Cup Betting Trends & Free Tip Staged at Newbury racecourse over 3m 2 1/2f, and being a handicap race, this gives National Hunt racing fans the chance to see some of the best longer distance chasers pit their wits against horses of varied abilities.
Last year we saw Many Clouds land the prize at 8/1 before going onto win the Aintree Grand National later that season. We’ve also seen classy sorts like Denman (twice), Trabolgan and Bobs Worth win the race, while trainer Nicky Henderson has landed the pot twice in the last three seasons and Paul Nicholls three times since 2003.
We take a look back at past winners and have got all the key trends ahead of the 2015 renewal – this year run on Saturday 28th November.
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Recent Hennessy Gold Cup Winners
2014 – MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
2013 – TRIOLO D’ALENE (20/1)
2012 – BOBS WORTH (4/1 fav)
2011 – CARRUTHERS (10/1)
2010 – DIAMOND HARRY (6/1)
2009 – DENMAN (11/4 fav)
2008 – MADISON du BERLAIS (25/1)
2007 – DENMAN (5/1)
2006 – STATE OF PLAY (10/1)
2005 – TRABOLGAN (13/2)
2004 – CELESTIAL GOLD (9/4 fav)
2003 – STRONG FLOW (5/1 jfav)
2002 – GINGEMBRE (16/1)
Key Hennessy Gold Cup Trends
12/13 – Aged 8 or younger
11/13 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
11/13 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
10/13 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
10/13 – Had run at Newbury before (6 had won over fences there)
10/13 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
10/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/13 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
9/13 – Rated between 140 and 151
8/13 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
7/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
7/13 – Had a previous run that season
4/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 3)
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 3)
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 10/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (25 runnings) there have been 13 winners (52%) aged 7 years-old
FREE HENNESSY HORSE RACING TIP: Unfortunately the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Coneygree, is out of the race after a poor schooling session earlier in the week, but there is still a good chance we’ll be able to see the 2012 winner – Bobs Worth. Nicky Henderson’s charge bounced back to winning ways with a win over hurdles at Aintree earlier this month and is now actually 7lbs lower than when winning this race back in 2012. He’s also unbeaten 2-from-2 here at the track over fences, while the yard have won this race twice in the last three years. The other big power-house yard – Paul Nicholls – holds a huge hand too with Saphir Du Rheu as he looks for yet another win in this famous race. This exciting 6 year-old has won three of his 5 chase races and heads here off the back of a smooth win at Carlisle last time out. He looks a big player, but there might not be any value backing him at around 3/1.
Smad Place is another that’s sure to be popular with punters after his smooth win at Kempton 3-4 weeks ago. Alan King’s 8 year-old has won over fences here at Newbury in the past and won’t mind it if the ground gets any softer. He beat Fingal Bay into second that day and is expected to have that one’s measure again.
Of the rest, Neil Mulholland’s The Druids Nephew took a tumble in the Grand National back in April when going well, and should be better for a recent run at Wetherby. The yard are also set to run THE YOUNG MASTER (e/w), who was only 7 lengths behind Saphir Du Rheu last time out at Carlisle, and could be the each-way value call at over three times the price. The horse has won three of his six chase starts and will be ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen, who will claim 3lbs.