2016 Aintree Betting Stats & Trends - DAY THREE
Auroras Encore and Ryan Mania (no 35) jumping the chair winning The John Smith's Grand National Pic Dan Abraham - racingfotos.com Aintree 6.4.13 THIS IMAGE IS SOURCED FROM AND MUST BE BYLINED "RACINGFOTOS.COM"

2016 Aintree Betting Stats & Trends – DAY THREE – A huge week in ahead for horse racing fans as the three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting continues on Saturday 9th April 2016 at Aintree racecourse with the Channel 4 cameras showing five more LIVE races, and it's the 'BIG ONE' on Saturday with all the focus on the 2016 Aintree Grand National. We've got free Grand Naitonal tips and best bets, plus all the free Grand National Betting offers, and the key Grand National trends and stats to help you find the Grand National winner.  

So – As always with the big meetings here at ThatsBettingTips we've all the key Aintree Horse racing stats for the main LIVE Channel 4 races – we hope these will help you build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years – and hopefully they point you in the direction of a few winners.

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SATURDAY, 9th April 2016 (C4/RUK)


2.25 – EZ Trader Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f CH4

12/13 – Raced 39 days or less ago
12/13 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
11/13 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/13 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
9/13 – Placed in the top three last time out
9/13 – Raced in the Supreme (3), Neptune (5) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
5/13 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (4 of the last 6 favs have won)
4/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 5 runnings)
14 of the last 18 winners were either fav or 2nd fav
13 of the last 19 winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 50% of the last 12 runnings between them
5 of the last 6 runnings went to a 5 year-old

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: YORKHILL (Bet here at 2/7 with Paddy Power) landed the Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last month, and really with the second that day, Yanworth, out of the race now then it will be a huge shock if this is not another for the Mullins/Walsh combo. Of the rest, Flying Angel, Le Prezien and Bello Conti can fight it out for the places.


3.00 – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
13/13 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
13/13 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
11/13 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Ran within the last 35 days
10/13 – Placed in the top three in their last race
9/13 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
7/13 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/13 – Won by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
5/13 – Favourites that won
5/13 – Won their last race
3/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 5 runnings)
2/13 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 3 runnings)
2/13 – Irish-trained winners
Since 1989 there have been just 2 Irish-trained winners – 2013 & 2015
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners and 7 runners-up
17 of the last 21 winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Not the best betting proposition here, but providing he stays up then DOUVAN (Bet here at 1/6 with Boylesports), who was the easy winner of the Arkle last time out at the Cheltenham Festival, will take all the beating, especially with this race looking even easier than that contest. It will be a major shock if this exciting chaser can’t make it 5-from-5 over the bigger obstacles.


3.40 – Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y CH4

12/12 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
11/12 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
11/12 – Ran within the last 30 days
9/12 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
9/12 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/12 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Favourites to win (5 odds-on)
5/12 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/12 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/12 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
1/12 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper has won the last 2 renewals

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Nicky Henderson-trained Different Gravey will be the latest horse trying to lower the colours of THISTLECRACK (Bet here at 3/1 with William Hill), but last month’s World Hurdle winner was so impressive last time out that it will be a huge surprise if Colin Tizzard’s 8 year-old can’t add this race to his ever-increasing CV. He travelled so well last time and is already a course and distance winner when winning at this meeting 12 months ago. Prince of Scars and Shaneshill look best of the rest.


4.20 – Betfred Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f CH4

12/13 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
11/13 – Had run within the last 35 days
10/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
8/13 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
8/13 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
7/13 – Unplaced in their last race
3/13 – Won their last race
3/13 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/13 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/13 – Favourites that won
0/13 – Number of Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 19 winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
Only 2 of the last 17 winners were aged 10+
Just one winner carried more than 11st in the last 12 years
No Irish-trained winner in the last 39 runnings
5 of the last 6 winners were rated between 134 and 138

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: A competitive race, but KNOCK HOUSE (Bet here at SP with Ladbrokes), who was fourth in the Kim Muir last time out at the Cheltenham Festival, catches the eye. This shorter trip and on this flatter track should see him go well again and despite falling two outings ago is, generally, a good jumper. Of the rest, the hat-trick seeking Mystifiable should go well too, while the consistent Cernunnos should not be far away either.

5.15 – Crabbie’s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y CH4

PP

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 25 Runnings)

– 25/25 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 24/25 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/25 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 23/25 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 22/25 – Aged 9 or older
· 20/25 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 20/25 – Returned a double-figure price
· 19/25 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 19/25 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/25 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 15/25 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 14/25 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 14/25 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 13/25 – Placed favourites
· 13/25 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 13/25 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/25 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 7/25 – Trained in Ireland (inc 4 of the last 10 years)
· 6/25 – Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/25 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 4/25 – Won last time out
· 2/25 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/25 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
 -2/25 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/25 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 116 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in     2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 13 of the last 17 winners were bred in Ireland
  • Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
  • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
  • 12 of the last 19 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
  • 5 of the last 15 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Only two 8 year-olds have won the last 22 renewals
  • Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 32 years (73 have attempted)
  • 17 of the last 19 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974 – Many Clouds will be trying to change that!


Aintree Grand National Trends (13 Year)

13/13 – Had won over at least 3m previously
12/13 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
12/13 – Ran less than 50 days ago
11/13 – Officially rated 137 or higher
9/13 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
7/13 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
7/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
6/13 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/13 – Experienced the National fences
5/13 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
4/13 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/13 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Won by the McCain yard
The average winning SP in the last 13 renewals is 28/1

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The current Grand National champ – Many Clouds – looks to have one of the best chances in recent times to win the race for a second time in a row. He gets in this year with just a pound more to carry in weight, but he is rated 5lbs higher in the official ratings, so if Paul Nicholls has got his Silvinicao Conti back to his best then trying to give this former King George winner 2lbs won’t be easy. The Nicholls horse bounced back to form with an easy victory at Ascot back in February and having missed Cheltenham on purpose then he’ll come here fresher than most – plus we all know he loves it here at Aintree (has won here 3 times). Supporters of last year’s winner and runner-up – Many Clouds and Saint Are- will not want to know that just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year has gone onto land the race in the last 32 years – and a staggering 73 have tried.

When looking at the age then really if you want to put the odds in your favour then horses aged between 9-12 (inclusive) are the ones to concentrate on. The last 7 year-old to win was in the 1940’s, while despite Many Clouds being 8 last year when he won, we’ve seen just two 8 year-olds take the prize in the last 22 years – the other was Binderee in 2002.

There are several other main stats to be aware of – like having raced in the last 55 days, while note horses with previous, and proven, National form – and we are talking any sort of National, not just this race – for example, the Midlands, Irish, Welsh or Scottish Nationals. It could pay to note that 3 of the last 7 winners raced in the previous season’s Scottish National – Goonyella was second in that Ayr race in 2015!

Taking these stats on board then there are three horses that standout for us – the above-mentioned GOONYELLA, recent Cheltenham Festival runner-up HOLYWELL, plus a horse that was going really well until falling 12 months ago – THE DRUIDS NEPHEW – at the prices there is no harm having an interest in all three, it is, after all, the National!

GOONYELLA (e/w) (Bet here at 20/1 with William Hill) – As already mentioned this horse was runner-up in the Scottish National 12 months ago and also took last year’s Midlands National at Uttoxeter. He clearly loves a stamina test, so no issues on that front, while a recent runner-up finish at Naas should have him spot-on for this. He gets in with just 10-8 in weight to carry and this 9 year-old should have more to offer. He’s finished in the first three in 9 of his 16 chase starts (3 wins) and has also had a run over hurdles this season – 9 of the last 13 winners had raced over the smaller obstacles at some point earlier that campaign.

HOLYWELL(e/w) (Bet here at 16/1 with Betfred) – This classy sort 9 year-old rather lost his way last season, but as a result has dropped to a fair mark and with just 10-12 to carry then he’ll be getting a big-looking 12lbs off Many Clouds and 10lbs from Silviniaco Conti. He showed a return to something like his best form last time out at Cheltenham, when second in the Ultima Handicap Chase, and off the same mark must surely have a great chance if avoiding trouble in-running. He’s got proven form at Aintree too, albeit over the normal fences, but this 9 year-old was once rated as high as 16, so off 153 does look extremely well-handicapped on old form.

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW (e/w)  (Bet here at 16/1 with Paddy Power) – This 9 year-old was travelling well last year when coming to grief in the closing stages – he was leading at the time and actually jumped the fence well, but just slid on landing. Yes, there was still a way to go, but he’d done the hard work and looked set to have a big say. We’ll never know if he’d have won that last year, but he’s at least got a chance to make amends here. Okay, a 9lb higher mark this time makes life harder, but he comes into the race off the back of an excellent second in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster – providing there are no lasting effects when he sees these daunting fences again then he looks set to run another big race.

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

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