Cheltenham day 1 tips 2015

Each day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival horse racing trends expert Andy Newton will give you his quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help pin-point a few 2016 Cheltenham Festival winners for you.

As we move into the final day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival it's Gold Cup Day and all eyes will be on Willie Mullins as he tries to land the race for the first time – he's had the runner-up for the last three years!

 

Plus –  Be sure to claim your free bookmaker bets below, plus look out for further bookmaker Cheltenham specials.

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DAY FOUR: Friday 18th March 2016
 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

Pluses…..

  • 18 of the last 22 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 11 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • Respect Henderson, Nicholls, and King runners
  • 7 of the last 12 first ran over hurdles in November
  • 8 of the last 10 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 4 of the last 7 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 6 winners in the race

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 10
     

14:10 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 7 of the last 9
  • The last 10 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were priced in double-figures
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 winners in the last 12
  • 9 of the last 15 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers

Negatives….

  • Strangely previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 3 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 11 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles
  • 8 of the last 11 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 10 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 9 of the last 11 had run in a race over 3m
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 9 of the last 10 finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 10 favourites won
  • Jonjo O’Neill (2) and the Irish (4) have won 6 of the last 10

 

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 0 from 18 in the race
  • Only 1 of the last 11 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 16 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season
  • 13 of the last 15 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 15 had won or placed 2nd at the festival before
  • 14 of the last 15 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 14 of the last 15 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 15 of the last 19 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
  • 4 of the last 10 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or younger

 

Negatives….

  • Non Grade One winners are 0 from the last 16 runnings
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 65)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 3 from last 15
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season (0 from 65)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 35
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win the race, 0 from 14 (had last 3 seconds though)

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

Pluses…..

  • 23 of the last 25 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 23 of the last 30 won last time out
  • 24 of the last 27 started out in point-to-point races
  • 9 of the last 10 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won last 5)
  • The last 4 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 6 of the last 7 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • The last 8 winners finished in the top 3 last time out

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • All 25 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago

 

16:50 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

Pluses….

  • All 7 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 20 of the 22 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot horses
  • 6 of the 7 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 4 of the 7 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the 7 winners were rated 133-139
  • Respect last-time out winners
  • 5 of the 7 winners returned at a double-figure price
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won ALL 7 runnings
  • 4 of the last 5 winners won last time out
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 8 in the race
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (2 winners, 3 places)

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe camp has a poor record so far (0 from 17)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 7 year history (5/7 returned in double-figures)
  • All 34 horses to wear headgear have been beaten


17:30 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 16 winners carried less than 11st
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had run at the festival before
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King horses are respected
  • Keep the Irish horses on your side
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (3 winners, 8 placed)
  • The last 5 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners)
  • Novices have won 4 of the last 7 runnings

Negatives….

  • Runners carrying more than 10-13 haven’t run well in recent years (2 from 11)
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 1 win from the last 16 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just three winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 10
  • No winner rated 147+ since 1992

 

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Content Contributor at Thatsbettingtips.com
The team behind the betting tips, offers and promotions at tipster website thatsbettingtips.com.