Day 3 Expert Betting Tips & Preview

2016 Cheltenham Festival Trends & Stats – DAY ONE: Each day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival horse racing trends expert Andy Newton will give you his quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We gets started with the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, but the main race on day one is, of course, the Champion Hurdle. Last year's champion, Faugheen, is out of the race, but we are still set for a cracking renewal as the super mare – Annie Power – will be hoping to become the first mare since Flakey Dove in 1994 to take the prize.

We hope they help pin-point a few 2016 Cheltenham Festival winners for you.

Plus –  Be sure to claim your free bookmaker bets below, plus look out for further bookmaker Cheltenham specials.

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DAY ONE: Tuesday 15th March 2016
 

13:30 – Supreme Novices' Hurdle   2m ½f

Pluses…..

  • 17 of the last 19 winners won their last race
  • 17 of the last 21 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Irish-trained horses have won 14 of the last 24 runnings
  • 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 10 of the last 11 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won the race 4 times since 2007 and for the last 3 years
  • 20 of the last 21 winners had raced that same calendar year
  • Rich Ricci, Willie Mullins & Ruby Walsh have won the last 3 renewals

Negatives…..

  • Nicky Henderson has won this race twice in the past, but the last came back in 1992 – he’s seen all 19 runners in the last 12 years beaten. 
  • Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 2 from the last 19. In other words look for horses that won last time out!
  • We’ve seen just one ex-flat horse win since 2008 (48 runners)

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14:10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase   2m

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
  • 14 of the last 15 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 9 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 8 of the last 12 winners at run at the Festival previously
  • 8 of the last 15 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times

Negatives…..

  • Only 2 of the last 29 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
  • Just two of the last 25 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
  • Only 3 of the last 24 winners were older than 7 years-old
  • The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
  • The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
  • No Supreme Hurdle winner (prev season) has followed-up since 1965

 

14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase  3m 1f 

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 16 winners were officially rated 143 or less
  • 11 of the last 15 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 15 were novices or second season chasers
  • 6 of the last 8 winners were rated between 142-146
  • 7 of the last 13 won last time out
  • The last 4 winners all wore headgear
  • Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note

Negatives….

  • Avoid any horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 8 of the last 11 carried 10-12 or less
  • Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 48 to even get placed
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s 0 from 18
     

15:30 Stan James Champion Hurdle   2m ½f

Pluses….

  • 26 of the last 32 won last time out
  • The Irish and Henderson have won 13 of the last 17 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 21 of the last 31 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous seasons festival
  • The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (3 winners, 4 places in last 8 runnings)
  • 13 of the last 20 winners started as flat horses
  • Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
  • 5 year-olds are just 1 from 94 since 1985
  • Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older
  • Just 1 of the last 9 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
  • Christmas Hurdle winners are 2 from 24

 

16:10 OLBG Mares' Hurdle   2m 4f

Pluses….

  • Follow Irish-trained mares
  • The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won all 8 previous runnings
  • 6 of the last 8 favourites have won
  • Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
  • Novices generally do well

Negatives….

  • Avoid front-runners
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
     

16:50 National Hunt Chase   4m

Pluses…..

  • 10 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • Favourites have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
  • 3 of the last 5 winners were top rated
  • 4 of the last 5 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 9 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
  • 4 of the last 6 had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
  • Note horses wearing headgear
  • 4 of the last 5 winners were rated 146 (or more)
  • Look out for JP McManus (5) owned runners
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 5 winners in the race (but last 5 unplaced)

Negatives….

  • 5 and 6 year-olds are just 1 from 70 since 1989
  • Be cautious of Paul Nicholls runners – he’s 0 from 16 in the race

 

17:30 The Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase   2m 4½f
 

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 11 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Respect 7 year-olds
  • Look for any horses wearing first-time headgear
  • 5 of last 7 won last time out
  • 9 of the last 11 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners (1 win, 2 2nds, 1 3rd)
  • Look for Henderson, O’Neill  & Hobbs runners

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses outside the top five in the betting
  • Horses with less than 4 starts in the last 12 months
  • The Irish are just 1 from the last 11

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Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays
 

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Content Contributor at Thatsbettingtips.com
The team behind the betting tips, offers and promotions at tipster website thatsbettingtips.com.