2016 Irish Grand National Betting Trends
2016 Irish Grand National Betting Trends

2016 Cheltenham Festival Trends & Stats: DAY THREE: Each day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival horse racing trends expert Andy Newton will give you his quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

On day three the World Hurdle is the feature contest – can anyone topple the Colin Tizzard-trained Thistlecrack?

We hope they help pin-point a few 2016 Cheltenham Festival winners for you.

Plus –  Be sure to claim your free bookmaker bets below, plus look out for further bookmaker Cheltenham specials.

CLAIM UPTO £500 IN FREE BOOKIE BETS! (Ts&C's apply)


 

DAY THREE: Thursday 17th March 2016

 

13:30 JLT Novices' Chase   2m 4f

Pluses….

  • 4 of the 5 winners were Irish-trained
  • All 5 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 4 of the 5 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 10 of the 15 top three finishers won last time out
  • All 5 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 3 of last 5

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • Just 1 winning favourite in 5 runnings
  • No winner had less than 3 career chase starts
     

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older
  • The last 5 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 7 of the last 15 winners won their last race
  • 3 of the last 7 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle (Haydock)
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins  and Pipe runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses

Negatives….

  • Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 10 runnings
  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • 5 year-olds have won just once since 1973
  • Horses rated 142 or higher have a poor record
  • French-bred horses are 0-64
  • 1 winning favourite in last 10 years

 

14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

Pluses….

  • 16 of the 21 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
  • 7 of the last 8 had won at Cheltenham previously
  • The King George VI Chase is a good guide
  • The previous renewal is often a good guide
  • 8 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • The last 4 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 7 of the last 8 were rated 161+
  • 4 of the last 11 were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase
  • 8 of last 11 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected

Negatives….

  • The Irish are 0 from 32 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • Avoid horses aged 11 or older

 

15:30 World Hurdle  3m

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 11 won last time out
  • 14 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 14 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 13 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 10 of the last 11 winners started 17/2 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (1 from 16)
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
  • Avoid front runners
  • The Irish are have won the race just once since 1995
  • Previous Albert Bartlett winners have a poor record (0 from 13)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 56
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 2000
     

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

Pluses….

  • 26 of the last 28 winners were officially rated 141 or less
  • The last 7 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • Venetia Williams, Pipe and Henderson runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 18 runnings
  • 14 of the last 15 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 19 of the last 24 winners had run at the Festival before

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 1 winner since 1951
  • 1 favourite in the last 10 years
  • 2 of last 21 won with 11st

     

16:50 Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

A new race – so no previous trends
 

 

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f
 

Pluses….

  • Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
  • 5 of the last 6 winners carried 11st 6lbs+
  • Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • The last 16 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 4 of the last 5 winners wore headgear
  • 6 of the last 7 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jamie Codd has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners

Negatives….

  • Just one Irish winner for 33 years
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season are 0-from-61
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 17
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record

 

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Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays
 

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Content Contributor at Thatsbettingtips.com
The team behind the betting tips, offers and promotions at tipster website thatsbettingtips.com.