2016 Cheltenham Festival Trends & Stats – DAY THREE

March 7, 2016March 9, 2016 Thatsbettingtips Staff 2016 cheltenham festival specials, 2016 cheltenham festival stats, 2016 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TIPS, 2016 cheltenham festival trends, 2016 Cheltenham Festival Trends & Stats: DAY THREE, 2016 world hurdle, thistlecrack, World Hurdle

2016 Cheltenham Festival Trends & Stats: DAY THREE: Each day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival horse racing trends expert Andy Newton will give you his quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

On day three the World Hurdle is the feature contest – can anyone topple the Colin Tizzard-trained Thistlecrack?

We hope they help pin-point a few 2016 Cheltenham Festival winners for you.

Plus – Be sure to claim your free bookmaker bets below, plus look out for further bookmaker Cheltenham specials.

CLAIM UPTO £500 IN FREE BOOKIE BETS! (Ts&C's apply)

DAY THREE: Thursday 17th March 2016

13:30 JLT Novices' Chase 2m 4f

Pluses….

4 of the 5 winners were Irish-trained
All 5 winners had run at the Festival before
4 of the 5 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
10 of the 15 top three finishers won last time out
All 5 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
7 year-olds have won 3 of last 5

Negatives….

Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
Just 1 winning favourite in 5 runnings
No winner had less than 3 career chase starts

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle 3m

Pluses….

7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older
The last 5 winners were rated 138 or higher
9 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 2m7f
7 of the last 15 winners won their last race
3 of the last 7 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle (Haydock)
Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe runners
Respect JP McManus-owned horses

Negatives….

Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 10 runnings
Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
5 year-olds have won just once since 1973
Horses rated 142 or higher have a poor record
French-bred horses are 0-64
1 winning favourite in last 10 years

14:50 Ryanair Chase 2m 5f

Pluses….

16 of the 21 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
7 of the last 8 had won at Cheltenham previously
The King George VI Chase is a good guide
The previous renewal is often a good guide
8 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
The last 4 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
7 of the last 8 were rated 161+
4 of the last 11 were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase
8 of last 11 winners were fav or 2^nd fav
Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected

Negatives….

The Irish are 0 from 32 runners in this race
Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
Avoid horses aged 11 or older

15:30 World Hurdle 3m

Pluses….

9 of the last 11 won last time out
14 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
8 of the last 14 were French Bred
Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
13 of the last 14 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in all their hurdling runs that season
10 of the last 11 winners started 17/2 or less in the betting
Respect past winners of the race

Negatives….

Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1^st or 2^nd last time out (1 from 16)
A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
Avoid front runners
The Irish are have won the race just once since 1995
Previous Albert Bartlett winners have a poor record (0 from 13)
Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 56
Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 2000

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 2m 5f

Pluses….

26 of the last 28 winners were officially rated 141 or less
The last 7 winners carried under 11-0
Look out for French-breds
Venetia Williams, Pipe and Henderson runners should be noted
The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 18 runnings
14 of the last 15 winners returned at double-figure odds
19 of the last 24 winners had run at the Festival before

Negatives….

Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
The Irish have only sent out 1 winner since 1951
1 favourite in the last 10 years
2 of last 21 won with 11st

16:50 Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

A new race – so no previous trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase 3m 1½f

Pluses….

Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
5 of the last 6 winners carried 11st 6lbs+
Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson runners
Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
The last 16 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
Look for non-claiming amateur riders
4 of the last 5 winners wore headgear
6 of the last 7 winners came from the top 6 in the market
Jamie Codd has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners

Negatives….

Just one Irish winner for 33 years
Horses that fell or unseated that season are 0-from-61
Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 17
Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record

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(Ts&C’s apply to all offers)

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays