2016 Cheltenham Festival Trends & Stats – DAY TWO: Each day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival horse racing trends expert Andy Newton will give you his quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

Onto day two and the Queen Mother Champion Chase is the feature contest as the Willie Mullins-trained Un De Sceaux tries to land the race for the first time for this powerful Irish yard.

We hope they help pin-point a few 2016 Cheltenham Festival winners for you.

 

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DAY TWO: Wednesday 16th March 2016

 

13:30 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle   2m 5f

Pluses….

  • 18 of the last 21 win and place horses came from the top 4 in the betting
  • The Irish have won 6 of the last 10
  • All of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • In the last 5 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 11 of the 15 places
  • 15 of the last 17 were NH bred
  • 11 of the last 18 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 3 winners and 6 placed in last 11 years

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Only two of the last 30 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • All 15 Challow Hurdle winners have been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all 26 have been beaten)
     

14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

Pluses….

  • 4 of the last 7 winners ran in the Flogas Chase that season
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 7 of the last 8
  • Irish bred horses are 17 from 19
  • 5 of the last 7 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls do well in the race
  • 20 of the last 23 were novice hurdling last season
  • 4 of the last 6 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences (1 from 34)
  • Just 1 of the last 16 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • All 19 winners of the Kauto Star (Feltham, Kempton) have lost
     

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 11 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 16 of the last 21 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-trained runners
  • 8 of the last 14 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 12 of the last 22 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 7 winners)

Negatives….

  • No winning favourite in the last 12 years
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 from 27 to even place since 1999
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record
  • Only 3 of the last 15 winners had raced at the Festival previously
  • None of the last 11 winners had run in the last 32 day – look for horses that have had a small break
     

15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 15 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • The last 3 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 20 of the last 31 had won at the festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 5 of the last 8 between them
  • All of the last 13 winners had run that calendar year
  • 33 of the last 34 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
  • 5 of the last 9 winners were French-bred
  • 10 of the last 13 winners were second season chasers
  • 14 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

Negatives….

  • Only one winner priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 34 years
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win this race
  • Just 1 of the last 14 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • None of the last 10 winners had run in more than 13 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – they are just 1 winner since 1977
     

16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase   3m 7f

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 9 of the last 11 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won 4 times)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-13 or less
  • 15 of the last 18 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 6 of the last 11 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses
  • 7 or the last 11 winners were aged 10 or older

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
  • Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 91
  • Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
  • Paul Nicholls is 5 from 15
  • Willie Mullins is 0 from 10
     

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f


Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 11 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
  • 18 of the last 29 (win/place) were French bred
  • Respect Fillies
  • 9 of the last 11 had run in the last 25 days
  • Pipe, Nicholls, Elliot and King-trained horses do well
  • The last 4 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were rated between 124-133

Negatives….

  • No winner had last raced in January or further back
  • Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 27 between them
  • Only 2 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
     

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

Pluses….

  • 21 of the last 23 had won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (17 from 23)
  • 15 of the last 23 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 23 were Irish-bred
  • 9 of the last 15 winners were second season horses
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 14 of the last 15 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 9 of the last 13 had been beaten in a race before
  • 5 of the last 6 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (8 winners), but is just 2 from last 20 runners
  • The Irish lead the British 18-5

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often target the race

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

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