2016 Cheltenham Festival Trends & Stats – DAY TWO
2016 Cheltenham Festival Trends & Stats – DAY TWO: Each day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival horse racing trends expert Andy Newton will give you his quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
Onto day two and the Queen Mother Champion Chase is the feature contest as the Willie Mullins-trained Un De Sceaux tries to land the race for the first time for this powerful Irish yard.
We hope they help pin-point a few 2016 Cheltenham Festival winners for you.
Plus – Be sure to claim your free bookmaker bets below, plus look out for further bookmaker Cheltenham specials.
CLAIM UPTO £500 IN FREE BOOKIE BETS! (Ts&C's apply)
DAY TWO: Wednesday 16th March 2016
13:30 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle 2m 5f
Pluses….
- 18 of the last 21 win and place horses came from the top 4 in the betting
- The Irish have won 6 of the last 10
- All of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- In the last 5 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 11 of the 15 places
- 15 of the last 17 were NH bred
- 11 of the last 18 had won a graded race before
- Look for past Irish point-to-point winners
- Respect Willie Mullins – 3 winners and 6 placed in last 11 years
Negatives….
- Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
- Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
- Only two of the last 30 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- All 15 Challow Hurdle winners have been beaten
-
Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all 26 have been beaten)
14:10 RSA Chase 3m ½f
Pluses….
- 4 of the last 7 winners ran in the Flogas Chase that season
- Respect 7 year-olds – won 7 of the last 8
- Irish bred horses are 17 from 19
- 5 of the last 7 winners were trained in Ireland
- Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls do well in the race
- 20 of the last 23 were novice hurdling last season
- 4 of the last 6 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
- Look for horses that ran that same calendar year
Negatives….
- No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
- Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
- Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences (1 from 34)
- Just 1 of the last 16 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
-
All 19 winners of the Kauto Star (Feltham, Kempton) have lost
14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f
Pluses….
- 9 of the last 11 were 2nd season hurdlers
- 16 of the last 21 winners won earlier that season
- Respect JP McManus-trained runners
- 8 of the last 14 winners were FRENCH-BRED
- 12 of the last 22 won last time out
- Respect Irish-trained runners
- Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 7 winners)
Negatives….
- No winning favourite in the last 12 years
- Horses aged 10+ are just 2 from 27 to even place since 1999
- Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record
- Only 3 of the last 15 winners had raced at the Festival previously
-
None of the last 11 winners had run in the last 32 day – look for horses that have had a small break
15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 2m
Pluses….
- 11 of the last 15 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
- The last 3 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
- 20 of the last 31 had won at the festival before
- Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 5 of the last 8 between them
- All of the last 13 winners had run that calendar year
- 33 of the last 34 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
- 5 of the last 9 winners were French-bred
- 10 of the last 13 winners were second season chasers
- 14 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
Negatives….
- Only one winner priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 34 years
- Willie Mullins is yet to win this race
- Just 1 of the last 14 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
- None of the last 10 winners had run in more than 13 chases
-
Be wary of horses older than 10 – they are just 1 winner since 1977
16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase 3m 7f
Pluses….
- The Irish have won 9 of the last 11 runnings
- Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won 4 times)
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-13 or less
- 15 of the last 18 winners came from the top three in the betting
- 6 of the last 11 ran in the December Cross Country race here
- Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses
- 7 or the last 11 winners were aged 10 or older
Negatives….
- Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
- Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 91
- Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
- Paul Nicholls is 5 from 15
-
Willie Mullins is 0 from 10
16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m ½f
Pluses….
- 7 of the last 11 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
- 18 of the last 29 (win/place) were French bred
- Respect Fillies
- 9 of the last 11 had run in the last 25 days
- Pipe, Nicholls, Elliot and King-trained horses do well
- The last 4 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
- Respect horses wearing headgear
- 10 of the last 11 winners were rated between 124-133
Negatives….
- No winner had last raced in January or further back
- Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 27 between them
-
Only 2 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper 2m ½f
Pluses….
- 21 of the last 23 had won last time out
- Respect Irish-trained runners (17 from 23)
- 15 of the last 23 came from the top 6 in the betting
- 18 of the last 23 were Irish-bred
- 9 of the last 15 winners were second season horses
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 14 of the last 15 had their debut runs in Ireland
- 9 of the last 13 had been beaten in a race before
- 5 of the last 6 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
- Respect Willie Mullins (8 winners), but is just 2 from last 20 runners
- The Irish lead the British 18-5
Negatives….
- Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
- Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often target the race
Best Bookmaker Offers (Ts&C's apply)
PADDY POWER: Money back (up to £25) if you horse is 2nd (selected races) to the SP fav.
LADBROKES: If your horse comes second in any of the LIVE C4 races they will give you your money back (mobile, app, racing post app) (up to (£25)
WILLIAM HILL: If your horse comes second in any of the LIVE C4 races they will give you your money back (mobile, app, racing post app) (up to (£25)
BET365: Back any winner at 4/1 or bigger on any of the LIVE C4 races and they will give you a FREE BET to the same stake on the next live C4 race (up to £50)
BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK: Back any winner at 3/1 or bigger on any LIVE C4 race and they will give you a FREE BET to the same stake (up to £25)
888SPORT.com – Money-back if you are beaten by a no-hoper (20/1 or bigger) Upto £25 on all UK flat and NH races.
CORAL: Money back if your horse falls (selected meetings) up to £/€25 per race.
(Ts&C’s apply to all offers)
Thatsbettingtips Staff
Latest posts by Thatsbettingtips Staff (see all)
- Cheltenham Festival 2017 NRNB and Best Odds Guaranteed at bet365 - January 18, 2017
- 2016 Chester Cup Free Tips and Betting Trends - May 2, 2016
- Weekend’s FREE Horse Racing Tips: Sat 30th April – Sun 1st May - April 29, 2016
- 2016 Punchestown Festival Betting Tips & Trends - April 27, 2016
