Known as the Blue Riband on NH horse racing the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup is the main race on the final day (Friday) of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival that is staged each year in March. This is where ThatsBettingTips give you the Cheltenham Gold Cup trends to help you find the winner based on past statistics – for all of our tips visit our Cheltenham Festival tips page!
Run over 3m 2 1/2f and with 22 fences to jump the race always attracts the best staying chasers from the UK, Ireland and France, while has been won in the past by household names such as Golden Miller, Arkle, Desert Orchid, Best Mate, Denman and Kauto Star.
We look back at recent winners and gives you all the key Cheltenham Gold Cup trends to take into the 2016 renewal – this year run on Friday 18Th March.
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Onto the ‘big one’ and the flagship race of the festival – the Cheltenham Gold Cup – and despite its competitive nature we’ve actually seen 7 of the last 13 renewals going to the favourite, while 9 of the last 13 market leaders went onto be placed in the race.
If we start with the age trend then we can see that ALL of the last 13 winners had been aged 9 or younger – with the last horse to win the Gold Cup aged in double-figures being Cool Dawn in 1998. A positive stat for those at the forefront of the betting, but not great news for this season’s Betfair Chase and King George winner, Cue Card, who is now a 10 year-old – he will have that age trend to overcome if he’s to land the £1million bonus on offer and add the Gold Cup to his impressive haul this season.
Surprise, surprise – this is yet another of the main races that leading Irish trainer Willie Mullins is yet to win. He’s had the runner-up for the past three years though, so is clearly hitting the crossbar, but looks to have a one of his best hands for many a year with the likes of Don Poli, Djackadam and Vautour all figuring towards the head of the market. We don’t know if all three will run as Vautour also an entry in the Ryanair.
10 of the last 13 winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last race out so that trend will knock a fair few out, especially if coupled with the age stat. Previous course experience is another ‘must-have’ stat to have on your side with 12 of the last 13 winners having raced at Cheltenham in the past – a plus for most of these.
With all the trends taken into account then, for us, DON COSSACK, will be having the bulk of my money. Gordon Elliot’s 9 year-old was looking set to be a big player in the King George on Boxing Day before taking a tumble in the home straight, but has since shown that experience hasn’t left its mark with an easy win at Thurles over an inadequate 2m4f. Yes, he often runs a bit like a lazy horse and can hit a few flat spots in his races, but barring that fall at Kempton he’s done little wrong winning 5 of his last 6 starts over fences. He’s sure to love the stiff finish and despite disappointing at the Festival last season – when third in the Ryanair – I think he looks a better horse this term and the longer trip on this year’s Cheltenham visit is surely a huge plus, so I’ll be going for Cossack to collect gold this year.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting Trends
13/13 – Aged 9 or younger
12/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/13 – Had raced within the last 3 months
11/13 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/13 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
9/13 – Irish bred
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Had won 5 or more times over fences in the UK or Ire before
8/13 – Had last raced in the previous year
8/13 – Rated 170 or higher
7/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
5/13 – Last race was in the King George VI Chase (Kempton)
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Irish-trained winner
3/13 – Won the Denman Chase (Newbury) last time out
2/13 – Ran in the Lexus Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 13 renewals is 5/1
Other Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats
Only one horse (Kauto Star 2009) has ever regained the race
21 of the last 22 winners have been aged 9 or younger
9 of the last 14 winners came here fresh – did not race that same calendar year
13 of the last 15 winners were rated 166 or higher
15 of the last 17 winners had won a race already that current season
11 of the last 15 winners had finished second or better at the Cheltenham Festival before
10 of the last 16 winners had Run in that season’s King George VI Chase (Kempton)
All of the previous 16 winners had won a Grade One contest before
The last winner aged older than 10 was in 1969 (What a Myth, 12)
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