2016 Lincoln Handicap Free Tips & Betting Trends – Billed as the feature race on the first Saturday of the new British flat racing turf season, the Betway-sponsored Lincoln Handicap is run over a distance of 1m at Doncaster racecourse.
Around this time of the year we are always bombarded with the Grand National, and rightly so – it is, after-all, the World’s Greatest Steeplechase. However, this can often mean that other key races in April get forgotten – so step forward the Betway Lincoln Handicap (Sat 2nd April).
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For many this ultra-competitive handicap is the flat season curtain-raiser, and even though there will still be a lot of focus on the National Hunt this month those that prefer their racing without obstacles will be licking their lips that another turf flat season is getting underway.
Last year we saw the Richard Fahey camp land the £62k first prize with Gabrial and that was their second winner in the last four runnings. This powerful yard is sure to be well represented again so anything they send to post should be respected, but with jockey Tony Hamilton having ridden their two recent winners then, obviously, anything he gets the leg-up on should be given a second glance. The Mark Tompkins and William Haggas yards are other stables to note.
We can expect another super-competitive betting heat this year and it’s a race the bookies have loved in recent times with the last five winners all returning in double-figures – and not a winning favourite in sight. That said, for such a well-contested race we have seen six winning market leaders since 1999 (35%) – which is not too shabby a strike-rate for a race of this nature. The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 14/1.
Moving onto other main trends then this is certainly a race that – once we know the final runners – we can whittle down the big field to a more manageable size.
Firstly, age is key as ALL of the last 13 winners have been aged 6 or younger. In fact, since 1988 we’ve seen just one winner older than 6 years-old (Hunters Of Brora, 8, 1998).
Having a horse that’s won over at least a mile before is also important, but that will be most of the field, however, the weight carried is a slightly more significant stat. 12 of the last 13 winners carried 9-4 or less to victory, while 7 of the last 13 (54%) were officially rated between 95-98. Therefore, the age, weight and ratings trends alone should knock plenty out.
We won’t know the draw until a few days before the race, but once we do then add this to your list of remaining runners. 9 of the last 13 winners hailed form stall 9 or higher, while pay special attention to those drawn in 12 and 16 as we’ve 9 of the last 13 horses from those draws placed (2 winners).
In terms of recent winning form then we want to look for horses that have tasted victory – but not too many times. So, I guess, a mix of an experienced winning horse, but one that’s also not been totally found out by the handicapper – 11 of the last 13 winners won between 2-4 times before.
Don’t worry too much if your fancy is having their first run of the season as 9 of the last 13 took this on their seasonal returns, while with 7 of the last 13 (54%) winners having finished first or second in their most-recent outing then this is a further positive trend to note.
At this stage, and without knowing the final runners and draws, there is no point giving an actual tip, but once we do there are bundles of advantageous stats to apply to the race – if your left with a Haggas of Fahey-trained horse then all the better!
Welcome to the new flat turf season!
Betway Lincoln Betting Trends
13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/13 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/13 – Had won between 2-4 times before
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/13 – Having their first run of the flat season
9/13 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
7/13 – Officially rated between 95-98
7/13 – Placed first or second last time out
7/13 – Had raced at Doncaster before
6/13 – Aged 4 years-old
6/13 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/13 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/13 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
Recent Betway Lincoln Winners
2015 – GABRIAL (12/1)
2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1)
2013 – LEVITATE (20/1)
2012 – BRAE HILL (25/1)
2011 – SWEET LIGHTNING (16/1)
2010 – PENITENT (3/1 fav)
2009 – EXPRESSO STAR (10/3 fav)
2008 – SMOKEY OAKEY (10/1)
2007 – VERY WISE (9/1)
2006 – BLYTHE KNIGHT (22/1)
2005 – STREAM OF GOLD (5/1 fav)
2004 – BABODANA (20/1)
2003 – PABLO (5/1)