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Full trends analysis and free betting tips for the 3.05pm Aintree Hurdle at Aintree.

The big hurdle race on the first day of the Aintree Festival is the Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle.  This Grade 1 race has attracted a good quality field of seven runners, including this year’s Champion Hurdle third place finisher – The New One.  I have put together a few trends to hopefully find the winner of the race. 

 

 

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Trends – 

10 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 & 8.

9 out of the last 10 winners had won at least a Grade 2 race over hurdles.

8 out of the last 10 winners had run over at least 2m 4f.

8 out of the last 10 winners were priced at odds of 6/1 or less.

7 out of the last 10 winners were officially rated 159 or higher.

7 out of the last 10 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year and did not win (3 others did not run at festival.)

6 out of the last 10 winners had won at Aintree previously.

 

We’ll start with the Irish runner – Diakali (10/1 bet365), who comes here after a solid fourth place finish in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, form which is slightly inferior to his novice record in Grade 1 contests.  This horse has beaten Ptit Zig and finished within two and half lengths of Jezki at Fairyhouse.  A return to this kind of form would give him an outside chance of victory.  Despite meeting domes of the trends, his rating and his lack of Aintree experience suggest he will be fighting for minor honours.

Grandouet (16/1 Stan James) returns to this race once again after his time spent over fences went slightly array.  This switch is probably a wise move from Nicky Henderson but nevertheless, the horse looks up against it after finishing sixth in this race last year well behind The New One and it would be a tough ask to turn that form around. 

Grumeti (50/1 Stan James) represents Alan King and is a horse that is tough to work out. He promised so much in 2012 with a win at the course in a Grade 1 but has then failed to win since.  Course form is a good pointer for this race and I can think of worse outsiders so, despite his frustrating profile, he could be one to sneak into the places.

Paul Nicholls sends has two runners in the race – Irish Saint (33/1 BetVictor) and Ptit Zig (16/1 Betfred).  The former hasn’t been seen since finishing a good third in the Betfair Hurdle, form which could be on a level with what he showed as a novice.  Nevertheless this represents a far sterner test and he could well lack the class to win here.  Ptit Zig was thrown in at the deep end at Cheltenham and didn’t do too badly finishing 14 lengths behind Jezki in the Champion Hurdle.  The horse also meets a few of the trends but, like his stablemate, would need to show considerable improvement to win this race. 

Rock On Ruby (10/1 bet365), like Grandouet, is switched back over hurdles after disappointing over the bigger obstacles.  He finished third in this race two years ago and a return to that form would put him in with a small chance.  However, the 10 length beating he received at the hands of The New One earlier in the year is still very fresh in the memory and a repeat of that result looks more than likely.

THE NEW ONE (2/5 BetVictor) was absolutely tanking up the hill in the final stages of the Champion Hurdle and could well have won had he not suffered interference.  This horse is the class act in this race and is even favoured by each of the trends.  2m4f seems the optimum trip for this horse and he looks to have a great chance of going one better than last year, when he finished second.  With plenty of class and solid course and distance form, he looks far too good for his opponents.

 

 

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Ultimately, this contest revolves around one horse – THE NEW ONE.  It is going to be difficult to find any value about the horse but his odds-on valuation looks perfectly justifiable.  The New One is a class above his opponents and the trends look kindly on him as well.  If his shot price doesn't appeal than there is value in the place market and it wouldn’t surprise me if Grumeti finished runner-up/

 

Aintree Hurdle Tip – 

THE NEW ONE (WIN) (2/5 BetVictor)

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

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