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Trend Analysis and Free Betting Tips for the Argento Chase – Cheltenham hosts the Argento Chase which has attracted 7 top class chasers who between them will be aimed at a variety of different future targets.  Historically the race has been a good trial for the Gold Cup with horses such as Master Oats, See More Business, Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer going on to win or place in teh main Festival race.  Avid punters will have their trained eyes on this race in the hope of picking up a Festival winner.

 

 

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Trends – 

10 out of the last 10 winners had previously run in a Grade 2 race or better. 

9 out of the last 10 winners had won a Grade 3 race or better over fences.

10 out of the last 10 winners had won at least twice over fences.

10 out of the last 10 winners had run over fences over 3 miles.   

9 out of the last 10 winners had placed at Cheltenham previously.     

8 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 9 and 11. 

8 out of the last 10 winners had run within 50 days prior.   

8 out of the last 9 winners had an official rating in excess of 150.

7 out of the last 10 winners had won at Cheltenham previously.  

2 out of the last 10 winners had won last time out.

 

Harry Topper (13/2 bet365) carries top weight, which includes a penalty for his win in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase.  Only a 7 year old, this horse has bundles of potential and Kim Bailey will be hoping the horse can put his latest disappointing show at Sandown behind him and go on to a Festival race.  I do fancy this horse but, I feel that the race could have come a year or two too soon and the he falls down on the age and course trends.  Despite this,  Harry Topper is definitely one to watch for the future and the Cheltenham course experience he will gain, will help him no-end for the future.

Restless Harry (10/1 Betfred) and Pigeon Island (50/1 Stan James) are the two outsiders of the field and have a bit to find with the others after rapidly dropping down the ratings compared to previous exploits.  Both will have to improve on previous form to win here, but in such an open contest neither can be wholly discounted.  Both have won Graded races at Prestbury Park and course form is very important in this race. 

Venetia Williams trains Houblon Des Obeaux (7/2 BetVictor), who comes here in good form after a win at Ascot last time out.  Despite the solid form it seems that the horse fails to produce his best at Cheltenham and has so far failed to finish in the placings over fences.  Connections have every right to expect a big run but, in a similar vein as Harry Topper, this contest could have come a year or two too soon. 

Rocky Creek (13/8 Coral) is the favourite for the race after finishing a good second in the Hennessy Gold Cup and is starting to look like an outside contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.  He boasts solid form including two victories over Houblon Des Obeaux and as such is a worthy favourite.  Nonetheless, there are serious negatives about his profile.  He has only ever run once at Cheltenham where he finished eighth at the Festival two years ago.  Not only is his lack of course form a concern but so to is his age as no horse aged 8 has managed to win the race since 2003.

The remainder of the field is made up of Champion Court (8/1 BetVictor) and The Giant Bolster.  These two individuals are the only horses in the field who meet every single trend and notably both have solid form at Cheltenham.  Champion Court has failed to live up to his potential as he regularly shows glimpses of pure class but also regularly finds one too good.  If this race was run over 2m4f then I would strongly fancy his chances, however his form over 3m isn’t particularly appealing.

THE GIANT BOLSTER (7/1 Betfred) on the other hand, does appeal.  The horse has been running in much tougher company than most of these over 3m+ and has the best course form in book when finishing close up in a number of Gold Cups.  The horse receives weight all round which is a big positive and only having to shoulder 11st round a course the horse loves could give The Giant Bolster the boost he needs to win. 

This year’s renewal is extremely difficult with the likes of Harry Topper, Houblon Des Obeaux and Rocky Creek all with strong chances.  These horses do have to prove they are capable of competing at the top level and may well the lack the experience of a horse such as THE GIANT BOLSTER.  I would advise a small bet on The Giant Bolster in the hope that the horse returns to the form he has shown at Prestbury Park before.

 

Selection – 

THE GIANT BOLSTER (WIN) (7/1 Betfred)

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Content Contributor at Thatsbettingtips.com
The team behind the betting tips, offers and promotions at tipster website thatsbettingtips.com.