Cesarewitch Handicap Betting Trends and Stats – Saturday’s Betfred Cesarewitch Handicap is run over 2m2f on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course and is one of the most popular betting heats on the flat racing calendar – and is also sometimes referred to as the second leg of the autumn double. The contest will be staged on Saturday the 10th October and plenty of history this race has loads of key trends to note.
To start, when trying to narrow down the field a good place to begin is the age. Horses aged 4 or older have landed 12 of the last 13 renewals with Darley Sun (2009) being the only 3 year-old to win since 1999. In fact, 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or older so this stat can also be taken to another level.
Secondly, look for horses that ran within the last 2 months – 11 of the last 13 fit the bill on that front, while don’t be too worried if your selection is further down the betting market – since 2000 we’ve seen 13 of those 15 winners return a double-figure price – we’ve even had 50/1 and two 66/1 winners in the last 7 renewals!
We’ve had just two winning market leaders since 1993, further backing-up just how much the bookies love this competitive betting race.
Weight carried by your fancy is another big trend to note with 10 of the last 13 winners lumping 9-1 or less, while good recent form is another key attribute with 10 of the last 13 winners being placed fourth or better in their last outing.
Despite being run over one of the longer flat trip of 2m2f the draw has played a big part too with 9 of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 12 or lower – this suggests that having a good early position, and saving valuable ground, and much-needed energy is vital over this distance.
Horses that ran at Ascot, Chester or Doncaster in their last race have won 7 of the last 13 renewals, while the same amount had run here at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) previously.
To end with – being run over one of the longer trips on the flat then it’s a race that often attracts the NH stables – 6 of the last 13 winners came from a yard more famed for their jumpers. Last year’s winner, Big Easy, was another recent example of this – coming from the Philip Hobbs team – and is again entered at the time of writing. However, although Aaim To Prosper won the race in 2010 and 2012, we’ve not seen a back-to-back winner in the races history (back to 1839)…….as far as I can see……so can the Hobbs-trained Big Easy etch his name in Cesarewitch record books this month?
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Cesarewitch Handicap Trends and Stats
12/13 – Aged 4 or older
11/13 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
11/13 – Had run within the last 2 months
11/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/13 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/13 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
10/13 – Finished 4th or better last time out
9/13 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
9/13 – Aged 5 or older
8/13 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
8/13 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
8/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/13 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
7/13 – The first three home returned a double-figure price
7/13 – Had run at the track before
6/13 – Won by a NH trainer
3/13 – Winning mares
2/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 24.5/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993
Recent Cesarewitch Handicap Winners
2014 – Big Easy (10/1)
2013 – Scatter Dice (66/1)
2012 – Aaim To Prosper (66/1)
2011 – Never Can Tell (25/1)
2010 – Aaim To Prosper (16/1)
2009 – Darley Sun (9/2 fav)
2008 – Caracciola (50/1)
2007 – Leg Spinner (14/1)
2006 – Detroit City (9/2 fav)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (10/1)
2004 – Contact Dancer (16/1)
2003 – Landing Light (12/1)
2002 – Miss Fara (12/1)
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