Expert Horse Racing Bets for the Channel 4 Racing

Full preview and free betting tips for each race shown live as part of this afternoon's Channel 4 coverage.

 

With Cheltenham now firmly behind us, it's just a week until the start of the new flat turf season at Doncaster.  Before then, it's the all weather that takes centre stage this Saturday on Channel 4 with the Winter Derby at Lingfield the highlight.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.00 Kelso 

 

The TV coverage begins with a long distance chase from Kelso which looks a typically tricky Saturday contest.

 

Gullinbursti (9/2 BetVictor) was disappointing at Doncaster on his most recent start, having started the season in good heart.  This mark is probably high enough for him but he goes well fresh so the eight week break since his last outing might have freshened him up.

 

Sydney Paget (9/2 Betfred) isn’t the most consistent but, if turning up on a going day as he did at Wetherby in November, he would have a great chance.  This is easier than the races he has been contesting of late and he is another who will benefit from a couple of months break.

 

IMPERIAL VIC (4/1 Ladbrokes) is a model of consistency having failed to finish in the first three only once in twelve career starts under rules.  He has been a bit below par in his handicap starts but this looks a little easier with another small drop in the weights in his favour.

 

Scotswell (10/1 Coral) is another who has proved consistent this season, racking up the placed efforts.  He was in front of the selection over further but only has the one speed and is more likely to be placed again rather than getting his head in front.

 

2.00 Betting Tip – IMPERIAL VIC (WIN) (4/1 Ladbrokes)

 

 

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2.20 Newbury

 

A medium size field for this two and a half mile handicap chase which wouldn't be the strongest 0-150 ever run but is competitive nonetheless.

 

Pepite Rose (12/1 bet365) had been disappointing on her two most recent starts.  She looked progressive beforehand but hasn't shown her best beyond 2m.

 

Bally Legend (7/1 Stan James) won a strong race at Kempton last month which puts him up to a career high mark.  Distance and ground seem immaterial to him and given his recent form he may be up to defying this mark.

 

TONY STAR (13/2 BetVictor) is interesting back into a weaker handicap than he has been seen in recently.  Well handicapped on his Autumn form and back on a quicker surface he looks the one to be with here.

 

The Paul Nicholls’ stable are represented by Ulck Du Lin (10/1 Coral) who is becoming too well handicapped to ignore.  Now half a stone below his most recent winning mark he has not shown much sparkle this season but he is certainly capable of better.

 

Balzaccio (6/1 Betfred) is also well handicapped on the best of his form.  He ran his best race for a long time over fences at Southwell last time and while this is a better contest is entitled to respect.

 

2.20 Betting Tip – TONY STAR (WIN) (13/2 BetVictor)

 

 

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2.40 Lingfield

 

A Listed sprint next up that is likely to be fast and furious.  

 

Stepper Point (12/1 William Hill) has plenty of form at a higher level than this but has to give weight away all round.  He doesn't have a great record fresh and this is his first attempt on the all weather.

 

Addictive Dream (9/2 Stan James) looked back to something like his best over C&D last time.  He has won off higher in the past and has two wins and a second from four career starts here.  

 

Kingsgate Choice (5/1 William Hill) improved all of last year and has run well fresh the past two seasons.  Two wins from four career starts on the all weather he should go close if ready to roll.

 

LADIES ARE FOREVER (7/2 Betfred) was a shade disappointing on her seasonal reappearance in a race she won last season.  She finished last year in top form in better races and with a run under her belt looks well worthy of supporting.

 

Monsieur Joe (18/1 Coral) comes here from a winter in the Meydan sun.  He ran well in three competitive handicaps over there and he can use that fitness edge to his advantage here to make the places.

 

2.40 Betting Tip – LADIES ARE FOREVER (WIN) (7/2 Betfred)

 

 

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2.55 Newbury

 

The Mares final is always a tricky race with lots coming here off the back of a long season it's hard to be certain what they have left in the locker.

 

Toubeera (20/1 Stan James) has done a lot of winning this season including at Grade 2 level and, although that means she has to give away plenty of weight to her rivals here, she does keep plenty of her rivals out of the weights which will play to her advantage.

 

Massannie (12/1 Betfred) has looked a little reluctant in recent starts but certainly has the talent to go with the temperament.  Being back on quicker ground may show her in a better light as she rattled off a hat trick on good to firm last summer.

 

Fairytale Theatre (8/1 Stan James) has shown improvement recently on very different ground in weak races when long odds-on.  On a line through Mayfair Music she shouldn't be half the price of a couple of others in here. 

 

Down Ace (14/1 Stan James) will find this an awful lot easier than taking on Quevega at Cheltenham last time.  There was the odd nibble in the betting for her at the Festival so that will be the focal point here to see if her progression can be resumed.

 

Run Ructions Run (6/1 Betfred) has been in excellent form all season, yet to finish outside the first two on any of her seven starts.  Although she didn't beat much on her handicap debut at Market Rasen (4th has won since) and this is much tougher, she is still of interest as is very much on the up.

 

LUCI DI MEZZANOTTE (20/1 Stan James) is 18lbs better off with Toubeera from when she was beaten seven lengths by that rival at Doncaster last time.  She needs to step up on the bare level of form she has shown this season but for a stable who know what it takes to win this race is an interesting each way prospect.

 

2.55 Betting Tip – LUCI DI MEZZANOTTE (E/W) (20/1 Stan James)

 

 

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3.15 Lingfield

 

This seven furlong Listed contest for three year-olds is always an interesting one that serves a reminder that the opening classics are a mere six weeks away.

 

American Hope (16/1 BetVictor) would need to settle better than over a furlong shorter here last time but he made a good impression, still looking very inexperienced.  Further improvement is certain and he wouldn't need to find much to be placed.

 

ERTIJAAL (5/4 William Hill) would be the closest in the field to a classic prospect, having sluiced up at Yarmouth when last seen.  He preceded that with a neck second to Toormore off levels, a line of form that is head and shoulders above anything here providing he acts on the surface first time.

 

Expert (8/1 Betfred) is highest rated on official ratings in this field so is entitled to consideration on that alone.  On the other hand after eight races he is also one of the more exposed horses and may find a few too good here.

 

Oriental Relation (28/1 BetVictor) and Pool House (16/1 bet365) have both had excellent winters on the all weather.  They have improved with every run, steadily climbing the handicap and, although this is harder, the latter in particular is well proven under these conditions.

 

3.15 Betting Tip – ERTIJAAL (WIN) (5/4 William Hill)

 

 

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3.30 Newbury

 

A staying handicap chase here which is likely to be run at a decent pace making this a proper test of stamina.

 

It might be a 0-140 Class 3 contest but this is considerably easier than the races HIGHLAND LODGE (15/2 bet365) has been contesting for the majority of the season.  Just 1lb higher than when an excellent runner up at Wincanton to kick off the campaign.  He can get his season back on track having shown this test more than suitable when 4th in the Hennessy.

 

Storm Survivor (7/1 BetVictor) was happier back on good ground at Doncaster last time when second in a very competitive handicap.  This is a shade easier and still very feasibly handicapped, he will go close if the ground continues to dry out.

 

What A Warrior (16/1 William Hill) is very decent on his day and has been placed a couple of times this season off higher marks than this.  He isn't one for maximum faith but on a going day would be a contender and is a big e/w price.

 

Another who is too well handicapped to ignore is the Philip Hobbs trained Roalco De Farges (13/2 Betfred).  He can be forgiven his comeback at Sandown having been off more than 21 months, but showed more sparkle at Ludlow last time.  Runner up to Tidal Bay in the 2012 Bet365 Gold Cup, he is half a stone lower in the handicap now. 

 

Samingarry (12/1 Coral) can be forgiven his latest two starts over an inadequate distance and then when hopelessly outclassed in the RSA.  This is a much more suitable level for him and he may be able to resume his previous improvement this year.

 

3.30 Betting Tip – HIGHLAND LODGE (WIN) (15/2 bet365)

 

 

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3.50 Lingfield – Winter Derby

 

One of the high points of the all weather season bringing together it's usual collection of Group class runners.

 

FARRAAJ (11/2 Coral) came here a fresh horse when victorious in the contest 12 months ago.  He ran as well as could be expected stepped up in grade later in the season and this looks more like his level.  He set a track record in last seasons renewal so must get maximum respect here looking to repeat the dose.

 

Grandeur (7/4 Betfred) has done the majority of his running at Group 1 level recently.  He wasn't that impressive over C&D here last time in a race that he was 10lbs+ above everything else.  Connections reach for cheekpieces here to try and get him to concentrate a little more in the finish but he has the widest draw to overcome which is far from ideal.

 

It's to the eternal credit of Chris Wall that Premio Loco (16/1 BetVictor) is still able to contest races of this nature.  Third and fourth in a pair of Group 2's last season and a former winner of this race he warmed up for another shot at glory with a solid run at Kempton.  Trying to give 7lbs to a winner who very much had the run of the race proved beyond him there but it would be no surprise to see the old stager placed here.

 

It's interesting that Windhoek (13/2 William Hill) has been handed this assignment having won a very competitive handicap at Meydan.  This lightly raced four year old is likely to be capable of better, but the form of that Meydan win hasn't worked out well and he will need to improve.

 

3.50 Betting Tip – FARRAAJ (WIN) (11/2 Coral)

 

 

 

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