Free Cheltenham Racing Tips: 30th Jan 2016
Another busy Saturday ahead with the C4 cameras at Cheltenham racecourse for their big Festival Trials Day Fixture – This week we;ve got ALL the races covered (C4 and RUK) with the key trends, plus free horse racing tips.
The Betbright Trial Chase and the Cleeve Hurdle will provide us with key clues ahead of the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the World Hurdle in March – as always we’ve got all the races covered with free horse racing tips and free horse trends for the main races. Be sure to claim your free bookmaker bets below, plus look out for further bookmaker specials on the LIVE C4 action (listed below) too.
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12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f
10/12 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/12 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
9/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/12 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
8/12 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
7/12 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/12 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (2 winners, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
4/12 – Trained by Alan King
3/12 – Won by a German bred horse
3/12 – Won by an Irish bred horse
3/12 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
3/12 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
2015 Winner: PEACE AND CO (N Henderson) 4/9 fav
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: The Nicky Henderson team have landed this prize twice in the last three runnings so his Consul De Thaix and Protek Des Flos are interesting runners, but the yard with by-far the best recent record in this contest is Alan King. They’ve taken this race four times since 2007, with some classy sorts – including Katchit, Franchoek, Walkon and Grumeti – so their WHO DARES WINS (Bet here at SP with Bet365) is the call to carry on the yard’s excellent run. This 4 year-old has done little wrong so far by winning both his hurdles starts, while the most-recent of those victories was an ultra-impressive 20 length romp in a decent Grade Two Hurdle at Doncaster last month. That was in heavy ground so the conditions here will pose no issues, so connections will be hoping he can land this before having a tilt at the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival in March – a race he’s currently around 14/1 for.
1.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f
12/12 – Aged 8 or younger
12/12 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, La Landiere Cathcart 2003)
11/12 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
10/12 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
10/12 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Had won over at least 2 1/2f (fences) in the UK previously
8/12 – Rated 128 or higher
8/12 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
6/12 – Carried 11-2 or more
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – French bred
4/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Ran at Kempton last time out
3/12 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/12 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/12 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/12 – Winning favourites
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: A race with many chances, with no fewer than 7 of the 15 runners having won last time out, while 10 of those 15 finished first or second in their previous outing. This has been a fairly good race for the Venetia Williams yard in recent years – winning it in 2007 and 2009, so her entries WALDORF SALAD (Bet here at SP with Ladbrokes) and ASTIGOS (Bet here at SP with Ladbrokes) are respected. Both head here off the back of good runs and get in here with very light-weights that make them interesting runners. Astigos is 4lbs out of the handicap but Aidan Coleman rides and in the first-time blinkers looks to still have a great chance based on his recent second at Wincanton. Waldorf Salad heads here on a three-timer after wins at Towcester and Tauton. He’s clearly in-form and loves these conditions, while it could be significant the yard won this race twice before with horses carrying very low weights. If we look at the trends then these suggest homing-in on horses aged 8 or younger, plus looking for runners that have won between 0-2 times over fences in the UK, placed in the top two last time out and raced in the last 6 weeks. We’ve also only seen one winning favourite take the prize in the last 12 runnings, but with 9 of the last 12 winners coming from the top three in the market then it could still pay to not look too far down the betting. Of the others, Un Temps Pour Tout, heads the weights being the clear top-rated in the line-up for the Pipe team, and comes here off the back of a solid second to the decent Native River at Newbury. He’s got 11-12 to carry though and in this ground they might take it’s toll.
1.50 – BetBright Trial Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y CH4
12/12 – Officially rated 151 or higher
11/12 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
11/12 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
11/12 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (7 had won)
11/12 – Ran over at least 3m (fences)
9/12 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (3) last time
9/12 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
8/12 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
8/12 – Priced 6/1 or less
7/12 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
7/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Unplaced last time out
5/12 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
5/12 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/12 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
1/12 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
0/12 – Favourites
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Billed as a trial for the Gold Cup in March, but the last horse we’ve seen land both races was Looks Like Trouble back in 2000. However, that could change this season as we’ve got the current Gold Cup favourite – DJAKADAM (Bet here at SP with Skybet) – entered to run in here. Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has been raiding these shores with plenty of success in recent weekends and this looks like being another profitable foray with his exciting 7 year-old, who don’t forget was a gallant second in the Gold Cup last term, being odds-on in the betting. He heads here rated 4lbs higher to the Grand National hero and the winner of this race 12 months ago – Many Clouds, so is expected to have that one covered. Djakadam returned to action this season with an easy win in the Grade One John Durkan Chase at Punchestown and at just 7 years-old there should be a lot more to come. He’s proven around the Prestbury Park track and won’t mind conditions. A decent win here will surely see his Gold Cup odds of around 7/2 vanish without trace. He might not have it all his own way and at the prices many punters will feel that this season’s emphatic Hennessy Gold Cup winner, Smad Place, is a worthy danger. This Alan King-trained grey is rated just 2lbs lower to Djakadam, but gets a handy 4lbs off the Mullins horse. Okay, so he was beaten fair-and-square in the King George when fourth on Boxing Day, but he was second in this race 12 months ago and was also second in the RSA Chase here back in 2014. That said, baring accidents we’ll be sticking with the exciting Djakadam to further enhance his Gold Cup credentials, but should he run below-par then Smad Place certainly looks the next best.
2015 Winner: MANY CLOUDS (O Sherwood) 4/1
2.25 – freebets.com Trophy Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f CH4
12/12 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
11/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/12 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
11/12 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
10/12 – Rated 130 or higher
9/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/12 – Aged 8 or older
9/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (5 won)
7/12 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
7/12 – Carried 10-7 or less
7/12 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/12 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Won by the Pipe stable
2015 Winner: ANNACOTTY (M Keighley) 5/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: The Alan King-trained ANNACOTTY (e/w (Bet here at SP with William Hill) took this race 12 months ago and with contest being won by a past winner twice in the last six runnings then this 8 year-old looks to hold every chance of being in the shake-up again. Yes, he’s rated 7lbs higher than last year, but he does look a better horse this season. He’s improved to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in November off just 4lbs lower and on that form rates a big player. Okay, supporters will need to forgive him his last run when down the field in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, but has been freshened up with a 6 week break and that run is certainly worth forgiving considering his overall Cheltenham form reads well. Champagne West will be a popular choice after his second here last time in the same race Annacotty was sixth in, but the third that day – TENOR NIVERNAIS (e/w) (Bet here at SP with William Hill) – looks slightly better value. The Venetia Williams-trained 9 year-old rarely runs a bad race and has finished in the top four in his last four starts, including another second here on New Year’s Day and seems to be holding his form very well this season. A 3lb rise makes life a tad harder, but the front three pulled 19 lengths clear of the rest of the field that day so he might be up to defying the extra burden.
3.00 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y C4
10/10 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/10 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
9/10 – Favourites placed
8/10 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
8/10 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
8/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
7/10 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
7/10 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
7/10 – Won their latest race
7/10 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
6/10 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
6/10 – Priced 7/2 or less
3/10 – Raced at Newbury last time out
3/10 – Favourites that won
3/10 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/10 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/10 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/10 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2015 Winner: ORDO AB CHAO (A King) 16/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Plenty to get excited about here, despite Barters Hill, likely to run at Doncaster and not here. We’ve still several Festival-bound contenders in action and with 3 of the last 10 winners going onto win a race at the big March meeting then this has proven to be a good trial race in recent years. Trainer Alan King has won two of the last four renewals and he looks to hold a massive chance again – this time with YANWORTH (Bet here at SP with Coral). This JP McManus-owned 6 year-old has done little wrong this term and remains unbeaten 3-from-3 over hurdles. His latest win at Ascot was his best yet and another solid run here will see his odds for the Festival slashed further – he’s currently around 14/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and 8/1 for the Neptune. Of the rest, Champers On Ice is a previous CD winner so that’s a plus, but needs to find a bit more based on the ratings, while Charmix was an easy winner last time at Newbury and could have more to offer with this being just his fourth start over hurdles. The Nicky Henderson camp won this in 2008 and 2011 so his runner BADAN (Bet here at SP with Boylesports) is another to note. Baden was a good second here last time out so has track knowledge and should come on for that and gets plenty of weight all-round which brings him into the mix, while the fact he’s been chosen from a few Henderson entries to run here is another good sign.
3.35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4
10/11 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
10/11 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
10/11 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
9/11 – Went to run in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3 won)
9/11 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
8/11 – Officially rated 155 or higher
8/11 – Winners that finished in the top 4 in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
7/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/11 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
6/11 – Favourites placed
6/11 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
5/11 – Won their latest race
5/11 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/11 – Favourites that won
3/11 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
2/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown
2015 Winner: SAPHIR DU RHEU (P Nicholls) 3/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Next up is a recognised trial for the World Hurdle – we’ve seen 3 of the last 11 winners of this race go onto glory in the Festival Thursday showpiece, while 9 of the last 11 victors of this race contested it. The stats suggest looking for horses aged 9 or younger, that ran in the last 8 week, had that had won at least three times over hurdles before and finished either first or second last time out. With all that in mind then really this race looks to rest between THISTLECRACK (Bet here at SP with Paddy Power), Camping Ground and Alpha Des Obeaux, with the first-named the clear one to beat on this season’s form. Colin Tizzard’s 8 year-old has looked a different horse this term after winning two other good trials for the World Hurdle – the Long Walk and Long Distance Hurdles. His winning form suggests he acts in most ground and the manor of his Long Walk win at Ascot last time (easy 8 lengths) will make him a tough ‘thistle’ to crack. Tom Scudamore has been getting on with him well all season and a win here will see his World Hurdle odds of around 11/4 shorten up. Those against him will notice that his only run at Cheltenham saw him finish well down the field a year ago at his meeting in the Neptune Novice Hurdle race, but he’s clearly a much better horse now stepped up in trip with form figures around 3m reading 1-2-1-1! Of the rest, Camping Ground looks a worthy rival but is currently around 9/1 in the World Hurdle market. On a plus he does have course-winning form after winning the Relkeel Hurdle easily here on New Year’s Day and has now won 4 of his 6 starts over hurdles. The Irish challenge is led by Alpha Des Obeaux, who won a Grade Two hurdle in Ireland last time well for the Mouse Morris camp. He’s run some classy sorts (Artic Fire, Nichols Canyon) close in recent races too, but you feel that he’d want the ground to become bottomless to have a better chance – if it does then he’d be a worry for the main two in the betting.
4.10 – Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) RUK Soft 2m1f
11/11 – Rated 121 or higher
10/11 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
10/11 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
9/11 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
8/11 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
8/11 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
8/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/11 – Irish bred
6/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/11 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/11 – Unplaced favourites
4/11 – French bred
3/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/11 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2015 Winner: LIGHTENTERTAINMENT (C Gordon) 7/2
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: As we move into the final contest on the card it’s race the Paul Nicholls yard have done well in recently so their FRODON (Bet here at SP with Betfred) is of interest. The Ditcheat team have won the pot twice since 2008 and they look to have another good chance here with this 4 year-old French recruit. Despite his age the horse has run five times in France and being just 4 gets bundles of weight from the others. The two Nicholls winners in the past were aged 4 and 5, so they know what’s required to take this with a young horse, while it’s interesting he’s the one they side with from 2-3 other entries earlier in the week. The last 8 winners all carried 10-12 or less though so that key trend might be one worth having on your side, while the last five winners were aged 7 or younger – again more trends in favour of the Nicholls horse. Of the rest, the top-weight Cheltenian won the bumper here back in 2011, but has only won twice since at 10 years-old is not getting any younger. JP McManus has two runners, but the fact his number one jockey, Barry Geraghty, picks Clean Sheet suggests this is the better of his pair, but will need to overcome a 351 day absence from the track. Solstice Star has been a real improver this season and is a past CD winner, but is up again in class and heads here 5lbs out of the handicap so needs another big step forward.
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