Another busy Saturday of horse racing free tips with the C4 cameras heading to Ayr racecourse to take in four races, including the Ayr Gold Cup, plus they are also at Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day. We’ve got all the key race trends & stats, plus our free horse racing tips on each of the LIVE races and all the day's best bookmaker offers.

Horse racing tipping expert, Andy Newton, gives you his free horse racing tips, big race trends and best bets this Saturday (19th Sept) from Ayr and Newbury racecourses.

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Ayr Horse Racing Tips (C4/RUK)

2.00 – William Hill Firth of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 6f CH4

12/13 – Previous winners over 6f
11/13 – Finished 4th or better last time out
11/13 – Winning distance 1 length or further
11/13 – Had never raced at Ayr before
11/13 – Had won once or twice before
10/13 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
10/13 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/13 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
8/13 – Placed favourites
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Bryan Smart

VERDICT: Richard Hannon’s Whatdoiwantthatfor should not be far away after running second to the classy La Rioja last time out, however, we were impressed with Clive Cox’s PRICELESS (Bet here at 3/1 with 888Sport) last time out when winning on debut and she’s take to remain unbeaten. This 2 year-old won by an impressive 7 lengths that day and despite more being needed in this Group Three company we think she looks capable of coping with the step up in class.
 

2.35 – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

12/13 – Carried 8-11 or more
11/13 – Aged 5 or younger
11/13 – Previous winners over 6f
11/13 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/13 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
10/13 – Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
10/13 – Had 5 or more runs that season
9/13 – Finished 5th or better last time out
9/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/13 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
7/13 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Winning Favourites
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/13 – Trained by David Nicholls
2/13 – Drawn in stall 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have best record
0/13 – Filly or mare winners

VERDICT: This race is always a good pointer ahead of the Gold Cup run a bit later on the card. Michael Dods won the race in 2012 so his Fendale is one to note – the yard also run Desert Ace. A good third last time out at York, only beaten 4 lengths, and is still fairly-lightly raced with just 8 career outings. The consistent SHARED EQUITY (e/w) (Bet here at 14/1 with Skybet) sure to run it’s race again and looks an e/w banker with Graham Lee riding. We’ll also take a chance on JOHARA (e/w) (Bet here at 8/1 with Betfair) – the horse was a close fourth to another of today’s runners, Eccleston, last time out and with a weight pull is expected to turn the tables on the O’Meara horse.

3.10 – William Hill Doonside Cup (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f CH4

12/12 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/12 – Aged 5 or younger
11/12 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/12 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/12 – Won at least twice before
9/12 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
8/12 – Won at Listed or better class before
8/12 – Rated 109 or higher
7/12 – Placed favourites
4/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/12 – Won by Saeed bin Suroor
4/12 – Winners from stall 2
3/12 – Won by a filly or mare
3/12 – Ran at York last time out
2/12 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/12 – Won last time out

VERDICT: A top race, and a lot depends if Eagle Top runs here or at Newbury. If he runs here then will take all the beating – if not – then the William Haggas-trained MUTAKAYYEF (Bet here at SP with Bet365) is the call. Paul Hanagan has been booked to ride this consistent 4 year-old and after a close second in a Group Three at York last time out will take all the beating if running to that form again. Of the rest, if the ground comes up soft then Top Notch Tonto is another to note.

3.45 – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Failed to win their last race
11/13 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
10/13 – Had 7 or runs that season
10/13 – Had won over 6f before
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
9/13 – Rated 90-100
9/13 – Came from a double-figure stall
8/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/13 – Carried 9-2 or more
8/13 – Had raced at Ayr before
7/13 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (2) or Haydock (2) last time out
6/13 – Winning distance 1 length or less
4/13 – Trained by David Nicholls (won the race 6 times in all)
3/13 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/13– Winning favourites (1 winning fav since 1980)
0/13 – Filly or mare winners
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 17/1

VERDICT: HIGHLAND COLORI (e/w) (Bet here at 20/1 with Skybet) took this race in 2013 and off a pound lower mark is respected. His namesake – Highland Acclaim – was a good fifth last time out a week ago in a similar race and is another to note, but I’m not sure draw 2 is 100% ideal. The Kevin Ryan team have a good record in the race – winning it 3 times in the last 13 runnings – and they look to have some good chances again. Lexington Abbey, Glory Awaits and BLAINE (e/w) (Bet here at 16/1 with 888Sport) are their three entries with the last-named looking the best of the trio. This horse was a good third in the race 12 months ago, but is 6lbs lower this time after a poor season. He gets in here with a light-weight (9-0) and Graham Lee is another plus in the plate.

Newbury Horse Racing Tips (C4/RUK)

1.45 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup (Registered As The Arc Trial) (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y CH4

13/13 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
12/13 – Priced 9/1 or less
10/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/13 – Had 4 or more career wins
10/13 – Aged 5 or younger
9/13 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
8/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Raced 5 or more times that season
8/13 – Raced at Newbury before
6/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Had won a Group race before
4/13 – Favourites that won
3/13 – Race at York last time

VERDICT: If EAGLE TOP (Bet here at 10/11 with Coral) turns up here instead of Ayr (also declared) then John Gosden’s 4 year-old will surely take all the beating. Second last time out in the King George was a solid effort that far out-weighs anything the others have done. David Simock’s The Corsican can do best of the rest.
 

2.15 –Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y CH4

10/13 – Won from draw 5 or lower
11/13 – Raced 3 or more times
11/13 – Won over 6f previously
10/13 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
9/13 – Foaled in March or later
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Won exactly two races before
6/13 – Won by an April foal
6/13 – Favourites (or joint) to win
5/13 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/13 – Won their previous race
3/13 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
0/13 – Filly winners

VERDICT: This looks to rest between the Godolphin pair – Log Out Island and RIBCHESTER (Bet here at 15/8 with Coral) – with preference for the later. Two seconds from his first two races were solid efforts and a recent runner-up finish in the Gimcrack makes him the one to beat. Add in jockey, James Doyle, picking this one over the other Godolphin runner is a further plus. The unbeaten King Robert and William Haggas’ Raucous are the main dangers.

2.50 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 1m2f6y CH4

11/13 – Won from stall 7 or higher
11/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/13 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/13 – Officially rated between 89 and 94
9/13 – Won at least twice previously
8/13 – Won over 1m2f previously
8/13 – Won from a double-figure draw
8/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/13 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/13 – Won by a 4 year-old
7/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price
5/13 – Had raced at Newbury before (2 won)
4/13 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Winning favourites (2 joint)

VERDICT: Top Tug was a good third last time out at York, but did look a tad one-paced in the closing stages for us. Luca Cumani loves to win this race (4 wins in the last 13) so his last-time out winner LAURENCE (e/w) (Bet here at 7/1 with Bet365) is the e/w call. This improving 3 year-old won well over this trip at Beverley last time out and a 5lb rise doesn’t look too harsh.

3.25 – Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y CH4

13/13 – Raced four or more times that season
12/13 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
11/13 – Came in the top 3 in their last race
11/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/13 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
10/13 – Aged 5 or younger
10/13 – Won a Listed or Group race before
9/13 – Won over 5f previously
9/13 – Won 4 or more times
6/13 – Previous Group race winners
5/13 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 2 of last 3 winners)
4/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Mare winners
4/13 – Favourites

VERDICT: Some old favourites here with Wind Fire and Justice Day the only past CD winners in the field. However, STEPS (Bet here at 7/2 with Paddy Power) won well last time out Doncaster in the Portland Handicap and if running to that level again will be hard to keep out the frame. Yes, this is a step up in grade to Group Three company but he’s won Listed races before, while this doesn’t actually look the best Group Three race ever run

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

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