Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends – Sat 27th Feb 2016
Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends – Sat 27th Feb 2016 – The C4 cameras head to Kempton Park this weekend, with the BetBright Chase their feature contest, while they are also at Lingfield Park for the Winter Derby and up at Newcastle racecourse for their Eider Chase.
As always we’ve got all the key trends and stats – plus free horse racing tips for the LIVE C4 races to help you narrow down the runners – we hope they help!
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Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)
2.00 – BetBright #realfansonly Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m CH4
12/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Placed favourites
10/12 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
9/12 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
9/12 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
8/12– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – French bred
3/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT:The Nicky Henderson team boast an impressive 31% record with their runners here so anything they run here should be noted, while the Paul Nicholls horses seem to be going well at the moment so the same applies to them. Henderson run the former flat horse Khezerbad, while Nicholls also has some ex-flat runners with two in the race – Pilansberg and Zubayr. However, the one to beat looks to be the Alan King-trained GIBRALFARO (Bet here at 11/10 with Bet365). This horse is 2-from-2 after wins at Kempton and Ascot and with that experience under his belt then, despite having to give weight away, might be hard to beat here and then head to the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in a few weeks – where he’s currently around 10/1.
2.35 – BetBright Best For Festival Betting Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y CH4
10/11 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/11 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/11 – French (7) of Irish (3) bred
9/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/11 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
8/11 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/8
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: In recent years this race has become somewhat of a Paul Nicholls benefit contest with the Ditcheat-based yard winning the pot a staggering 8 times in the last 10 runnings! MON SUCCESSEUR (Bet here at 5/2 with Skybet) is their runner this year and with several entries the fact they are opting for this one suggests they are expecting another big run. This 5 year-old was disappointing last time out at Cheltenham, but that was a hot race and on his run the time before, when winning at Ascot, would have a great chance here. Of the rest, course winner Cloonacool, who won well at Ludlow last time out, might do best of the rest if coping with this step up in trip, while we might see better from The Saint James, from the Jonjo O’Neill yard getting weight all-round.
3.05 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m CH4
9/10 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
9/10 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
9/10 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
8/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
7/10 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
7/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/10 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – French bred
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Trained by Alan King
3/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Some of the big NH yards – like Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Alan King have dominated this race in recent years – winning it 8 times between them in the last 10 runnings. With that in mind then anything they send to post should be respected but the King team, who won this in 2006, 2009 and 2012, might be the ones to home-in on and enhance their record – they run WINTER ESCAPE (Bet here at 4/5 with Skybet). This 5 year-old is unbeaten from two runs after wins at Doncaster and still holds an entry for the Supreme Novices’ at the Cheltenham Festival – where he’s around 16/1. Barry Geraghty rides for his boss, JP McManus, and heads into the race as the top-rated which makes him the one to beat. Of the rest, Welsh Shadow and Marracudja look next best.
3.35 – BetBright Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m CH4
12/13 – Rated 140 or higher
11/13 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/13 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/13 – Won a class 2 chase or better before
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/13 – Aged 9 or younger
9/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
9/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/13 – Rated between 140 and 150
7/13 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Carried 11-5 or more
5/13 – Aged 8 years-old
5/13 – French bred
4/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/13 – Trained by Tom George
2/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/13 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
1/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: This has been a race that champion-seeking Richard Johnson has farmed – winning it five times in all, while, trainer Philip Hobbs was responsible for three of those Johnson wins, plus that yard have won it five times in total too.
With that in mind, anything these two are associated with should be noted. Philip Hobbs has Champagne West entered, but Tom O’Brien rides and will need to bounce back from his last run when being pulled-up at Cheltenham. That said, he made a few jumping mistakes that day and was still travelling well when he made a bad error and seemed to lose all chance after that. A huge player if his jumping holds-up and the Hobbs team are sure to have done plenty of work with him since to get him ready for a race they have such a great record in.
Richard Johnson has been booked to ride a Tom George-trained horse though – ROC D’ APSIS (e/w) (Bet here at 20/1 with Betfred), who won well here last month. The George yard are also no strangers to winning this race as they’ve won the pot twice with their popular grey, Nacarat, but the big question will be the step up in trip as that recent win came over 2m4f, but still looks a decent each-way option around 16/1.
If we look at the key trends then having been placed in the top five last time out, raced in the last 8 weeks, aged 9 or younger and carried 10-13 or more are the best things to look for. These do whittle down the runners, but the one horse that stands out and ticks a lot of these stats is LE REVE (e/w) (Bet here at 9/1 with Paddy Power) Lucy Wadham’s 8 year-old was a nice winner at Sandown last time over this trip and a 5lb rise looks fair. Add in that he’s also a course winner here at Kempton and was runner-up in the race 12 months ago off just a 3lb lower mark, behind Rocky Creek, then everything points to a big run. With another year on his back he looks a slightly better horse this year and with form figures at the track that read 1-2-2 then it’s clear he loves it here.
Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/C4)
2.20 – Betfred "Still Treble Odds On Lucky 15´s" Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m CH4
8/8 – Raced within the last 3 weeks
7/8 – Unplaced last time out
7/8 – Rated 120 or higher
7/8 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
6/8 – Aged 7 or older
6/8 – Had raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
5/8 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/8 – Irish bred
4/8 – Placed favourites
4/8 – Ran at Musselburgh last time out
3/8 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
2/8 Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 7/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Brian Ellison team took this in 2014 and will be trying to win the pot again – this time with Zaidiyn, but this horse is now 10 runs without a win and has become expensive to follow. The Hobbs team don’t run many up to Newcastle so it’s interesting they send Draytonian up. They’ve given the horse 2 months off after running a poor race at Kempton last time out, but if bouncing back to the form that saw him win at Wetherby the time before then would have a chance. Lucy Wadham’s Minstrels Gallery is the only last-time out winner in the field so will be popular, but heads here 4lbs higher for that victory and this is also a step up in grade. Vendor is a consistent sort that should have a say too, but the pick here is HEATH HUNTER (e/w) (Bet here at 9/1 with Ladbrokes). The David Pipe yard have a decent 21% record here with their runners and this horse was a decent second last time out at Taunton. He gets in here off the same mark will like the soft conditions with all his career wins coming with give underfoot.
2.50 – Betfred Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f CH4
12/12 – Had won over at least 3m before
11/12 – Aged 10 or younger
10/12 – Carried 11-0 or more
9/12 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/12 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/12 – Irish-bred
8/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Officially rated between 131-139
8/12 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
4/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/12 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 10/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The last horse to win the Eider Chases back-to-back was Highland Wedding, who won the prize in 1966, 67 & 69, but the Ian Duncan-trained MILBOROUGH (e/w) (Bet here at 16/1 with Bet365) will be hoping to change that. He won the race 12 months ago and, yes, he’s rated 6lbs higher this year, but has clearly had this race as a firm target all season and will come here fresher than most of the other runners after being seen just twice this term (both in November). He’s been placed in the top two in 5 of his 12 chase starts and jockey Graham Watters, who claims 3lbs, gets on very well with the horse. Of the others, recent winners Russe Blanc and Ballyculla catch the eye, but both are up again in the handicap so another step forward is needed, while the Emma Lavelle-trained 9 year-old SHOTGUN PADDY (Bet here at 8/1 with Skybet) looks an interesting runner after his third in the Welsh National back in January. He gets in here off just a pound lower and although he unseated in this race 12 months ago, brings a bit of class into the race and is a horse that will love this stamina test.
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/C4)
1.45 – Unibet Hever Sprint Stakes (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y CH4
8/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/9 – Rated 96+
7/9 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
7/9 – Placed favs
7/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/9 – Had raced at Lingfield before
5/9 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/9 – US bred
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Mare winners
3/9 – Trained by David Barron
0/9 – Winners from stall 1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Blink and you might miss this. Run over 5f and with some fair sorts in action then we can expect a quickly run race. The one to beat on these terms is the top-weight Muthmir and from stall 1 this William Haggas-trained 6 year-old might be hard to peg back – however, we’ve seen no winners from this stall in the last 9 runnings. This will also be his first ever run on an AW surface so might just be worth taking on. We can expect Lightscameraction to be up there with the pace too – being drawn in stall 2, but the stats suggest siding with a horse that finished either first or second last time out. That trends applies to just four – Gamgoom, Take Cover, Boom The Groom and Russian Soul. All four have a small bit to find on these terms, and are all drawn middle to outside which is not ideal, but the one we like is GAMGOOM (e/w) (Bet here at 10/1 with Paddy Power). The horse was a close second here over 6f last time in a Listed race and the time before was another solid second at Chelmsford in a hot race. Martin Harley gets on well with the horse (ridden him twice) and there should be more to come with this just being his third run in the UK.
3.20 – Coral Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f CH4
13/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
11/13 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/13 – Had run at Lingfield previously
10/13 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
10/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
10/13 – Had raced at either Lingfield (6) or Kempton (4) last time out
10/13 – Winning distance – less than a length
9/13 – Placed in their last race
9/13 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
8/13 – Won at Lingfield previously
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the market
8/13 – Won their last race
8/13 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
7/13 – Won at least 6 times previously
6/13 – Favourites to win
The average winning SP in the 13 renewals is 6/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: A horse aged 4 or 6 year-old has won this race 9 times in the last 10 runnings, while 50% of the last 10 favourites have won the race. The boys in blue of Godolphin won the race 12 months ago with the classy Tryster and they look to have another great chance – this time with Festive Fare. This previous course winner finished second in the trial for this race recently and should be in the mix again, but the negative would be he’s yet to win over this trip. Therefore, the horse that beat him last time might be the safer bet – GRENDISAR (Bet here at 3/1 with Bet365). There was only ½ a length in it at the finishing post, but this Marco Botti-trained 6 year-old is a very consistent sort that loves it here at Lingfield. He’s won here five times and been placed many more times, while jockey Adam Kirby knows the horse extremely well and continues in the saddle.
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Thatsbettingtips Staff
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