Cheltenham Day 3 Expert Channel 4 Betting Tips

Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends – Saturday 5th March 2016 – The C4 cameras are at Newbury racecourse this Saturday that include the Greatwood Gold Cup, while they also head to Doncaster racecourse for the Grimthorpe Chase –  As always we’ve got all the big race trends and stats for ALL of the LIVE races, plus our free horse racing tips – we hope they help you narrow down the fields and highlight a few winners.

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NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (C4/RUK)

 

1.45 – Betfair Supporting Greatwood Veterans´ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f CH4

Just 1 previous running
Trainer Evan Williams has a 27% (+£23) record with his hurdlers at the track
 

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Only one previous running so nothing really to go on based on past trends. Really this looks to rest between the top three on the card – Cousin Knee Rock Gone and Spice Fair. All three head here off the back of good recent runs, but the one that could have more to come is ROCK GONE (Bet here at 10/3 with Ladbrokes). This 8 year-old has only had one run this terms after a long break so there is a good chance that would have blown away some cobwebs. He was a good second that day at Plumpton and with just seven career runs there should be more to come – Aidan Coleman rides.

2.15 – Betway Supporting Greatwood, Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 4 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y CH4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
6/7 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/7 – Aged 10 years-old
4/7 – Favourites unplaced
4/7 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
4/7 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
2/7 – Won their last race
1/7 – Favourites
David Pipe won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 5/1

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: 10 year-olds have a great record in this race – having won 6 of the last seven runnings so with that in mind Shotavodka, So Fine, Same Difference and MASTERS HILL (e/w) (Bet here at SkyBet) could be the ones to focus on. 4 of the last 7 winners also finished in the top three last time out so of the four mentioned So Fine and Masters Hill fit that trend. So Fine was a good third at Huntindgon last time out and off the same mark should make a bold bid, but the call is Master Hill. The Colin Tizzard team can do little wrong at the moment and this horse has run well at the track before. He’s been running in some hot races of late, including the Welsh National, so should find this a lot easier. Tom Cannon rides. Of the others, the Venetia Williams yard won this in 2014 so her runners Aachen and Relax could go well, while the Pipe camp, who won the race 12 months ago, will have Shotavodka and Houston Dynimo.

2.50 – Ladbrokes Supporting Greatwood Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m110y CH4

13/13 – Won over this 2m trip (hurdles)
12/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Aged 6 or younger
10/13 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
10/13 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
9/13 – Favourites unplaced
8/13 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
7/13 – Ran at Newbury before
6/13 – Rated 120 or less
6/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – From the top three in the betting
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Went onto finish in the first two in the County Hurdle
2/13 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Trained by Gary Moore
Royal Guardsman won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 7/1

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Horses aged 6 or younger have the best record – winning 10 of the last 13, while 11 of the last 13 had raced in the last 6 weeks. With that in mind the horse that stands out is the Philip Hobbs-trained GALA BALL (Bet here at 13/2 with Coral). This 6 year-old has won his last two starts and seems to be going the right way. Yes, this is a step up in grade, but the horse has only had 5 career starts over hurdles so there should be more to come. Of the rest, Wells De Lune was impressive last time out at Fontwell, when winning by 21 lengths, so despite his higher grade and a 7lbs penalty he’s another that seems to be improving.

3.25 – StanJames.com Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f CH4

12/13 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
12/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
11/13 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
10/13 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/13 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
10/13 – Won over this trip previously
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/13 – Officially rated 139 or higher
9/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
7/13 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
6/13 – Won by a French-bred horse
6/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/13 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
5/13 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
2/13 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/13 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
1/13 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: This race has been somewhat of a Paul Nicholls benefit race, with the yard winning the pot a staggering seven times in the last 13 runnings, and they look to have another great chance this year. Art Mauresque and Sametegal have figured high-up in the betting for the race all week and both seem to tick previous profiles of winners of this race. Noel Fehily will ride Art Mauresque, who should find this a bit easier that the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup that he ran in back in December at Cheltenham, while a 3lb drop in the ratings also helps. He’ll also like the better ground here and based on his win off this mark back in October would have a serious chance, but he does fall down on one key trend – 10 of the last 13 winners had finished in the top 5 in their last race (he was seventh). Therefore, of the Nicholls pair, their other runner – SAMETEGAL (e/w) (Bet here at 7/1 with William Hill) – gets the nod. This 7 year-old has been second the last twice and two runs back was a gallant second to the classy More Of That at Cheltenham. He’s actually 3lbs lower here too, while the decent Harry Cobden takes off a further 7lbs – meaning he’s 9lb lower than his last three runs. Trip and ground look ideal and although those against him will cling to the fact he unseated Sam Twiston-Davies the last time he ran here at Newbury, he was badly hampered that day so it can be forgive. On the whole he’s a good, safe jumper and should appreciate this slight drop in trip having been caught last time out over 2m4f at Musselburgh. Of the rest, the two others that standout based on the main trends are Ultragold and Un Beau Roman.

 

 

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (C4/RUK)

2.00 – Watch Live Racing On betbright.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y CH4

Five previous runnings
5/5 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
4/5 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
4/5 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
3/5 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
2/5 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/5 – Trained by Brian Ellison
1/5 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Paul Nicholls has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey James Reveley has a +£27 level stakes profit riding chasers at the track

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: A tight little race to get things started, with the Venetia Williams-trained Astigos sure to be popular being the only last-time out winner in the field. This 9 year-old was a 25 length victor at Wetherby last month and off just a 5lb higher mark looks a big player. However, this represents a two grade step-up so more is needed, while the ground will be a lot quicker here too (won on heavy ground last time). The Williams yard are also just 3 from 40 with their recent winners so the form of the yard is a bit questionable too. The Philip Hobbs team are going well at the moment though, so their Mountain King is respected despite flopping at Ascot last time out. He didn’t jump well that day, so the yard is sure to have done some schooling with him since and based on his second the time before to Mon Successeur would enter calculations. Pearls Legend seems to save his best for Sandown and Cheltenham these days, but is generally a consistent sort – the concern would be if he’s now a bit high in the ratings. Yorkist (Ire) was a fair second at Musselburgh last time out, but a 3lb rise makes life harder, so we’ll going to side with ULIS DE VASSEY (Bet here at 6/1 with Coral) here. Okay, the Dan Skelton team have a poor record at the track (1 from 37), but their horses are going great guns at the moment and at least this horse has been running in this grade of late. He needs to overcome a 195 day break too, but has won off having time off in the past and will head here fresher than most. Four of the last 5 winners carried 11-1 or less and were aged between 6-8 years-old.

2.35 – BetBright Casino Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m96y CH4

Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Aged 9 or younger
3/4 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
2/4 – Aged 9 years-old
2/4 – Favourites
Nicky Henderson won the race 12 months ago
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013
Nicky Henderson has a 42% record with his hurdlers at the track
David Pipe is just 1 from 22 with his hurdlers at the track
Trevor Whelan is 2 from 31 riding over hurdles at the track

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Nicky Henderson yard won this race 12 months ago and they be trying to repeat the feat – this time with Bear’s Affair and Sugar Baron. However, both horses have a bit to prove on recent runs and are overlooked here, despite the yard having a decent 42% record with their hurdlers at the track. On these terms the David Pipe-trained Fingertips will be popular as this 4 year-old gets plenty of weight and also heads here off the back of a fine second last time out at Ascot. Zeroshadesofgrey and Balmusette are both CD winners so are respected on that alone, especially the first-named of that pair as the Neil King team have had 4 winners from their last 8 runners. However, the one we like here is WHATAKNIGHT (Bet here at 9/4 with Skybet) This Harry Fry-trained 7 year-old is lightly-raced with just three career outings and was a close second on his hurdling debut here last month. With the expected improvement he’s taken to go close here.

3.10 – BetBright Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y CH4

Three previous running
3/3 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
3.3 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
2/3 – Won by the favourite
Trainer Keith Reveley won the race 12 months ago
Peter Bowen is 0 from 37 with his hurdlers here
Trevor Whelan is 2 from 31 riding over hurdles at the track

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Keith Reveley camp took this race in 2015 so their Samedi Soir will be trying to follow-up, but on these terms does have a bit to find with a few of these. Briery Belle was a nice winner at Huntingdon back in January and if coping with the step up from 2m4f to 3m here would have a shout. The Peter Bowen team are 0 from 37 with their runners at Doncaster so that’s not great news of you like their Hollies Pearl, but in contrast we’ve already mentioned the good form of the Neil King stable (50% strike-rate) and so their Minnie Milan catches the eye. Yes I Did will be popular too having won his last two in good fashion – and despite the Dan Skelton team being just 1 from 37 at the track this one is at least a past distance winner and that’s a plus in a race of this nature. Minnie Milan is the other. The Organist is another that might have some appeal, but was a beaten favourite last time out and the step up in trip is a bit of an unknown. We’ll stick with YES I DID (Bet here at 9/4 with Boylesports).
 

3.45 – BetBright Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f CH4

12/12 – Aged 8 or older
11/12 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/12 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
10/12 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
9/12 – Aged 9 or older
9/12 – Rated 131 or less
8/12 – From the top 3 in the betting
8/12 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
7/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/12 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
5/12 – Won their last race
4/12 – Irish bred
2/12 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
1/12 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 8/1

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: This day’s feature contest is next up – the Grimthorpe Chase – and with this race carrying a decent prize pot it’s no surprise some of the top National Hunt stables have runners. The Paul Nicholls camp took the prize in 2000 with a horse called Knight Templar and they did have Just A Par in this year, but that horse is a non-runner, as is the 2012 winner Ikorodu Road. So at this stage we are down to just 6 runners. The Druids Nephew is the class horse in the race, but he’s lost his way a bit since winning at the Cheltenham Festival last year so is overlooked here. In contrast, Drop Out Joe is in flying form after wins at Chepstow and Wincanton, but an 8lb rise makes life harder again here and he’s only just been doing enough in his races. Kim Bailey’s The Last Samuri is another recent winner after going in at Kempton, but a 9lb rise looks harsh, so will need a career-best to land this. But the call is BAND OF BLOOD (Bet here at 6/1 with William Hill). This horse ticks the key weight trend with just 10-3 to carry, and that could be a big plus in this ground. The horse was a fair fifth last time out at Warwick, but is down 3lbs here and this step up in trip looks a big plus for this former Mouse Morris-trained horse. It’s only it’s second run for the Dr Newland team so there should be more to come and will love the ground. Of the rest, the Alan King-trained Sego Success will be popular after winning here two runs ago, but needs to recover from a fall last time out, plus is 7lb higher than his last win.

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

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