Scotland open their Euro 2016 Qualifying with a daunting trip to World Champions Germany and we have free football betting tips.
With Scotland hoping to qualify for their first major tournament since the 1998 World Cup, it is perhaps surprisingl Gordon Strachan's Scotland have chosen to go into this game without a warm up match. Meaning the last actions we have seen them in was the pre-World Cup friendly against Nigeria at Craven Cottage back in June.
Germany meanwhile head into the game after winning the World Cup in Brazil. After the competition though key players like record goalscorer Miroslav Klose, centre back Per Mertesacker and captain Phillip Lahm have retired and a less experienced Germany side was thrashed 4-2 by defeated World Cup finalists Argentina in a friendly a few days ago.
Despite this defeat though, Germany are huge favourites for the game being priced up at 1/6 by Ladbrokes. Scotland meanwhile are the longest of long shots coming in at 16/1 with bet365. Whilst the draw is available at 15/2 also with bet365.
Lets be blunt if this game was played 100 times Germany win in 99 times. Scotland have little to no chance of beating Germany whether the match was played in Germany or in Scotland. Whether they are playing the full strength Germany side, backups or the under 21s. The gulf in class is too huge. Similarly, there is no point in backing Germany at odds of 1/6 ridiculous things happen in football all the time and a those odds the rewards don't make any risk worth it.
However, playing Germany in the first match of the qualifiers isn’t all bad for Scotland in fact it is the best thing for them. Under the new qualification rules the second placed team qualifies automatically and the third place side goes into a playoff (I know it's stupid).
If we take it for granted that Germany are going to walk the group, and they will, then the key to qualification is to not get hammered by them. Right now Gordon Stratchan would take a 2 nil defeat without a second thought. He might even take a 3-0 defeat.
What this tells us is that Scotland are going to set up ultra-defensively here against Germany. Furthermore, given the loss of key personnel and the come down in adrenaline Germany will likely experience post World Cup final I can see Scotland's strategy having some limited success.
Therefore, Germany to win and under 2.5 goals at 3/1 with William Hill looks like a great offer. If you want a bit more risk though Germany to win 2-0 is available at 6/1 with bet365. With Germany likely playing in second gear it makes sense to back them to win but no push themselves so 2-0 makes a lot of sense.
Now one thing this ultra-defensive system does do is make a Scotland anytime goalscorer an interesting proposition for the following reasons.
Against Algeria in the second round of the World Cup the lack of pace in Germany's back four was exposed and Germany were lucky not to be knocked out. Joachim Low mitigated this weakness somewhat for the rest of the World Cup by shifting Lahm from midfield to right back. Lahm has retired now though and this option is no longer available.
You can expect to see Scotland try the ball over the top to a speedy lone striker time and time again. This approach, if executed properly, will create some chances. As such the anytime goalscorer bet on the Scotland's striker looks well worth having. The chances are it will be Steven Fletcher who gets the nod. Fletcher is priced up to score anytime at 5/1 by Ladbrokes. As always though the trick will be to double check this by checking the teamsheet prior to kickoff.
Germany v Scotland Betting Tips
Germany to win and under 2.5 goals – Bet Here at 3/1 with William Hill
Germanny 2-0 – Bet Here at 6/1 with Bet365
Steven Fletcher to score anytime – Bet Here at 5/1 with Ladbrokes
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