Saturday's E/W Lucky 15 Expert Betting Tips

As we move into the fourth day of the 5-DAY Glorious Goodwood Meeting this Friday our horse racing tipping expert – Andy Newton – has all the key trends and stats, plus his free Goodwood horse racing tips.

We’ll be with you through the week to give you our best bets and tips, plus all the trends from the LIVE Channel 4 races at Glorious Goodwood 2015………

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Glorious Goodwood Betting Tips: Saturday 1st August 2015
 

2.00 – Qatar Stewards´ Sprint Stakes (Handicap) (Consolation Race for Qatar Stewards´ Cup) Cl2 6f CH4

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
12/12 – Ran at Goodwood previously
12/12 – Won at least 3 times during their career
11/12 – Won over 6f previously
10/12 – Had 4 or more runs that season
8/12 – Placed 4th or worse in their last race
7/12 – Favourites unplaced
6/12 – Winning Distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
6/12 – Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/12 – Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market
6/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
4/12 – Won by the David Nicholls yard
3/12 – Trained by Clive Cox
3/12 – Ridden by Adrian Nicholls
2/12 – Favourites (none in the last 10 years)
0/12 – 3 year-old winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1

VERDICT: The Dandy Nicholls stable have landed this contest twice in the last 5 runnings, including 12 months ago with BARNET FAIR (e/w) (Bet here at 16/1 with Boylesports). That horse has Richard Hughes riding and will be a lot better on this quicker surface after finding the soft Ascot ground against him last time out. Trainers Clive Cox (Musicora) and Richard Fahey (Canyari/Atric Feeling/Lexi’s Hero) are other yards that have done well in this race, so look for anything they send to post. Fast Track is another that caught the eye after a good second at Musselburgh last time, but the one we like is MAJOR JACK (e/w) (Bet here at 12/1 with Bet365). This Roger Charlton-trained 4 year-old has run some excellent races in defeat of late but is still fairly lightly-raced as far as sprinters go (just 13 runs) so there should be more to come – he’s also run well at Goodwood in the past.

GOODWOOD OFFER: Paddy Power will refund your bet if your horse finishes second or third in today's 2.00 – MORE HERE

2.35 – Educate A Child Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f CH4

12/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/12 – Favourites placed
8/12 – Rated between 85-93
7/12 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
6/12 – Won over 1m4f before
6/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the market
4/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
3/12 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12 – Ridden by Seb Sanders
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
0/12 – Favourites
 The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

VERDICT: Since 2007 the Sir Michael Stoute (Dartmouth) or Mark Johnston (Yorkidding/Novancia/Martiniquaise) stables have won this race 5 times between them so their entries are respected. We’ve not seen a winning market leader in the last 12 runnings, but 9 of the last 12 favourites have been placed. Look for horses that finished in the top three last time out too, and that also ran in the last 5 weeks. With all that in mind – SENRIMA  (e/w) (Bet here at 9/1 with Betfred) looks interesting. The Brian Meehan-trained-horse has won his last two, the last time over further, so we know he stays. He’s lightly-raced with just 3 career runs and jockey Richard Hughes, who rode him to victory two races back, is another plus in the saddle. Of the others, Godolphin’s ANTIQUARIUM (e/w) (Bet here at 18/1 with Coral) is another to consider.

3.10 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y CH4

12/12 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the market
11/12 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
9/12 – From the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Had won over 1m2f previously
8/12 – Won between 2-4 times
8/12 – Favourites
7/12 – Won a Group One race before
6/12 – Favourites
3/12 – Ridden by Tom Queally
3/12 – Trained by John Gosden (inc last 3 runnings)
2/12 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard
2/12 – Won by the Aidan O’Brien yard
2/12 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2
 
VERDICT: Not the best renewal of the Nassau Stakes, but on a plus we are likely to see the 1,000 Guineas winner – Legatissmo. However, for us, she’s had quite a tough season and has been turned-over the last twice when well-touted so is overlooked. The John Gosden yard could be the ones to follow here again. The trainer of the year so far has won this race for the last three years and he’s got another decent hand this time. He runs Jazzi Top and STAR OF SEVILLE (e/w) (Bet here at 7/1 with Paddy Power), with the last-named his main runner. Frankie rides and he’s unbeaten from three runs on this 3 year-old and after not being suited by Epsom he returned to winning form over in France last time out. She looks a cracking e/w option in a race that revolves around Legatissimo.

3.45 – Qatar Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
13/13 – Won over 6f
12/13 – Had at least 3 previous career wins
11/13 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
11/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/13 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/13 – Favourites placed (top 4)
8/13 – Ran at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
7/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/13 – Ran at Goodwood before
3/13 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
2/13 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/13 – William Haggas
0/13 – Winning 3 year-olds
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 12/1
7 of the last 8 winners came from a double-figure stall
7 of the last 8 top 2 finishers came from a double-figure stall
Since 1978 all bar one winner has been aged 6 or younger

VERDICT: The normal tricky, tough and competitive race to try and unravel, but on these terms the Charles Hills-trained MAGICAL MEMORY (e/w) (Bet here at 7/1 with 888Sport) looks sure to play a big part. This 3 year-old gets a nice bit of weight from some of the other main runners and Frankie Dettori riding is the cherry on the cake. The horse was a good winner at Newmarket last time out over this trip and looks ready to cope with the rise in the ratings. Of the others, TROPICS (e/w) (Bet here at 15/1 with William Hill) deserves to win like this after an excellent second in the Group One July Cup and should make his class tell back into handicap company.  

 

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

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