Full trends analysis and free betting tips for the 4.15pm Grand National at Aintree.
The Aintree Grand National is run over 4m4f and represents the ultimate test of both jockey and racehorse. Widely known as the people’s race it is the one contest that captures the imagination of the public and brings the nation together as racing fans for one day. A full quota of 40 runners will line up at the tape at 4:15 tomorrow and we have some trends to help try and find the elusive winner!
10 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 9 & 12.
10 out of the last 10 winners had run more than 10 times over fences.
10 out of the last 10 winners had won over 3m1f over fences.
10 out of the last 10 winners had run over 3m2f over fences.
10 out of the last 10 winners had won between 1 – 3 handicap chases.
10 out of the last 10 winners had at least 1 run between the 1st of February and National day.
9 out of the last 10 winners had run in a graded race.
8 out of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st 1lb.
8 out of the last 10 winners had an SP of 10/1 or lower.
8 out of the last 10 winners had won at least at Listed level or higher.
8 out of the last 10 winners finished 5th or higher on latest start.
8 out of the last 10 winners had run in the Aintree, Welsh, Scottish or Irish National.
Teaforthree (12/1 Betfred) has been the main focus of the ante-post punters and is the current favourite for trainer Rebecca Curtis. The horse finished third last year off a higher racing weight, despite that we haven’t seen much form from the horse and he falls down slightly with the trends. It’s not often we see a Gold Cup winner in the field but Long Run (14/1 BetVictor) has showed up to add a touch of class to the occasion. He would have a chance on his best form but we haven’t seen that much as of late and he will need to bounce back to win such a tough race.
Monbeg Dude (14/1 Stan James) has been well backed and it is likely we could see the ex-Welsh National winner go off favourite due to the considerable support. The trends say that this horse would be a major player only falling down on the fact that he has won more than three handicap chases but if overcoming that then he would have a big chance. Double Seven (14/1 SkyBet) is the lowest price Irish raider and is accompanied by Tony McCoy which has prompted his price to tumble. Despite this, the trends don't favour this horse and as such he isn’t particularly appealing.
Tidal Bay (20/1 Stan James) will certainly be a popular winner among racing circles and despite being 13, he looks to have retained all of his talent. Apart from the weight he carries and his age, he should put in a bold show and could run very well. Paul Nicholls sends Rocky Creek (16/1 Ladbrokes) who looks an interesting type who is open to improvement, however this may just be a year or two too soon and he’ll need more experience before going close. Burton Port (16/1 Ladbrokes) was once a live Gold Cup contender who’s price has been getting shorter and shorter and it’s easy to see why on past form. The horse has failed to reproduce that form of late but must be respected if able to reproduce it.
Away from the horses at the head of the market, the horses that meet 10 out of the 12 trends listed, include the likes of Prince De Beauchene (25/1 BetVictor), The Rainbow Hunter (28/1 Betfred), Chance Du Roy (33/1 Ladbrokes) and Pineau Du Re (28/1 SkyBet) who all look to have live chances.
Aside from those, there are four horses which clearly stand out – meeting 11 or 12 out of the 12 trends on offer. Across The Bay (66/1 BetVictor) has enjoyed a revival of sorts with a win at Haydock before unseating in the National trial but he will have to improve on his fourteenth place finish in the race last year so is best watched. Mountainous (50/1 SkyBet) won this year’s Welsh National and looks a live danger at a big price especially only being 5lbs higher than when claiming that victory.
The two runners who meet all the trends look like they will both go close. LION NA BEARNAI (40/1 Stan James) is a former Irish National winner and should see out the trip nicely after being reasonably competitive in a good quality race last time out. The horse is also a Grade 2 winner which shows he has the class to go with the stamina and the horse offers a good price and a solid bet. The Package (18/1 BetVictor) is well fancied and the Cheltenham form speaks volumes with both the Holywell and Ma Filluele, who he finished behind, winning very high quality races at Aintree yesterday. If The Package can get a clear round then he’ll go close.
As usual the race is going to be tough to call with so many potential winners but my four to look out for include – The Package, Burton Port, Pineau Du Re and LION NA BEARNAI. Hopefully one can give us something to shout about coming down to the famous elbow in the home straight.
LION NA BEARNAI (E/W) (40/1 Stan James)
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