Today's Cheltenham Festival Day 4 hrose racing betting tips

Grand National Trial Betting Tips and Trends – This Grade Three Chase is staged at Haydock racecourse each year and provides racing fans with further clues ahead of the Grand National. That said, the race is all but a trial in name as since 1980 we’ve not seen a winner of the Betfred Grand National Trial follow-up that season in the Aintree marathon –  Suny Bay, the 1997 winner, did go onto finish second at Liverpool in the National, while the 2005 winner, Forest Gunner, went onto run a respectable fifth.

We look back at recent winners and give you the key stats and our free horse racing tips to take in the 2016 renewal – this year set to be run on Saturday February 20th.

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Recent Haydock Grand National Trial Winners

2015 – LIE FORRIT (8/1)
2014 – RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (16/1)
2013 – WELL REFRESHED (9/2 fav)
2012 – GILES CROSS (4/1 fav)
2011 – SILVER BY NATURE (10/1)
2010 – SILVER BY NATURE (7/1)
2009 – RAMBLING MINSTER (18/1)
2008 – MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (17/2)
2007 – HELTORNIC (12/1)
2006 – OSSMOSES (14/1)
2005 – FOREST GUNNER (12/1)
2004 – JURANCON II (10/1)
2003 –  SHOTGUN WILLY (10/1)
 

Haydock Grand National Trial Betting Trends

 

13/13 – UK trained winners
13/13 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
12/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/13 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
10/13 – Aged 10 or younger
10/13 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
9/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Aged 9 or younger
9/13 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/13 – Rated 135 or higher
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5/13 – Irish-bred winners
4/13 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/13 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/13 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/13 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 10/1

FREE BETTING TIP: The Kerry Lee camp will be hoping to grab another big-race Saturday win here with their Welsh National winner Mountainous, who has been at the head of the ante-post betting market for much of the week. This 11 year-old was a mud-splattered winner of that gruelling Chepstow contest back last month and with conditions looking set to be just as testing at Haydock on Saturday then he’s certainly one that won’t shy away from a slog – 3 of the last 13 winners of this race finished first or second in the Welsh National last time out, while the yard also have Bishops Road, who was a good winner last time out at Sandown, entered.

That said, a lot will depend on how much that last race took out of him, plus a 10lb higher mark makes life a lot harder.

Recent course winner Cloudy Too, from the Sue Smith team, is another that the punters have latched onto this week and after his recent 15 length win at here at Haydock last time gives him a great chance – but is another that is now racing off a 10lb higher rating.

The race is billed as a Grand National trial, but it doesn’t have the best record of producing horses that go onto glory in the Merseyside Marathon – Suny Bay in 1997 took this and went onto finish runner-up in the 1997 Aintree National, is about as good as it gets.

In terms of the key trends to note then UK-trained winners have won ALL of the last 13 runnings, while the same amount had won between 2-4 times over fences.

11 of the last 13 winners were placed in the top three last time out, plus 10 of the last 13 were aged 10 or younger and had raced in the last 7 weeks. If we add in that 9 of the last 13 victors carried 11-0 or less then all of the above stats are the main trends to take into the 2016 renewal of the Haydock Grand National Trial.

In terms of trainers to look for the Lucinda Russell yard have the best recent record in the race – winning it three times since 2010, so their ONE FOR ARTHUR (e/w) (Bet here at SP with Bet365) is worth a small each-way interest off a light weight. The horse is a past course winner here at Haydock, and should find this a bit easier than the Cheltenham race he was in last time. The return to a longer trip is a plus and he’s won in testing ground.

Of the rest, Venetia Williams’ RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (e/w) (Bet here at SP with Bet365) is another to note as he won the race in 2014. Yes, he’s not getting any younger at 11 years-old, and needs to bounce-back from a recent tumble at Warwick, but was unlucky that day to be hampered by a loose horse and looked in the process of running a good race.  He gets in here with just 10-9 and so at a venue we know he likes and over conditions that look ideal he’s another that looks to have fair each-way credentials in a very open-looking event.

 

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Content Contributor at Thatsbettingtips.com
The team behind the betting tips, offers and promotions at tipster website thatsbettingtips.com.