Newbury 3.00pm betting tips: The highlight of this weekend’s racing is the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and we have free horse racing betting tips.
This race is steeped in history and tends to throw up a lot of clues regarding the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The field has been examined and we have tipped a double figure priced runner for you all!
This race has been won by some of the all-time greats; including Mill House, Arkle, Denman and more recently last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth. Guaranteed to be hugely competitive affair I’ve analysed a few trends that should help solve this difficult handicap.
– 9 out of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or younger
– 9 out of the last 10 winners had run at Newbury previously
– 9 out of the last 10 winners had won a Chase over 3 miles previously
– 9 out of the last 10 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or lower
– 8 out of the last 10 winners had won a Grade 3 race or better
Invictus (10/1 Betfred) is the betting hype horse having been heavily backed in the past few weeks. He has interesting form in the book after beating Bob’s Worth and Silviniaco Conti at the Reynoldstown at Ascot in 2012. Regardless of the fact that a literal reading of that form would indicate he’s chucked in at these weights, that was well over a year and a half ago. For a horse to come back from that length of an absence to win a competitive race like this will be very difficult and I cannot realistically back him.
Rocky Creek (7/1 Ladbrokes) also won the Reynoldstown last season before disappointing at Aintree on his last run when sent off joint favourites with Dynaste. Yet to have a first run this season, I don’t think this horse has the credentials to be top class just yet.
Our Father (10/1 Coral) is the leading contender from the David Pipe yard but can be a bit hit and miss by posting big runs in top novice chases on certain occassions whilst also posting disappointing runs in other races. This horse struggled at Newbury on his final run of last season and because of that other horses make more appeal.
Lord Windermere (7/1 Betfred) won the RSA at Cheltenham last year in fine style despite making a mistake late on in the race. The step up in trip will suit and if the horse handles top weight he could have the potential to go very close.
That covers the four market leaders, and although I respect their chances I think that some of the bigger priced runners have the ability to run very well. One sun horse is Houblon Des Obeaux (16/1 Coral) who, despite being beaten by some of his rivals previously, is improving with every race. Since he is only 6 years-old he has plenty of scope and I genuinely feel that Aiden Coleman might well regret switching off this horse after the race is over. His decision to switch to Katenko (14/1 Betfred), is certainly interesting in itself as the horse boasts a great record winning 3 out of 4 since arriving from France. He could well continue his rapid progress, however his past French form is there for all to see and I readily prefer others for this task.
Of the others, Hadrian’s Approach (12/1 Coral), Highland Lodge (12/1 Ladbrokes) and Merry King (12/1 Coral) have all run to a good standard without really impressing at top level. The pair of Willie Mullins’ trained horses, Prince De Beauchene (12/1 Betfred) and Terminal (33/1 Ladbrokes), will be trained with the National in mind. However, I wouldn’t put it past Cape Tribulation (33/1 Betfred) and Opening Batsman (33/1 Coral) returning to form sooner rather than later.
One horse who has caught my eye is the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner IMPERIAL COMMANDER (16/1 Betfred). I had the pleasure of witnessing his victory that day and I don’t think this champion is finished just yet. Nigel Twiston-Davies has had this race in mind for a long time and I will quite happily forgive this horse for pulling up in the Grand National especially off 11st 10lb. Despite recent form figures reading 2/PU, he has dropped from an official rating of 185 to 153 and should seriously enter calculations. The horse is sure to be 100% fit and always runs well fresh, if he can overcome the stats then I think that the great Imperial Commander will have as good a chance as any to rule supreme once again.
Hennessey Gold Cup Betting Tip
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (WIN) (16/1 Betfred)