Horse racing betting tips and trends analysis for the 3.50pm bet365 Gold Cup Chase at Sandown.
The bet365 Gold Cup Chase over an extended 3m5f is the traditional curtain closing event for the English Jumps season and has been won by some high class horses in the past. This year promises to be no different with a field of top quality runners, who amongst them have won a lot of the major Saturday races throughout the season. Here are the all important trends to look out for when selecting the winner.
10 out of the last 10 winners were rated 142 or lower OR 152 or higher.
10 out of the last 10 winners had run at least once since 1st March that year.
10 out of the last 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases.
10 out of the last 10 winners had run in a Graded chase.
9 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 8 & 11.
9 out of the last 10 winners carried no more than 11st 5lb.
9 out of the last 10 winners had run in a chase over 3m 5f.
9 out of the last 10 winners were either French or Irish bred.
8 out of the last 10 winners were priced at 9/1 or higher.
7 out of the last 10 winners had won a chase over 3m.
Same Difference (10/1 bet365) is currently vying for favouritism and based on the trends that market position is justified. The horse finished second in this same contest last season off a higher weight so is favourably treated here. The horse should be primed for the race but my concern is over his ability to show his best on the heavy ground.
Ardkilly Witness (10/1 bet365) represents Grand National winning trainer Dr Richard Newland and comes here off the back of a good win in novice company. The trends say the horse has a good chance but a lack of experience over extreme distances may be an issue. The ground however, is a definite positive for this horse.
On previous form, BURTON PORT (10/1 Betfred) is the class horse in the race and was well fancied for the Grand National before unseating at the second fence. That run shouldn't have taken much out of him, so he should be fit and ready to put in a bold show here. The horse meets the trends, gets the trip, and should be suited by the soft ground. Providing he puts in a clear round of jumping, he should go close.
Bury Parade (12/1 Coral) and Spring Heeled (14/1 SkyBet) are both progressive types who could potentially be very good chasers in time however, 7yo's struggle historically in this race and the trends are against these two.
Roalco Des Farges (11/1 William Hill) is a decent type and seems to be recovering the form which declined after a a second place finish in this race two years ago. Ground and trip shouldn't be an issue but the horse will need to improve again to win.
GODSMEJUDGE (12/1 Betfred) returned to form last time at a track he loves – Ayr, but struggled earlier in the year over C&D. The ground will be much more suitable today and if he reproduces the best of his ability he should run a big race.
Hadrian's Approach (12/1 SkyBet) has been well fancied for a number of races this season but never lived up to his hype. It will be tough to see the horse improving on its 17 length fifth place finish in this race last season.
Of the outsiders, Twirling Magnet (28/1 Coral) is interesting if able to adapt to the trip and conditions. Poungach (20/1 bet365) is weighted to run a good race but will need to improve to trouble the placings. Summery Justice (22/1 Coral) has run some good races in defeat in the Midlands’ and Scottish Nationals lately but looks second choice on jockey bookings for the Venetia Williams stable.
It is, as ever, a very tough race to decipher but the class and ability of both BURTON PORT and GODSMEJUDGE should give them a great chance here. Burton Port has dropped far enough in the weights and has threatened for a long time to run a huge race. Godsmejudge has conditions to suit and should have the necessary stamina and determination to be there right at the end.
BURTON PORT (E/W) (10/1 Betfred)
GODSMEJUDGE (E/W) (12/1 Betfred)
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