I’ve looked ahead to Salisbury’s Wednesday meeting and decided to get involved in two competitive Class 2 races giving two horse racing betting tips for Wedensday 2nd October.
After September proved particularly successful in terms of strike rate I’m hoping my good form continues throughout the month of October. At the time of writing the ground at Salisbury is good to soft, soft in places and with rain forecast I will approach my analysis on the basis that the ground will definitely have some give in it come post time. There are two races to look at on today's horse racing card.
3.55 Salisbury (9.5f – C2 Handicap) Betting Tip
The first race on my radar is a good quality handicap that has attracted 10 useful runners. At this time of year, as the flat season begins to draw to a close, it is imperative to note those horses which have been heavily campaigned and as such they must be approached with caution. Thoroughbred racehorses, like any other athlete, will peak at a certain point in the season and then in general struggle to recapture earlier form. When analysing a race during the autumn months remember that freshness can be a far greater advantage than a horse with prior good form.
Bearing this in mind; one of the horses I’m most interested in – MISTER IMPATIENCE, has had 10 runs so far this year. This colt by Hernando showed very impressive form when winning over 10f at Doncaster on soft ground at the start of the year. After that victory he was raised a hefty, yet fair, 11lbs by the handicapper but continued to perform well (in better company) finishing 2nd to the Derby winning Ruler of the World in a muddling 12f Group 3 at Chester, finishing 4th to the Queen’s Vase and St Ledger winner Leading Light over 16f at Ascot, and also finishing 3rd to the very useful Maputo at Hamilton over 11f in a Listed event.
It seems that his ideal trip is a little bit of an unknown but the way in which he won over 10f on soft ground at Doncaster I was very interested when I saw his name entered in this race. That day it seemed as if he would excel over a lot further than 10f. However, even though today he’ll only be dealing with an extended 9f, he must have a good chance considering the characteristics of Mark Johnston runners. Generally Mark’s horses do very well on stiff tracks where a horses’ stamina is put to the test. Salisbury is certainly stiff which takes some getting as it has an uphill run right the way to the line and he could be the best bet for the race.
As stated previously my main concern is the very real possibility that this 3 year-old, as hardy as he is, may well be exhibiting signs of fatigue. His last run was promising but the three runs prior to that were very disappointing as a drop in trip didn’t real seem to rekindle his old form. Certainly his last run showed him in a far better light but one surely has to be concerned out him performing well enough to win after running only 7 days ago.
With that in mind my attention turns to NABUCCO. The John Gosden representative has had a 63 day break after finishing a close second to one of the other challengers today – Viewpoint. Although he came second on that occasion he was kept out wide the entire trip at Goodwood, and Richard Hughes produced a fantastic ride to bring Viewpoint from the back and off the pace to land the spoils. Viewpoint has since struggled in similar events whilst remaining 3lbs higher than when he won. On that day he had a 7lb advantage over NABUCCO, whereas today the difference has been reduced to only 5lb. That 2lb swing could be crucial.
NABUCCO has won before on good to soft and soft ground so I don’t believe he will be too inconvenienced by the conditions. Although he is top weight he still seems out of the handicapper’s grasp and still looked progressive last time out. Hopefully the break will have freshened him up so he can be shown to best effect.
Of the others, Seussical would be interesting racing tip if he were fully fit after not visiting a race course for 117 days and if the ground was good to firm. King’s Warrior is still a full 7lbs higher than when he last won a race. Resurge is held on previous form by NABUCCO and is somewhat of an Epsom specialist. Redact seems an un-genuine sort who hasn’t won since 2009. Charles Camoin and Noble Gift are held on previous form by MISTER IMPATIENCE and both seem to prefer firmer ground. Finally Open Water could be anything, and the current form of his trainer Andrew Balding is mightily impressive but considering he hasn’t run for 149 days and his only win came when sheading his maiden tag I would want to watch this first run back before backing him in the future.
So in conclusion I’m split between NABUCCO and MISTER IMPATIENCE. Preference is only slighty for the former on the basis of his progressive profile and the advantage of the horse being fresh. However, a word of warning…both selections are likely to be up with the pace, especially MISTER IMPATIENCE, and if the two strongly contest the pace they may well both cut their own throats. On the other hand if MISTER IMPATIENCE is allowed to get an easy lead he may well make the race a true test of stamina and run the field ragged. Ideally NABUCCO will sit just off the pace and pounce late on when the race unfolds.
I’m happy to back both NABUCCO and MISTER IMPATIENCE for the win as they are likely to head the markets and be too short a price to offer any each-way bet value.
Racing Betting Tips
Betting Tip: NABUCCO
Danger: MISTER IMPATIENCE
4.30 Salisbury (6f – C2 Conditions) Betting Tip
My next racing bet tip comes in the very next race at Salisbury where EXPERT will be looking to pick up this conditions prize at his trainer’s local track. Richard Hannon has a liking towards sending his 2 year-olds to Salisbury and with a 21% success rate from 224 2 year-olds who have raced at the track I’m hoping this son of Mastercraftsman can oblige.
Small runner races usually tend to end up as tactical affairs which certainly suit some horses more than others, however here we should have a good mix of front runners and hold up horses. The top weight Justice Day could be one to lead as he finished a close second in a similar Class 2 condition event at Doncaster over 6f after leading from the front last time out. Another potential pace setter is the improving Desert Ace who made all to win a Class 5 maiden race at Sandown, the form of which has yet to be fully franked (although the fifth has gone on to win since). Finflash has had six races and has only won one when asked to lead from the front and dictate matters so similar tactics may be used today. The selection, EXPERT, also has a tendency to sit up with the pace and challenge for the lead (as shown by his victory second time out at Newmarket) however he represents a versatile horse who can be settled at the rear and switched off (as shown when losing out by ½ a length at Goodwood on his penultimate start). Figure of Speech on the other hand is most certainly a hold up horse who is best suited when there is a strong pace allowing him to use his long stride to best effect. Finally we have Complicit who has so far only raced in the middle of the pack so it is slightly unclear as to whether or not he would prefer to challenge for the lead.
Of the 6 runners, I believe that the weaponry and versatility of EXPERT gives him the best chance of winning. On his last run over 6f at Doncaster, Richard Hughes’ mount finished well in the final stages of the race where he was doing all his best work and staying on well over the flat course. As his only victory has come over 7f at Newmarket this stiff 6f track at Salisbury should represent the ideal challenge for him. His ability to lead from the front as well as comfortably sitting in just behind the pace gives his jockey the options to judge how the race is unfolding and adjust his mount’s style depending on what is best.
The others all have questions to answer. Justice Day got an easy lead last time out, something which is by no means guaranteed here, and still failed to finish the job off. He is proving very difficult to win with after coming second in two Class 2 conditions events so far is his career. Complicit may be talented, but he is far too unpredictable to back as evidenced last time out when he failed to go into the stalls in the Mill Reef (Group 2). Finflash may well be suited by this trip as he won going away over 5f but finished poorly over 7f last time out, however I’d be surprised if there wasn’t at least one or two in this field far better than him (only rated 79). Desert Ace is a colt from Clive Cox’s yard who won well last time out and has previous experience on this track but might struggle over a stiff 6f.
The main danger to our tip may well come from the Goldolphin representative, Figure Of Speech. This colt by Invincible Spirit has been keeping far better company of late and has both an OR and RPR far ahead of his rivals here. His trainer has decided to fit a visor on for the first time and that could well bring about the necessary improvement. However, in my opinion his low knee action leads me to believe that he favours a firm surface and a quick run through his form backs that observation up. His two creditable runs came on ground officially rated as good to firm; so although he is officially the best horse in the race the rain softened ground at Salisbury seriously puts me off.
For me these conditions events always prove to be interesting little races, irrespective of whether or not they are truly run. Nothing in this field is by any means bullet proof but I still feel confident that the Richard Hannon representative will be the first across the post. Although Desert Ace could prove to be difficult to pass if allowed to dictate and Figure Of Speech may well thrive first time out in a visor I’m hoping the quirky EXPERT has the natural ability to win this race well and justify his Group 1 Racing Post Trophy entry.
Racing Betting Tip
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