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Full trends preview and free betting tips for the 3.50pm Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster on Saturday.

 

The Flat season officially gets under way on Saturday at Doncaster with the traditional curtain raiser – the Lincoln Handicap over the straight mile.  The race is steeped in history and has been run since the mid 1800’s, rapidly becoming one of the most important races in the flat racing calendar.  I have put together some trends to help solve the unique puzzle that is the Lincoln.

 

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Trends – 

10 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 4 & 6.

10 out of the last 10 winners had won between 2 & 4 races previously.

10 out of the last 10 winners were sired by a horse which had been placed at Group 1 level.

9 out of the last 10 winners had not won a race higher than Class 2.

9 out of the last 10 winners were weighted between 8st 4lb and 9st 4lb.

9 out of the last 10 winners had won over at least 1m previously.

9 out of the last 10 winners had won off a handicap mark higher than any previous victory.

9 out of the last 10 winners had never run in a Group race.

8 out of the last 10 winners were rated between 90 & 98.

7 out of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or higher.

7 out of the last 10 winners had run in a heritage handicap previously.

 

In what is usually a very competitive race it is no surprise to see a group of horses battling it out for favouritism.  Off Art (9/1 Stan James) won three out of four races as a 3yo and has been heavily backed in the past week.  Despite the market confidence, his form hasn’t really worked out and he looks vulnerable.  Gabrial’s Kaka (8/1 Coral) has every chance with some decent form in the book but lack of experience in big fields could well be a crucial negative.  Another at the head of the market is Tullius (8/1 Betfred), a horse that the trends dismiss due to the fact that his high rating is likely to make claiming victory in this handicap a very tough ask.

The aforementioned trio of runners are also drawn high, something which I consider a negative as I believe that those drawn low could be the order of the day.  Horses like Balty Boys (25/1 bet365) who has a good record over 6/7 furlongs could well set a decent pace on that side of the track providing the perfect tow into the race for those drawn low.  Of those horses, Whispering Warrior (12/1 bet365) won the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton but doesn’t have particularly strong form in other big field races and may well struggle again.  Past race winner – Sweet Lightning (16/1 Betfred) should have a difficult job to claim victory at the age of 9, but another past winner – Levitate (14/1 BetVictor) looks to have a very strong chance.  He continues to perform well in races and meets a fair few of the trends.

Traditionally most winners come from near the bottom of the weights and Consign (16/1 Coral) for Jeremy Noseda looks an interesting type after a good 3yo season.  The horse will have to put up a lifetime best but looks open to improvement and should not be dismissed.  

Other horses that the trends favour include; Bronze Angel (12/1 Stan James) and Robert The Painter (25/1 Betfred).  The former had three very disappointing run last season, failing to finish near the placings, whilst the latter has struggled this season over in Meydan and will need to improve considerably.

JACK’S REVENGE (16/1 William Hill) has been a solid type and if able to improve on his fifth position finish here last year, then he would have a decent chance.  With the rain thats already fallen, and the forecast for more, his chances have improved as the horse stays well and could well show the ability needed to grind out the victory.  

Of those at bigger prices, the pair of Hi There (28/1 bet365) and Spa’s Dancer (33/1 William Hill) meet a good number of the trends and both look to have claims.  Hi There in particular showed some great form over further and on soft ground, traits which could well put him in the mix here if the race turns into a test of stamina. 

 

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As is the norm, the race looks fiendishly difficult with plenty of question marks over the ground, how the draw will play out and which horses will be primed for the contest.  If the rain continues to fall and the ground remains soft the race could be set up by the speedier types for the benefit of those stamina laden horses.  Of those, I like – Hi There, Spa’s Dancer, Levitate with JACK’S REVENGE as my main bet.  Staying on late into fifth position last year was eye-catching, especially after getting into trouble twice, and with added experience and a clear run this horse should put in a bold performance.

 

Lincoln Handicap Tip – 

JACK’S REVENGE (E/W) (16/1 William Hill)

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Content Contributor at Thatsbettingtips.com
The team behind the betting tips, offers and promotions at tipster website thatsbettingtips.com.