Free race preview, trends analysis and betting tips for the Mares' Novices Hurdle Finale, a Listed Limited Handicap event at Newbury at 2.55pm.
One of the feature races this Saturday is the EBF Stallions & TBA Mares’ ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle Finale over 2m5f. This is a listed handicap for top quality mares. 15 line up in what looks to be a tough and competitive affair which is normally targeted by top trainers such as Nicky Henderson and Alan King. Here are the all important trends to help you find a winner.
10 out of the last 10 winners had raced over at least 2m4f.
10 out of the last 10 winners had won no higher than a Class 3 hurdle previously.
10 out of the last 10 winners had no more than 9 previous hurdle starts.
10 out of the last 10 winners had won 1 or 2 hurdle races previously.
9 out of the last 10 winners had not won a handicap hurdle previously.
9 out of the last 10 winners were either French or British bred.
9 out of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6.
9 out of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st 3lb.
8 out of the last 10 winners had won over at least 2m4f.
7 out of the last 10 winners were rated between 115 & 130.
7 out of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or less.
Run Ructions Run (7/1 bet365) is well fancied for this and has some good form after a six length win last time out. She has improved on nearly every occasion but this will be a much tougher assignment, especially when you consider the poor record Irish bred horses have in the race.
Fairytale Theatre (8/1 BetVictor) is also well fancied for top trainer Paul Nicholls and will have a good chance after two bloodless wins. Age is clearly a negative trend surrounding the horse but, other than that, she looks to have plenty in her favour and should run well.
Toubeera (18/1 Stan James) heads the weights for an in-form stable and jockey partnership but the previous trends of the race show that it is a rarity for a horse carrying such a significant weight to win.
The entry of Toubeera also means that seven horses are running from out of the handicap. This always makes it a tough task but if any are going to make a bold effort from that position it would be Lily Waugh (17/2 BetVictor) and Joanne One (9/1 bet365). Both have reasonable form in the book, however they are both Irish bred and will have to cope with a number of trends that are against their chances of victory.
Midnight Cataria (12/1 Stan James) and Luci Di Mezzanotte (16/1 William Hill) are represented by trainers with good records in the race but on form, and the fact that they are out of the handicap, this should be a difficult assignment.
Massannie (16/1 William Hill) was beaten nine lengths by Toubeera at Plumpton a while back but has a big pull at the weights which may help. Despite this, it is a difficult task for a horse rated around 130 to win this race, something which would also strongly count against Mrs Peachey (10/1 Betfred).
A trio of the remaining horses look to have solid claims – Down Ace (14/1 BetVictor), Free Thinking and The Pirate’s Queen. The former was on fire notching up successive wins before being well beaten at Cheltenham and could well bounce back to form here. The trends do say though that horses that have won as often as this mare do struggle and she could be a tad too high in the weights to win this. FREE THINKING (8/1 Betfred) comes here in good form for Nicky Henderson and despite being beaten twice this season she could be on a workable mark. The trainer has a good record here and knows the type of horse to win this race which is a huge positive.
Free Thinking was beaten by The Pirate Queen (12/1 William Hill) at Newbury albeit over a lesser distance and The Pirate Queen is Alan King’s best hope on jockey bookings. She has been running in competitive good quality races without getting her head in front and has been given a reasonable mark. She would have every chance on best form in a tough, competitive race.
It looks a tough race to decipher with a lot of fancied horses running from outside of the handicap. The trends make it even more difficult as they have six horses closely matched. Of the likeliest winners, FREE THINKING appeals for a trainer who has had won this race on three occasions in the past ten years. Despite the difficulty of the race, Nicky Henderson looks to hold the key and his runner should offer a good price as well.
FREE THINKING (WIN) (8/1 Betfred)
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