The NBA season is upon us and I just want to give a few pointers for betting on NBA props. These are usually low limit ($1000) options but tend to offer a lot of value. I will go about a few ways to attack them in this post and hopefully, you guys can bank some extra money this season.
Ladbrokes offer NBA prop betting (or say they do!) so the odds should be up a few hours before the start of each NBA game.
A quick background on props. Most books offer props on every NBA game. Props such as Lebron James Over/Under 25.5 points, Steve Nash Over/Under 8 Ast, etc. I have found that with diligence and discipline you can hit these at over a 60% clip.
The three main things I like to look at when betting on props are, yearly average, recent performance, and situation. Very similar approaches when betting sides, these just refer to a player.
Yearly average stats are pretty easy to come by. This is the first number you should reference when looking at props. espn.com, nba.com, basketball-reference.com are all decent sources to pull this information. These numbers are your baseline for the day. You will adjust this number up or down based on a variety of factors which I will discuss further.
The second thing to pay attention to is recent play. For example, last year Kobe Bryant went through a 6 or 7 game phase where he just focused on assists. Every night he was getting 8-12 assists when his average was somewhere south of 6. This was an easy spot to exploit. Yahoo.com/sports has good “Last 10 games” stats that can help you determine how a player is trending. This is the first place you will adjust a number. Shading it up or down relative to where the average is.
The last thing to take into account is “situation”. Factors such as, total for the game (high totals indicate high scoring), defense (stats for defense are available on some sites), playing on back to back nights, home game, away game, etc. All of this information is readily available on a few sites on the internet and can be found with some digging. There is no exact science when it comes to adjusting numbers based on the situation but with some experience, it will come much more naturally.
Here’s an example of how I might approach a Lebron James prop:
Lebron season avg: 26.8 ppg
Last 10 games: 31 ppg
Playing at home where his average is 29ppg
Game Total: 209.5 (High total)
Opponent: Sacramento Kings (Bad Defensively)
Prop: Lebron James O/U 27.5 pts
I would take the over here based on the situation and recent play.
Like I said, this comes more natural over time, but it’s a really good way to exploit some bad lines at low limits if you’re into that kind of thing.
Any questions, just write me on twitter. Always happy to talk about this stuff @chrismunney
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