free newmarket july meeting tips

It’s a huge week at the HQ of British flat racing – Newmarket Racecourse – as their three-day July Festival gets underway on Thursday 9th. With LIVE action on Channel Four Racing each day then we’ll be on hand to cover all the main Newmarket races throughout the week – giving you all the key trends and our free top horse racing tips on each of the LIVE contests.


We start our Newmarket betting tips on day one (Thursday 9th) – Ladies Day – with the Bahrain Trophy,  July Stakes, Princess Of Wales’s Stakes and the Unibet Handicap as the day’s FOUR LIVE Channel Four races.


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2.10 – Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f CH4

13/13 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
11/13 – Failed to win last time out
11/13 – Never run on the July Course before
9/13 – Favourites placed in the top three
9/13 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
9/13 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
8/13 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
8/13 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 3 of last 4 runnings)
2/13 – Ridden by William Buick
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
1/13 – Winners that came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2


THAT’S BETTING TIPS: Trainer John Gosden is on cloud-nine this season with Epsom & Irish Derby wins, plus a Coral-Eclipse success already to his name so he’ll be hoping to get the Newmarket July Meeting off to a flyer in a race he’s won three times in the last 4 years. He runs MR SINGH (Bet at 10/11 with Coral) here and with his old-mucker Frankie Dettori doing the steering then the highest-rated horse in this Group 3 field looks the one to beat. This 3 year-old was a fine second in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last time but will find this slight drop in grade and the extra yardage to his liking. Of the rest, Godolphi's Future Empire (Bet at 10/1 with SkyBet) is the only course winner in the field so might give the pick most to think about.

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2.40 – Arqana July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f CH4

12/13 – Placed in their last run
12/13 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
10/13 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
10/13 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
9/13 – Won their last race
8/13 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
5/13 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
5/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
4/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/13 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/13 – Winners that came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

THAT’S BETTING TIPS: The Richard Hannon camp have won four of the last five runnings of this race, including the last three, so their Eltezam (Bet at 5/1 with SkyBet) will be popular based on that. Frankie Dettori rides for his retained boss – Al Shaqab Racing – and a recent third in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot was a solid effort. However, 10 of the last 13 winners of this race were won by 2 year-olds foaled in either February or March and with the Hannon horse born in January he’s got that negative stat to overcome. Elronaq was 1 ¼ lengths behind Eltezam on debut but has since improved to win next time out over CD so is another to consider. Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking for Ed Walker’s Experto Crede, who won well over CD on debut. However, AREEN (Bet at 4/1 with BetFair) was a head second in the Windsor Castle last time out (Steady Pace third), and over this extra furlong is the call. Jamie Spencer, who has ridden him in all three career races, continues in the saddle and looking at the key stats he certainly ticks more boxes than most.

3.15 – Princess Of Wales´s Arqana Racing Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f CH4

11/13 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 6 of last 8)
11/13 – Had 2 or more runs that season
11/13 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
10/13 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
9/13 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
8/13 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
7/13 – Favourites that were placed
7/13 – Unplaced in their previous race
5/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/13 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1


THAT’S BETTING TIPS: The key trend here to note is that 11 of the last 13 winners were aged 4 years-old. Therefore, is this stat is to be repeated then all of a sudden the 8 runners become four, with Second Step, Ayrad, Big Orange and Mahsoob fitting the bill. The top two-rated in the field, Hillstar and Second Step have only raced once each this season so fall down on the ‘have run 2 or more times that season’ trend. The Stoute camp have a great record in the race – winning it 5 times in the last 13 years so their runners – Hillstar and Gospel Choir – will certainly have their supporters based on that. It’s a tricky race to call as there is no real standout stat horse, so something will have to give. With that in mind we’ll take a chance on the improving MAHSOOB (Bet at 2/1 with William Hill) doing the business. Yes, John Gosden’s 4 year-old needs another step forward after only winning handicaps and prove himself over this longer trip, but his yard have clearly stated they think he’s better than a handicapper, while last time he looked as if he still had a bit up his sleeve. At bigger prices Ayrad (Bet at 16/1 with Bet365) and Big Orange (Bet at 40/1 with Coral) might be worth e/w savers if the 8 runners stand their ground.  


3.45 – Unibet Handicap Cl2 1m2f CH4

13/13 – Had won over a mile or further before
12/13 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
10/13 – Never ran on the July course before
10/13 – Won with 8-12 or more
9/13 – Failed to win their previous race
9/13  – Winners from a single-figure draw
7/13 – Won at a double-figure price
6/13 – Favourites that were unplaced
6/13 – Placed horses that came from stall 8
6/13 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/13 – Trained by Mark Johnston
1/13 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1


THAT’S BETTING TIPS: We end the LIVE C4 action with a tricky handicap but there are plenty of decent stats to take into the race. Having 3 or more runs that season is a plus, while 10 of the last 13 winners carried 8-12 or more – if those two trends are combined then DISSOLUTION (Bet at 5/1 with William Hill), Gibeon and Azmaam standout. The first-named is another Stoute/Moore runner and despite finishing only 8th last time out at Royal Ascot he wasn’t beaten far. The drop back in trip will suit, having won and been second over 1m2f the times before. He’s also been given stall 8 and with 6 of the last 13 from that draw hitting the frame this is a further positive for him. Of the rest, if you like your trainer trends then look no further than Mark Johnston – he’s won this race for the last two years and three times since 2007. Resonant (Bet at 10/1 with William Hill) and Mythical City (Bet at 8/1 with Bet365) are his two representatives this year.

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

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