Newmarket July Meeting Top Tips – Day Three

July 10, 2015July 10, 2015 Thatsbettingtips Staff bunbury cup stats, bunbury cup trends, july cup stats, july cup trends, newmarket trends, superlative stakes stats

It’s been a huge week at the HQ of British flat racing – Newmarket Racecourse – with their three-day July Festival – the action continues this Saturday for their final day. We are once again on hand to cover all LIVE C4 Newmarket races throughout the afternoon– giving you all the key trends and our free top horse racing tips on each of the LIVE contests.

See our Newmarket betting tips on day three (Saturday 9^th) – with the Bet365 Mile, Superlative Stakes, July Cup & Bunbury Cup as the day’s FOUR LIVE Channel Four races.

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2.00 – bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

12/13 – Won over 7f or further previously
10/13 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
10/13 – Had 2 or more runs that season
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
7/13 – Favourites unplaced
7/13 – Winners from stall 9 or higher
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
2/13 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/1

THAT’S BETTING TIPS: The Godolphin team took this 12 months ago and pin their hopes on Bow and Arrow and Good Contact here. However, 10 of the last 13 winners carried 9-3 or less and 8 of the last 13 were unplaced in their last race. Sir Michael Stoute has a great record in the race too, so with those stats in mind QUICK DEFENCE (Back at 8/1 with William Hill) and MUTASAYYID (Back at 14/1 with William Hill) stand out. Quick Defence is another Stoute-trained horse and despite running down the field last time out he wasn’t beaten far and should not be far away. Mutasayyid is another that needs to bounce back from a below-par last run, but with Paul Hanagan back on his back that’s a plus and a 49 day break would have freshened him up – it could be that his last race came a bit too soon.

2.35 – Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f CH4

12/13 – Placed in their last race
12/13 – Won over at least 6f previously
10/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
10/13 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
9/13 – Won their latest race
9/13 – Won by either a March or April foal
8/13 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
6/13 – Favourites unplaced
4/13 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/13 – Winners from stall 3
4/13 – Trained my Richard Hannon
3/13 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
4/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/13 – Trained by Mick Channon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

THAT’S BETTING TIPS: With 9 of the last 13 winning last time out that’s a key stat to note, while being a March or April foal is another key trend to consider. The Hannon team also have a great record in the race – winning it 4 times in the last 13 years, so their TONY CURTIS (Back at 10/1 with William Hill), who won well on debut at Epsom and is a March foal, is one for the shortlist – they clearly think the horse is decent to pitch him at this level after just one run. Mark Johnston runs two, but his Champagne City (Back at 11/1 with William Hill) has been impressive in winning his last two and could come out best of his duo. Taking Libertys could be anything after winning both his starts and has been freshened up with a 50 day break, while Aidan O’Brien’s Air Vice Marshal is another that will be popular in the betting coming from this powerful yard.

3.10 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

13/13 – Won over 7f previously
12/13 – Raced 3 or more times that season
9/13 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
9/13 – Priced at double-figure price in the market
8/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Priced between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
7/13 – Winners from stall 15 or higher
7/13 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
6/13 – Placed last time out
6/13 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd
3/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11.5/1

THAT’S BETTING TIPS: The key trends to note here are that 9 of the last 13 carried 9-3 or less, while 12 of the last 13 had raced at least three times that current season. 4 and 5 year-olds have the best record too – winning 8 of the last 13. Taking those trends into account the two that catch the eye are RENE MATHIS (Back at 25/1 with 888Sport) and SUZI’S CONNOISSEUR (Back at 20/1 with Betfair) The first-named is a previous CD winner and comes from the Richard Fahey yard, who have won this race twice in recent years. Paul Hanagan rides for his old boss and from stall 10 and just 9-1 has a lot in his favour. The other pick will be ridden by Pat Smullen and should find this a bit easier than the Wokingham Stakes last time. The extra furlong will suit and with just three runs this season will head here fresher than most.

3.45 – Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f CH4

12/13 – Aged 5 or younger
11/13 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
11/13 – Won over 6f previously
10/13 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
10/13 – Had between 1-3 previous races that season
9/13 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
9/13 – Raced in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee last time out
8/13 – Placed in their last race
7/13 – Favourites unplaced
5/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
2/13 – Irish-trained winners
1/13 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 9/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968

THAT’S BETTING TIPS: Looks a two horse race on paper between the Commonwealth Cup winner MUHAARAR (Back at 9/4 with Ladbrokes) with and the Aussie speedball Brazen Beau, who was second in the Diamond Jubilee stakes at Royal Ascot. However, the pick gets a handy 6lbs from Brazen Beau being a 3 year-old and that could prove the difference with them both rated 121. Of the rest, at a bigger price Astaire (Back at 25/1 with Betfred) might be worth a small e/w interest if you want a bit more value. The Kevin Ryan-trained 4 year-old was third in the Diamond Jubilee last time – only 1 ¾ lengths behind Brazen Beau – and at 20/1 would not be the worst e/w bet in the world.