November Handicap Free Tips and Trends – Staged at Doncaster racecourse this Saturday’s November Handicap is run over a trip of 1m4f, and, as the race title suggests, is run every November. The middle distance flat race is always staged on the last day of Britain’s flat turf racing season – this year run on Saturday 7th November 2015.
The contest was first run in 1876 and back then was staged at Manchester and Pontefract racecourses – it was moved to Doncaster in 1964.
It’s always been a very competitive betting heat, and one the bookmakers have loved in recent years with not many favourites winning.
In terms of stables to note – Trainer John Gosden has been the man to note – he’s landed the prize five times since 1991!
Looking at the recent stats horses drawn in stall 9 or higher have a great recent record, but be cautious of the favourites – yes, we saw a winning market leader in 2014, but before that we’ve not seen a single jolly win the race – in fact we’ve seen just one winning favourite since 1995!
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November Handicap Recent Winners
2014 – Open Eagle (15/2 fav)
2013 – Conduct (8/1)
2012 – Art Scholar (20/1)
2011 – Zuider Zee (8/1)
2010 – Times Up (14/1)
2009 – Charm School (17/2)
2008 – Tropical Strait (20/1)
2007 – Malt or Mash (5/1)
2006 – Group Captain (10/1)
2005 – Come On Jonny (14/1)
2004 – Carte Diamond (12/1)
2003 – Turbo (25/1)
2002 – Red Wine (16/1)
November Handicap Trends
11/13 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
11/13 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
11/13 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
11/13 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
10/13 – Favourites that were unplaced
10/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/13 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
9/13 – Placed last time out
9/13 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
1/13 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11.5/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor
BETFRED NOVEMBER HANDICAP FREE HORSE RACING TIP: At this stage in the week trainer Ralph Beckett holds a strong hand in the race with his Argus and Green Light at the head of the ante-post betting markets. The pair were first and third at Doncaster last time out and with a 3lb weight turn-a-round for just ½ a length then GREEN LIGHT (Bet here at 10/1 with Betfred) looks the value at almost double the price. Trip and ground will be fine and we know he acts well at the track. Being a 4 year-old he also ticks that key age trend, while if making the final line-up has a low weight with just 8-5 to carry. Of the rest, the Jim Goldie-trained MISTIROC (Bet here at 10/1 with Betfred) is another to consider after his recent second in that same race Argus and Green light raced in. The trio are very closely matched but the clear value is to play the second and third against the likely favourite – Argus.
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