With Europe’s premier middle distance race drawing ever nearer, 21 potential runners remain after the first forfeit stage on Tuesday morning and we have got racing betting tips for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
With bookmakers formulating a more truly representative market I’ve decided it’s worth having a look for the remaining value and taking advantage with a win and each way betitng tip before the all-important draw is declared.
Last week, after assessing the worthiness of Orfevre (5/2 Coral) as favourite; I confidently stated that not only was his position at the head of the market justified, but that he his price of 3/1 was far too big and represented a good bet. He has now shortened to a best price of 5/2 which is certainly a more accurate representation of his chances. In my mind he remains the best horse in the race and all things being equal he should go on to secure this prize for Japan. However in the last 10 years only 2 favourites have won the Arc; a statistic which, when coupled with the fact that most French races are messy stop-start affairs, encourages me to leave Orfevre alone at the current prices and instead to look to his competitors for the value.
For an each way prospect I turn my attention to the younger horses. When analysing any Arc field it’s important to note the recent record of 3 year-olds in the race. Since the 1990 running, 17 out of the 23 winners have been aged 3 with the weight for age allowance acting as a huge advantage. Of the 3 year-olds, I certainly like the chances of Intello (12/1 William Hill). His trainer Andre Fabre (the most successful trainer in the race’s history) recently told the media that if the horse stays he will have a great chance. Personally I believe that his victory in a Group 1 at Chantilly over 11 furlongs showed that not only will he stay the extra furlong but he may improve further over this longer trip. His jockey Olivier Peslier shares my confidence as he’s stated that he can’t see the trip posing a problem for this horse.
So, although I was happy to back Orfevre at the early prices the value has just about gone. If the favourite is drawn wide, as he was last year, his price will most likely drift and I will reassess whether or not to get involved again. With that in mind I’m happy to re-enforce my selections by backing Novellist for the win and Intello as an each-way bet.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Betting Tips
Orfevre (5/2 William Hill) – WIN
Intello (12/1 William Hill) – E/W
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*NB. Information is correct at the time of writing (01/10/2013)