Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends and Free Tips: The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is run over a distance of 1m4f and is one of Europe’s most valuable Group One horse racing events that is open to horses of either sex that are aged 3 or older.
Looking at recent runnings of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe the race have been dominated by the younger horses with 9 of the last 13 being aged 3 years-old, while nine of the last 13 winners came here winning last time out – can the winner of the race for the past 2 seasons, Treve, be the first horse to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe three times?
Horse racing stats expert Andy Newton has got all the key trends and free horse racing tips for the 2015 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – this year run on Sunday 4th October.
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Recent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners
2014 – Treve (11/1)
2013 – Treve (9/2)
2012 – Solemia (33/1)
2011 – Danedream (20/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/6 fav)
2008 – Zarkava (13/8 fav)
2007 – Dylan Thomas (11/2)
2006 – Rail Link (4/7 fav)
2005 – Hurricane Run (11/4)
2004 – Bago (10/1)
2003 – Dalakhani (9/4)
2002 – Marienbard (158/10)
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends and Stats
12/13 – Had won a Group 1 race before
11/13 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
11/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/13 – Had 4 or more runs that season
10/13 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/13 – Had run at Longchamp before
9/13 – Had won at least 5 times before
9/13 – Won last time out
9/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Aged 3 years-old
9/13 – Had won at Longchamp previously
8/13 – Won by a French-based yard
7/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Ran at Longchamp last time out
5/13 – Female winners
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Won by a UK-based yard
2/13 – Trained by Andre Fabre
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 9/1
Since 1976 we’ve seen just 2 winners aged 5 or older
16 of the last 21 winners were aged 3 years-old
Trainer Andre Fabre has won the race 7 times
Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Free Horse Racing Tips: There has been a bit of money this week for the Epsom Derby winner, Golden Horn, as John Gosden’s charge looks to follow in the footsteps of Workforce and Sea the Stars, who both took this race in their Derby-winning years.
If we look at the stats we’ll see that horses aged 3 or 4 years-old have won the last 12 renewals – with the last 5 year-old winner being in 2002. That’s a negative stat against the hot favourite, Treve, who is now a 5 year-old, as she will be hoping to win the race for a third year on the spin and be the first horse to land the prize three times. The horse has won three times this season, including an easy victory last time out Group One Prix Vermeille at Longcamp and after that decisive win is the clear market leader with the bookmakers at around Evs – the last winning favourite was Sea The Stars in 2009, while the average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 9/1.
Treve will have to give weight away to the 3 year-olds, so that won’t be easy either. We’ve briefly touched on GOLDEN HORN (BET HERE AT 5/1 WITH LADBROKES), who’s only blot on his copybook came in the Juddmonte Stakes at York. However, he got back to winning ways in the Irish Champion Stakes in September and the drying ground will certainly be in his favour. The step back up to 1m4f looks sure to suit and despite having a hard season for such a young horse he clearly takes his racing well and looks a big threat to Treve’s hat-trick=seeking challenge. Should he be successful he’ll be John Gosden’s first winner in the race, and jockey, Frankie Dettori’s, fourth.
Of the rest, the Andre Fabre-trained New Bay is another big player. Being a 3 year-old he’s another that gets weight from Treve and heads here at the top of his game – winning his last three. The most recent of those came here at Longchamp on trials day in the Prix Niel over the Arc trip. The Fabre yard have won this race a monster seven times so clearly know exactly what’s required to land this prize will be another popular choice against the favourite.