Racing Post Trophy Betting Tip: The Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster is the highlight of this weekend’s flat racing and we have got free racing tips for Saturday.
Not only does the race represent the final Group 1 race of the season but it also represents the final opportunity for the top 2 year-olds to go head to head before their respective classic seasons get under way next year. As you would expect, the race has attracted a strong field and; with over half of the field winning on their last starts, looks to be a highly competitive event.
Since 2009 Aiden O’Brien has only lost this race once and that came in 2010 when Casamento beat his runner Seville by ¾ of a length. For this renewal he has sent over another strong team to follow on from last year’s success with Kingsbarns. His three entrants consist of: Johann Strauss (14/1 Boylesports) who is yet to shed his maiden tag; Buonarroti (16/1 William Hill) who won his last race at Tipperary by 8 ½ lengths, and the stable first string; the extremely well-bred Montjeu colt, Century (4/1 Bet365). The latter shed his maiden tag the first time of asking at the Curragh where he was a comfortable 1 ½ lengths winner over the well-supported favourite Marakoush who hails from the John Oxx yard. Century sat in mid-field throughout the race stalking the pace, and although at times he showed signs of greenness, he responded well to Joseph’s urgings and went on to win looking as if he would progress. Aiden went on to state after the race that the horse was green and would learn a lot from the race; something which is certainly a point to note for the Trophy.
Throughout the year Aiden O’Brien and Richard Hannon have been battling it out for the trainer’s championship and thanks to the success of Olympic Glory on Champions Day it seems that the title will remain on English shores. The trainer champion elect may well have withdrawn Toormore, but he has left in another Middleham Park promising juvenile in the form of Chief Barker (8/1 Boylesports). This colt has won every one of his three starts and beat Chrisellium in a Listed event at Haydock last time out. The runner up franked the form massively as she went on to win the Shadwell Mile Fillies Group 1 impressively. Chief barker has an official rating of 103, handles ground with cut in it and certainly looks progressive. He could well step up to the task and put up a strong challenge.
Another interesting runner is the Roger Varian representative, Kingston Hill (7/2 Betfred). This horse has arguably some of the best form in the race as he won a competitive Group 3 two weeks ago at Newmarket on good to soft ground. On that day he exhibited signs of greenness throughout the race, was the first to really come under pressure and didn’t look like he particularly enjoyed the undulations of Newmarket. Nevertheless his class told and he powered up the hill to a 2 length win. His style is certainly that of a big galloping type and the flat, wide Doncaster course is certainly going to play into his hands as Andrea Atzeni will have plenty of time to stoke him up and get him motoring.
Godolphin won this race in 2007 and look to have a good chance this year with Pinzolo (4/1 William Hill). This son of Monsun certainly handles soft ground winning on his last start at Newbury in a 2 year old conditions event where he beat the strong fancied favourite Red Galileo by a head whilst giving him 4lbs. The form of both of his starts has worked out well with both of the runners-up going on to win since their respective defeats.
Another contender with a strong chance is the Mark Johnston runner Somewhat (8/1 BetVictor). This horse has the most experience in the field and again arguably some of the best form on offer. He lost by a neck to impressive Chesham Stakes winner Berkshire on his last start in a Group 2 at Newmarket after winning a Listed event at Newbury where he beat a good quality field by 4 ½ lengths. Although he has so far only run on ground good or firmer, his high knee action would certainly lead you to believe that he would be better suited by a softer surface and there may well be improvement still to come.
The remainder of the field is made up of the The Grey Gatsby (18/1 Coral), Snow Sky (12/1 Stan James), Dolce N Karama (200/1 BetVictor) and Altruistic (16/1 bet365). The first from this group is a horse who has shown his best form on very fast ground and will probably not be suited by the underfoot conditions. Snow Sky won in eye-catching fashion in heavy ground at Salisbury, although he beat only very low grade opposition. Dolce N Karama has only had one start and that resulted in him finishing a distant 4th in a very poor maiden at Wolverhampton. Finally there is Altrusitic who is held on a form line through Oklahoma City by Kingston Hill.
Undeniably this is an ultra-competitive race. With three of the horses at the head of the market being supplemented by their respective owners, coupled with the fact that the ground is likely to be dead this doesn’t appeal as a serious betting prospect. Of the 11 runners though, I was most impressed with the attitude and class shown by Kingston Hill in both of his two runs to date. This big galloping horse should be ideally suited by the conditions on Saturday. He has form on soft ground and will hopefully relish the flat, wide Doncaster home straight. Although he races lazily, and will have to be kept up to his work to win, he shows a good attitude when asked a question and has plenty in reserve. The leading danger should come in the form of Century who I can imagine has been laid out by Aiden O’Brien for this race, however on the face of what each horse has achieved to date I’d prefer to side with the Roger Varian runner. I admit that my selection is made more in hope rather than expectation; but of the runners I think Kingston Hill has a good a chance as any to run well, make the frame and hopefully win.
Racing Post Trophy Betting Tip
Kingstone Hill to win – 7/2 with Betfred
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