Saturday Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 19th December 2015
Saturday Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 19th December 2015 More good winners last weekend – Another huge Saturday ahead with the Ladbroke and Long Walk Hurdles the feature races at the Ascot racecourse, plus the C4 camears are also at Haydock Park racecourse for two races, including the Tommy Whittle Chase – As always we’ve got all the C4 TV trends and our free horse racing tips.
Horse racing betting expert, Andy Newton, gives you his free horse racing tips and stats this Saturday 19th Dec 2015 across the LIVE C4 races from Ascot & Haydock racecouses.
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Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/C4)
1.50 – BGC Partners Handicap Chase Cl3 2m1f CH4
7/7 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
6/7 – Aged 7 or older
6/7 – Officially Rated between 130-137
6/7 – Won at least twice over fences previously
6/7 – Won a chase race over 2m1f previously
5/7 – French bred
5/7 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting
3/7 – Won their last race
2/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Trained by Venetia Williams
1/7 – Favourites
Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Paul Nicholls has a 23% with his chasers at the track
Nigel Twiston-Davies is only 2 from 27 over fences here
Philip Hobbs is just 3 from 39 with his chasers here
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Paul Nicholls has a good record at the track so anything he runs here should be respected, while in contrast the Philip Hobbs team have struggled a bit here with their runners – just 3 winners from their last 39 at the time of writing. The Venetia Williams yard do well in this race and at this stage of the week have two entered Marcilhac and Arthur’s Oak. Both are returning from long lay-offs but with the stable doing well in this event if either run we can expect them to be fit and well. However, we were impressed with MALIBU SUN (e/w) (Bet here at 11/1 with Coral) last time out at Sandown. The Ben Pauling yard have made a great start to the season and this horse was only just touched-off last time out. Yes, a 7lb rise makes life harder but the front two pulled 13 lengths clear that day so there might be more to come.
2.25 – JLT Long Walk Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m1f CH4
13/13 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
13/13 – Went onto compete in that season’s World Hurdle (4 won, 4 runners-up, 3 unplaced)
12/13 – French-bred horse
11/13 – Finished in the top three in their last race
11/13 – Placed Favourites
10/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
10/13 – Won at least 5 times over hurdles previously
9/13 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
8/13 – Ran at Newbury last time out
7/13 – Favourites
6/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 12 runnings is 9/2
Note:
2009 and 2010 runnings – Newbury
2005 running – Chepstow
2004 running –Windsor
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: An intriguing contest here with last year’s first two home – REVE DE SIVOLA (Bet here at 9/2 with Paddy Power) and Saphir Du Rheu – entered again, while the improving Thistlecrack is also a big player if making the line-up too. 12 months ago the Nick Williams-trained Reve de Sivola won his third Long Walk Hurdle by ½ a length and despite now being 10 years-old he’s landed this race for the past three years so clearly enjoys it here at Newbury and at this time of year. Nick Williams’ stayer has had the same build-up as last term after running in France last month. With that run under his belt he will head here spot-on in his bid to go one better than the three wins Big Buck’s notched in this race from 2009-2011. Okay, Saphir de Rheu is a classy horse and with time on his side there should be more to come, but despite having a lot of weight in the Hennessy last time out was still a bit disappointing. He’s clearly a talented horse, but just needs to be a bit more consistent. The Nicholls camp are going for a similar battle plan with this horse to the one they adopted for Big Buck’s – like Bucks this horse has not quite hitting the heights over fences so it could be his future lies over the smaller obstacles, and at just 6 years-old is still a horse with a massive future. If he does win this the Ladbrokes World Hurdle, a race he’s 10/1 for, would surely be his festival target. Of the others, Thistlecrack, was a 6 length winner over Deputy Dan here at Newbury last month in the Long Distance Hurdle. This Colin Tizzard-trained 7 year-old is a very exciting prospect in these staying hurdles and seems to love these soft conditions – he’ll certainly be no back number but we’d prefer to side with the winner of this race for the past three seasons – Reve De Sivola – and make it a remarkable four wins in this race.
Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Paul Nicholls has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track
Alan King has a +£60 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the track
Gordon Elliott is 2 from 3 with his hurdles runners at the track
Nick Williams has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Willie Mullins has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track
Sam Twiston-Davies is 1-from-36 riding over hurdles at the track
3.00 – Sodexo Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m CH4
10/10 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
7/10 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
7/10 – Won by a French bred horse
7/10 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/10 – Raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/10 – Ran at Ascot previously
6/10 – Placed Favourites
5/10 – Won at least 5 times over fences
4/10 – Aged 7 years-old
4/10 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/10 – Priced at double-figure price in the betting
3/10 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/10 – Trained by Henry Daly
The Young Master won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 10/1
Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor
Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Neil Mulholland has a 33% record with his chasers here
Nicky Henderson has a 28% record over fences here
Paul Nicholls has a 23% record over fences here
Philip Hobbs is just 3 from 39 with his chasers here
Barry Geraghty has a 30% record riding over fences here
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Pendra was a good winner over CD last time out and off a 7lb higher mark looks a big player. The ground will be softer here, but this Charlie Longsdon-trained 7 year-old has won in heavy ground in the past and in Barry Geragthy the horse will have every assistance from the saddle. However, the horse we like here is last year’s winner THE YOUNG MASTER (e/w) (Bet here at 15/2 with Betway). Neil Mulholland’s 6 year-old was last seen unseating in the Hennessy Gold Cup when in midfield. It was too early to know what the horse would have done there, but was only 7 lengths behind Saphir Du Rheu the time before at Carlisle. Sam Waley-Cohen’s 3lb claim will help and we know the horse handles these conditions and this track. At just 6 years-old there should be a lot more to come and was thought good enough to run in the RSA Chase at last season’s Cheltenham Festival.
3.35 – The Ladbroke (A Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m CH4
11/11 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
11/11 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles)
10/11 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
9/11 – Ran within the last 2 months
8/11 – Unplaced favourites
7/11 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
7/11 – Returned 12/1 or bigger in the betting
7/11 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
6/11– Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
5/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/11 – Trained by the Pipe stable
1/11 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 15/1
Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Harry Fry is 8 from 12 (67%) with his hurdlers at the track
Gordon Elliott is 2 from 3 with his hurdles runners at the track
Nick Williams has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jonjo O’Neill is just 1 from 23 with his hurdlers here
Wayne Hutchinson has a 31% record riding over hurdlers here
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: The normal tough contest here but there are a lot of big stats to take into the race that can hopefully help whittle down the field to a more sizable amount. They Harry Fry team have a cracking 45% strike-rate with their runners at the course so their runner, JOLLY’S CRACKED IT (Bet here at 7/1 with William Hill), will certainly be a popular pick. This 6 year-old is a proven winner over CD here and will be bundles better for his recent third at the track behind the decent Nabucco. He’s now run at Ascot three times during his career – winning twice and finishing third on the other occasion. Softer conditions will not be a problem and jockey Noel Fehily was booked earlier in the week – which might also be considered another good sign – so Jolly’s Cracked It is the call here. Of the others, the Alan King-trained Winner Massagot is another that has figured high up in the ante-post betting market and comes here off the back of a easy victory at the Berkshire course last month. However, at just 4 years-old there is a big negative stat against him with ALL of the last 11 winners being aged between 5-7 years-old. Finally, anything the Nicky Henderson & David Pipe stables run should also be noted – as they’ve targeted this race with success six times between them in the last 11 runnings.
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)
2.05 – nationwidevehiclecontracts.co.uk Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m2f191y CH4
8/8 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
8/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Aged 7 or younger
6/8 – Won 1-2 times over hurdles before
6/8 – Favourites placed
6/8 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
5/8 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/8 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/8 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
4/8 – Raced at either Newbury (2) or Haydock (2) last time out
4/8 – Raced at Haydock before
3/8 – French bred
3/8 – Favourites
2/8 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 6/1
Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Jonjo O’Neill is only 2 from 38 with his hurdlers at the track
Sue Smith is just 2 from 39 with his hurdlers at the track
Tom O’Brien has a 24% record riding over hurdles at the track
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: The Tom George yard have a decent 21% record with their runners here at the track so his Baby King will be popular if making the final line-up. The horse was a good winner last time out at Haydock but a 6lb rise doesn’t look too harsh. We expect better from Dan Skelton’s Istimraar, but with the Philip Hobbs yard going great guns at the moment their THREE FACES WEST (Bet here at 10/3 with Ladbrokes) is the pick. Yes, this horse needs to overcome a 276-day absence, but this former Donald McCain-trained 7 year-old won his last three and with another summer on his back could have a good season ahead. Conditions look ideal and the soft ground should suit too.
2.40 – Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m CH4
8/8 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
8/8 – Didn’t win their last race
7/8 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
7/8 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
7/8 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
5/8 – Placed Favourites
5/8 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
5/8 – Ran at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
3/8 – Ridden by jockey Tom O’Brien
2/8 – French bred
2/8 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/8 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/8 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (both unplaced)
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 13/2
Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Tom George has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Nigel Twiston-Davies is only 2 from 40 over fences here
Venetia Williams is just 4 from 48 over fences here
Note: All jockey and trainer stats correct as 18th Dec 15
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: With heavy ground looking likely here then staying will be a big asset in this race. The Dan Skelton-trained Wilton Milan was a good winner last time out at Lingfield – but to us it looked as if he had a hard day at the office that day, especially in very heavy ground so there is a chance those excursions took a fair bit out of the horse. Looking at the key trends – ALL of the last 8 winners of this race DIDN’T win their most recent outing. Therefore, with that stat in mind the one we like is the Malcolm Jefferson-trained SUN CLOUD (e/w) (Bet here at 7/1 with Bet365). This 8 year-old has a lot of the key trends on his side and after a good second last time out at the track will head here spot-on. We know the horse stays further than this so that will be a big asset in these conditions and a 2lb rise for that recent run doesn’t look too bad. Jockey Brian Hughes also knows the horse extremely well after riding him in his last 17 races, so looks a good each-way call here.
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Thatsbettingtips Staff
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