Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips: 23rd April 16
Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips: 23rd April 16 – The C4 cameras head to Sandown Park racecourse this weekend, with the end of the jumps season Bet365 Gold Cup fixture. With trainers Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins still able to land the UK trainers' title then there will be plenty at stake and plenty of star name horses on show. The cameras are also at Haydock Park racecourse & Ripon racecourse.
As always we’ve got all the key trends and stats – plus free horse racing tips for the LIVE C4 races to help you narrow down the runners – we hope they help!
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SANDOWN HORSE RACING TRENDS (C4/RUK)
2.25 – bet365 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m110y CH4
Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Carried 11-1 or more
4/4 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
4/4 – Rated between 131 and 134 (inc)
3/4 – Returned between 9/2 and 9/1
3/4 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
1/4 – Winning favourite
Donald McCain won the race in 2012 and 2014
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013
Nicky Henderson has a 29% record over hurdles at the track
Willie Mullins is 2 from 6 with his hurdlers at the track
Aidan Coleman is just 1 from 44 riding over hurdles at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: DUKE STREET (E/W) (Bet here at 8/1 with William Hill) is the only last-time out winner in the field so might be worth sticking with. This former fair flat performer was an 8 length winner at Newbury last time out and despite being raised a big-looking 12lbs clearly heads here in top form. He’s generally a consistent sort with his only bad run coming in the ultra-competitive Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival – and even then we still finished a respectable 9th of 22. Of the rest, Darebin is the only previous CD winner in the field so commands respect, while the Paul Nicholls yard, who will be chasing winners at the meeting pin their hopes on the unexposed Tommy Silver.
3.00 – bet365 Oaksey Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f CH4
Just 2 previous running
Menorah won the race in 2014 & 2015
Al Ferof was second in the race 12 months ago
Paul Nicholls has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Willie Mullins is 1 from 2 with his chasers at the track
Kerry Lee is 2 from 6 with her chasers at the track
Harry Skelton is 2 from 7 riding over fences at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: MENORAH (Bet here at 9/2 with Bet365) has taken this race for the last two years and despite his advancing years is certainly a big player again this time. Now 11 years-old this Philip Hobbs-trained horse loves this time of the year and seems to relish the Sandown track. A last-time out third at Aintree, behind Don Poli was a fair effort considering that horse has gone onto run well this season. Yes, he has a 140 day break to overcome, but he’s gone well fresh in the past and this race would have been a target for him all season – he should take all the beating and can hopefully land the three-timer in this race. Of the rest, the Paul Nicholls camp are well represented with Rocky Creek, Saphir De Rheu and Wonderful Charm so he should be picking up some prize money, while the best of the Mullins runners looks to be Valseur Lido, who gets a handy 5lbs from Menorah and based on his 6 length second to Vautour last time heads here as a big player too.
3.35 – bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4
13/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Aged 9 or younger
11/13 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
10/13 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/13 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
8/13 – Rated 160 or higher
6/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
4/13 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/13 – Irish bred
3/13 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Winning favourite
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Special Tiara won the race in 2015
Sire De Grugy won the race in 2013 & 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: With another £71k on offer to the winner here, but prize money on offer for all finishers then Paul Nicholls might hold the key here despite not having the first two in the betting. He’s got three in the race – Dodging Bullets, Solar Impulse and Ulck Du Lin – all three are unlikely winners based on recent form, but barring falls they should all bring home some sort of a prize to add to the Nicholls haul. That would ease the blow should the Willie Mullins-trained Un De Sceaux take the first prize. However, his talented 8 year-old was firmly put in his place by SPRINTER SACRE (Bet here at 6/5 with Betfair Sportsbook) in the Champion Chase at the Festival last month and that might be the case again. Nicky Henderson’s 10 year-old is also a past course and distance winner here at the track – and that is a big plus here at the Esher track. The tricky Railway Fences are a unique set of obstacles down the back straight, while the stiff uphill finish can often catch horses out too. The way Sprinter Sacre eased past Un De Sceaux at Cheltenham last time suggests he’s the one to beat. For champion, Sire De Grugy, makes up the field, but he’s been out of form of late and you feel it might be last chance saloon time for him here.
4.10 – bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y CH4
13/13 – Had raced in the last 56 days
12/13 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
10/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/13 – Had won over 3m or further before
9/13 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Aged 9 or younger
8/13 – Had raced in the last 25 days
8/13 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
8/13 – Officially rated 140 or higher
7/13 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/13 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/13 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/13 – Trained by Ferdy Murphy
2/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/13 – Won last time out
0/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 13.3/1
Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts
The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
20 of the last 25 winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 5 of the last 12 runnings
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: A shocking race for the favourite with the last market leader to land the prize being Beau in 2000. At this stage the Paul Nicholls-trained Southfield Theatre heads the betting so has that negative stat to overcome. A win here for this horse will give the Nicholls camp a big lift as they eye up another trainers’ title and being a past course winner he’s every chance. However, since his RSA Chase second last season he’s hardly set the world alight and heads here after being brought down last time out at the Cheltenham Festival. That said, he was looking as if he was coming into the race that day, and after running against the likes of Coneygree and Don Poli this season will find this a lot easier – but at the price he’s no value, with punters latching onto the Nicholls-factor. Nicholls also runs Just A Par, who is a past CD winner here and has a lively chance too – especially with young Harry Cobden claiming 5lbs. Willie Mullins has two runners – Sir Des Champs and Measureofmydreams – both are respected, but the betting suggests Measureofmydreams is the better of the two. He gets in here with a lightweight, but also needs to bounce-back from a fall last time out at Ayr in the Scottish National. It was an early fall but he was clearly fancied that day as he went off favourite and would have a big chance based on his third the time before in the National Hunt Chase at the Festival.
However, there could be another stable that spoils the party for both Nicholls and Mullins here as the Neil Mulholland team look to have a very strong hand too. They run The Druids Nephew, who was last seen being pulled up in the Aintree Grand National, while the also have THE YOUNG MASTER (e/w) (Bet here at 8/1 with Ladbrokes). This 7 year-old should have a lot more to come and his recent third of 23 at the Festival was a sign that he’s returning to form. He gets in here off a pound lower and with Sam Waley-Cohen taking off a further 3lbs then he’ll have just 10-12 to carry. He’s won 3 of this 9 chase starts, plus been placed in two more. Conditions should be ideal as he seems to act on most ground types and looks to have slipped to a very handy mark indeed based on past efforts.
4.45 – bet365 Select Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f110y
Only 2 previous runnings
Nicky Henderson has a 29% (+£48) record with his hurdlers at the track
Philip Hobbs has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Gary Moore has a +£43 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the track
Willie Mullins is 2 from 6 with his hurdlers at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Ubak was a good winner at Aintree a few weeks ago and is respected, but needs to prove himself on this slightly faster ground. Vaniteux unseated last time out at the Festival in the Arkle, but is a course winner here and would certainly have a big say if none-the-worse for that fall. The Nicholls team have three – Silsol, San Benedeto and Ptit Zig, with Silsol possibly their better chance on these terms – he’s their highest-rated of the trio – they won the race in 2014. But, this could be one for the Mullins yard with VROUM VROUM MAG (Bet here at 5/6 with 888Sport.com). This talented mare took the Mares’ Hurdle last time out in decent fashion at the Festival and despite not just running against her own sex here looks the one to beat. She stays further so this track and the uphill finish look sure to suit, and can provide Mullins with an extra £28k towards his trainers’ title total.
5.20 – bet365 Josh Gifford Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f10y
Only 2 previous runnings
Gary Moore has a 35% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Willie Mullins is 1 from 2 with his chasers at the track
Kerry Lee is 2 from 6 with her chasers at the track
Jamie Moore has a 36% record riding over fences at the track
Daryl Jacob has a 39% record riding over fences at the track
Nico de Boinville has a 30% record riding over fences at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Another race the Nicholls team are mob-handed in – they run CALIPTO (Bet here at 9/2 with Betfair Sportsbook), Some Buckle and As De Mee. All three are respected but jockey bookings suggest the first-named is the one to focus on with Sam Twiston-Davies riding. This 6 year-old was a beaten favourite last time out at Exeter, but was only 10 lengths behind the classy Tea For Two there and the time before just 3 lengths adrift of Garde La Victoire at Cheltenham. He’s has over 4 months off so heads here fresher than most and that might be the difference – has gone well first time out in the past.
5.55 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f
12/12 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
10/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/12 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
8/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/12 – Unplaced last time out
7/12 – Carried 10-13 or less
6/12 – Had won over 2m4f (or further) before
5/12 – French bred
5/12 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/12 – Had run at Sandown before
3/12 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/12 – Winning favourites (1 co)
1/12 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: 20 runners head to post here for the final race, but there are plenty of key trends to take into account. Having raced in the last 6 weeks and being aged 7 or younger are key ones to note, while it’s been a fair race for the favourites getting placed – 10 of the last 12. The Pipe yard won the race in 2008 and 2010 so their Dell ‘ Arca will be hoping to add to that tally, while the Nicholls camp took the pot in 2007 – they run several, Arcala, Red Hanrahan and Qualando, with all three heading into the race off the back of good recent runs. One horse that does catch the eye though is ROYAL VACATION (Bet here at 20/1 with Betway). This Colin Tizzard-trained 6 year-old heads here on a three-timer after wins at Taunton and Plumpton and despite this being another step up looks a horse on the up. He should relish the stiff finish having won over further and Paddy Brennan is a further plus in the saddle.
HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (C4/RUK
2.10 – ApolloBet Daily Racing Refunds Handicap Cl2 7f CH4
3 previous runnings
3/3 – Aged 5 or younger
2/3 – Aged 5 years-old
0/3 – Winning favourites
Richard Hannon won the race 12 months ago
William Haggas has a 25% record with his older horses at the track
Marco Botti is just 5 from 59 with his older horses at the track
Kevin Ryan has a +£125 level stakes profit with his older horses at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Michael Dods camp are just 4 from 55 with their older runners at the track so their Glen Moss has that trend to overcome, but on a plus is a past CD winner at the track. The only other CD winner is Above The Rest, who makes his seasonal reappearance, but is 4lbs higher than his last winning mark. Only three previous runnings, but it might be significant that all three winners were aged 5 or younger. Shared Equity is one of the 5 year-olds that stands out and should be a lot fitter for a recent run at Doncaster, when only beaten 3 ½ lengths. However, the call here is the William Haggas-trained PREDOMINANCE (Bet here at 6/1 with Coral). This 4 year-old was a beaten favourite last time out at Doncaster, but that was over a mile and that didn’t look to suit. This drop back to 7f is a big plus and that run would also have brought him on after a 5 month break. Add in that the yard boast an impressive 25% record with their runners at the track then everything points to a big run.
3.20 – ApolloBet Bet Through Your Mobile Handicap Cl2 1m CH4
Just 2 previous runnings
Wilde Inspiration won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Karl Burke won the race in 2014
Both winners carried 8-10 or less
Ed McMahon has a 21% record with his older horses at the track
David Baron is just 2 from 37 with his older horses at the course
Richard Fahey is just 3 from 116 with his older horses at the track
Franny Norton has a 22% record riding older horses at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Only two previous runnings so not a great deal to go on. Trainer Karl Burke took the race in 2014 so his previous CD winner, Yourartisonfire, is respected, despite making his seasonal reappearance here. Sinfonietta was a good winner last time out and Nottingham but is up a big-looking 13lbs for that so needs another big step forward. Sir Michael Stoute’s Mustaaqeem is an interesting runner and gets weight all-round, while the Harry Dunlop team had a few winners in midweek so their Storm Rock, who was last seen in the Lincoln, should be better for the run. But the interesting one here could be WILDE INSPIRATION (e/w) (Bet here at 10/1 with Bet365), who took this race 12 months ago. This Julie Camacho-trained horse should be better for a recent run at Doncaster – that was his first for 6 months – and is only 3lbs higher than when he took this last season ago.
RIPON HORSE RACING TRENDS (C4/ATR)
2.40 – Download The Free attheraces App Handicap Cl2 2m CH4
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
10/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/12 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
8/12 – Had won at least 3 times before (flat)
8/12 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
7/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Placed last time out
6/12 – Had won over 2m (flat) before
6/12 – Had raced at Ripon before (3 won)
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/12 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/12 – Aged 4 years-old
4/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 5/1
RACING TRADERS VERDICT: The Richard Fahey yard took this in 2006 and 2014 so their two entries – Gabrial’s Star and Gabrial’s King – will be hoping to add to that tally. Both make their seasonal reappearances but this yard often have them fit enough to go well first time out. 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old so that’s an interesting stat to take into account. That brings the Mark Johnston-trained YORKIDDING (e/w) (Bet here at 10/1 with Betfred) into the frame. This yard took the prize in 2012 and is sure to benefit from the step back up to 2m. He also went well first-time out last season, when second in soft ground at Nottingham so the fact she’s not been on the track since October isn’t a big issue. Of the rest, Stonecutter is another 5 year-old that catches the eye after a good win at Wolverhampton last time out on the AW. This grey gets in here off just 2lbs higher and despite this being a step up in grade commands respect. Mirsaale is another to note after a very easy win at Catterick last time, but is up a huge 16lbs here and that was only a Class 5 race. Gavlar is the only previous distance winner in the field, while Saved By The Bell is the only previous course winner.
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Thatsbettingtips Staff
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