Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips – 26th March 2016
The C4 cameras head to Kempton Park this weekend, with the Magnolia and Rosebery Stakes their feature contests, while they are also at Haydock Park for the four more races – plus it's the Dubai World Cup this Satuday – the world's richest race!
As always we’ve got all the key trends and stats – plus free horse racing tips for the LIVE C4 races to help you narrow down the runners – we hope they help!
Plus – Be sure to claim your free bookmaker bets below, plus look out for further bookmaker specials on the LIVE C4 action (listed below) too.
CLAIM UPTO £500 IN FREE BOOKIE BETS! (Ts&C's apply)
KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)
2.15 – Racing UK In Glorious HD Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f CH4
10/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Drawn in stall 1-4
8/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/10 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Unplaced last time out
7/10 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
4/10 – Unplaced favourites
4/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Had won at Kempton before
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
3/10 – Trained by John Gosden
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 7/2
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Richard Hannon-trained Winshear comes into this race as the one to beat – being the joint top-rated horse, plus getting 3lbs. This 5 year-old was running in Group company last season so the drop in class is a plus and he won first-time out last season, so clearly goes well after a break. Those against him will note that this will be his first ever AW run so a lot has to be taken on trust with regards to the surface, while with all his recent runs coming over further this drop back to 1m2f is also not certain to suit. The William Muir yard run their lightly-raced Restorer, who was last seen winning at Newmarket back in October, but we’d be a tiny bit worried that both his career wins have been in soft conditions So the call, for us, here is the William Haggas-trained OUR CHANNEL (Bet here at 11/4 with Bet365). This 5 year-old the second highest-rated horse in the line-up, but, more importantly, comes here fit from a spell racing on the AW over the winter. He’s the only course and distance winner in the race and, despite needing a step-up from handicap company to Listed class, connections clearly feel he’s up to the task and they also took the pot in 2010 and 2011 so know what’s required!
2.50 – racinguk.com Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 1m3f CH4
13/13 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
11/13 – Had won between 2-4 times before
10/13 – Rated between 89 and 99
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
8/13 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – Aged 4 years-old
4/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
2/13 – Trained by Mark Johnston
1/13 – Winning favourites
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Plenty of key stats to note here, with 4 and 5 year-olds having the best recent records, while look for horses that are officially rated between 89-99 and that have won between 2-4 times in the past. Based on those trends the French recruit, Cayrli, could be interesting, but with the Mark Johnston stable having a decent record in this race (won it in 2007 and 2014) then their MASTER OF FINANCE (e/w) (Bet here at 9/1 with William Hill) is the pick. This 5 year-old is having his first run back since September 15, but the horse won first time out last season and should have benefitted from having a break. The yard are masters at getting their horses fit and ready to go during this time of the season and jockey Joe Fanning, is a further big plus in the saddle.
3.25 -Racing UK Day Pass Just £10 Handicap Cl2 6f CH4
Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/4 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
4/4 – Carried between 8-10 and 9-5
3/4 – Rated between 87-91
3/4 – Horses from stall 6 placed
3/4 – Ran within the last 2 months
2/4 – Winners from stall 6
1/4 – Winning favourites
Trainer Paul D’Arcy is just 3 from 34 with his older horses here
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 4/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: 2 of the last 4 winners have come from stall 6 and with the form horse in the race – SPRING LOADED (Bet here at 15/8 with Ladbrokes) – getting that draw then everything points to a big run. Paul D’Arcy’s 4 year-old has won its last three and despite needing another step forward here is the clear form horse in the race. Yes, this grey only won by a head last time out but he’s only 2lbs higher here and you got the impression that he won with a bit to spare last time out under just hands and heels. The yard don’t have the best of records at the track so those against him will cling to that, but this horse is a past course and distance winner so knows his way around here and is clearly in the form of it’s life at present. Of the rest, the Jim Boyle team have a decent +£23 level stakes profit with their runners at the track so their Searchlight, who is a past CD winner, is another to note.
HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)
2.00 – Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 2m3f203y CH4
No previous runnings
Trainer Brian Ellison has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ian Williams has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sue Smith has a +£41 level stakes profit with his chasers at the track
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just 3 from 48 with his chasers at the track
Jockey Daryl Jacob is 6 from 17 (35%) riding chasers at the track
Jockey James Reveley is 0 from 21 riding over fences at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Not a lot to go on with the trends but the Nigel Twiston-davies horses are going well at the moment and jockey Daryl Jacob often does well here at the track – with that in mind the team-up with BALLYBOLLEY (Bet here at 7/1 with Bet365) here. The horse has been running well in defeat of late – finishing third in his last three and in-and-around the same mark looks set to run another solid race.
2.35 – ApolloBet Cash Back If 2nd Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 2m6f177y CH4
No previous runnings
Trainer Donald McCain has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Evan Williams has a +£41 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Sue Smith is just 3 from 47 with her hurdlers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes is only 4 from 51 riding over hurdles at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Again no past runnings but the Nicky Richards-trained SIR VINSKI (e/w) (Bet here at 12/1 with Coral) caught the eye last time out at Wetherby when winning by 8 lengths. Yes, a 12b rise in the ratings will make life harder but the first-time blinkers seemed to do the trick that day and if having the same impact here looks a big player. That win came in heavy ground, but he’s won on better conditions in the past too so there should be no ground issues either.
3.10 – Challenger Staying Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m24y CH4
No previous runnings
Trainer Donald McCain has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Brian Ellison has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ian Williams has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just 3 from 48 with his chasers at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Dan Skelton’s THINGER LICHT (e/w) (Bet here at 10/1 with Ladbrokes) is sure to be popular after a string of good efforts, and might just be worth sticking with despite coming second last time out. TH yard are going well at the moment so looks a solid e/w bet in a tough race.
3.45 – Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 1m7f144y CH4
No previous runnings
Trainer Donald McCain has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Tom George has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer John Quinn has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Sue Smith is just 3 from 47 with her hurdlers at the track
Jockey Daryl Jacob has a 20% record riding hurdlers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes is only 4 from 51 riding over hurdles at the track
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Teo Vivo could be interesting based on it’s recent win at Musselburgh but a 5lb rise makes life harder, plus jockey Brian Hughes doesn’t have the best of records here – just 4 winners from his last 51 rides. Therefore, it might be worth taking a chance on the Tom George-trained BABY KING (e/w) Bet here at 14/1 with Betfred). This 7 year-old has run two solid races here at Haydock, including winning at the track back in November. He’s 5lbs higher than that victory but the slightly quicker ground might suit him better, as well as this more galloping track – Paddy Brennan continues in the saddle.
Dubai World Cup Horse Racing Trends
5.00 – Meydan: Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (Group 1) (Dirt) 1m2f
Dubai World Cup Trends (Since run at Meydan 2010)
6/6 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
6/6 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
5/6 – Didn’t win their last race
5/6 – Officially rated between 119-123
5/6 – Aged 5 or older
5/6 – Unplaced favourite
5/6 – Returned a double-figure price
5/6 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
5/6 – Had won over 1m2f before
4/6 – Came from stalls 5-8 (inclusive)
4/6 – Previous Group 1 winners
4/6 – Had won at the track before
4/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
0/6 – Winning favourite
The average SP in the last 6 runnings is 13/1
Trained Dubai World Cup Winners………..
9/20 – Trained in USA
8/20 – Trained in UAE
1/20 – Trained in GB
1/20 – Trained in Japan
1/20 – Trained in France
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: With over £4million on offer to the winner of the world’s richest race then it’s no wonder we’ve some of the best horses and stables on show here. Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking for the US-trained Keen Ice, but that horse does have a bit to find based on his recent run at the course when beaten 12 lengths earlier this month. That said, he’ll have arguably the best pilot in the race doing the steering and if finding some old form is not the worst each-way shout. However, the race looks to be between the Godolphin-owned Frosted and the latest American wonder-horse CALIFORNIA CHROME (Bet here at 2/1 with Skybet). Frosted will be ridden by William Buick, who won this race 12 months ago, and the horse was a nice winner at the track last time out. But that was in Group Two company and at 10/11 was entitled to take that pot. This will be a lot harder – yes, he’s a previous Group One winner and we know he acts on the surface, but California Chrome is the pick after his easy win at the track last time out, despite not being handed the best of draws. Yes, at 1/3 it would have been a shock if he didn’t land his last race, but he was an excellent second in this contest 12 months ago and seems a better horse this time around. With just two runs since his run in the race last year will head here fresher than most and, to us, looks the one to beat. If he does win he’ll double his, already amassed, £4million in total prize money won in one hit!
——————————————————————————————————–
Best Bookmaker Offers (Ts&C's apply)
PADDY POWER: Money back (up to £25) if you horse is 2nd (selected races) to the SP fav.
LADBROKES: If your horse comes second in any of the LIVE C4 races they will give you your money back (mobile, app, racing post app) (up to (£25)
WILLIAM HILL: If your horse comes second in any of the LIVE C4 races they will give you your money back (mobile, app, racing post app) (up to (£25)
BET365: Back any winner at 4/1 or bigger on any of the LIVE C4 races and they will give you a FREE BET to the same stake on the next live C4 race (up to £50)
BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK: Back any winner at 3/1 or bigger on any LIVE C4 race and they will give you a FREE BET to the same stake (up to £25)
888SPORT.com – Money-back if you are beaten by a no-hoper (20/1 or bigger) Upto £25 on all UK flat and NH races.
CORAL: Money back if your horse falls (selected meetings) up to £/€25 per race.
(Ts&C’s apply to all offers)
Thatsbettingtips Staff
Latest posts by Thatsbettingtips Staff (see all)
- Cheltenham Festival 2017 NRNB and Best Odds Guaranteed at bet365 - January 18, 2017
- 2016 Chester Cup Free Tips and Betting Trends - May 2, 2016
- Weekend’s FREE Horse Racing Tips: Sat 30th April – Sun 1st May - April 29, 2016
- 2016 Punchestown Festival Betting Tips & Trends - April 27, 2016
