Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 28th November
Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 28th November – More good winners last weekend – Another huge Saturday ahead with the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Fighting Fifth Hurdle the feature races at Newbury and Newcastle – As always we’ve got all the C4 TV trends and our free horse racing tips.
Horse racing betting expert, Andy Newton, gives you his free horse racing tips and stats this Saturday 28th Nov 2015 across the LIVE C4 races from Newbury & Newcastle racecouses.
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Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (C4/RUK)
1.15 – Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase Cl3 2m6f93y CH4
10/10 – Aged 9 or younger
9/10 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) before
8/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
8/10 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Raced at Wincanton (3), Cheltenham (3) or Bangor (2) last time out
7/10 – Aged 7 or older
7/10 – Officially rated between 126-130
7/10 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Unplaced last time out
4/10 – Had raced at Newbury over fences before
3/10 – French bred
2/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so his CEASAR MILAN (Bet here at 16/1 with Skybet) is respected despite a few lack-lustre runs of late, while if recent trends are to be repeated then we can ignore horses aged 10 or older. Warren Greatrex’s Aloomomo has improved with each run this season, but this is another big test for this young horse (only 5 years-old). 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11-5 or more so that’s another plus for Ceasar Milan, plus the Tom George-trained O MAONLAI (Bet here at 16/1 with Paddy Power) is another that catches the eye having won here at the course before.
1.50 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f CH4
Three previous runnings
All three winners aged 5 years-old
No winning favourites
All 3 winners carried between 10-10 and 11-5
Paul Nicholls, Alan King & Rebecca Curtis have trained the winners
Nicky Henderson has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track
Harry Fry has a 33% record with his hurdlers here
Venetia Williams is just 1 from 27 with his hurdlers at the track
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Not much to go on here with just three previous runs. The Nicky Henderson yard has good track records here so their runners Laurium & Ma Filleule are feared, but another yard that does well here is Harry Fry – he runs SIR IVAN (Bet here at 6/1 with Paddy Power). This horse was a good third last time out Wetherby on his return and with that run expected to have brought him on then he looks a big player here – especially in the first-time blinkers too.
2.25 – bet365 Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y CH4
11/13 – Grade One winner over hurdles
10/13 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Favourites placed
10/13 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/13 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
9/13 – Priced 15/8 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Favourites
9/13 – Won a hurdles race at Newbury
8/13 – Raced at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
8/13 – French bred
7/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Returned odds-on in the betting
6/13 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
6/13 – Won by a previous winner of the race
5/13 – Won by Paul Nicholls (inc 5 of last 6 renewals)
3/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Only five runners here, but still plenty to look forward to with last season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle winner – Cole Harden – entered. However, the third that day – WHISPER (Bet here at 7/1 with Bet365) – won’t be a pushover for Nicky Henderson. He gained revenge over Cole Harden at Aintree last April and should be fine on the ground – having won in a heavy surface here at Newbury in the past.
3.00 – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m2f110y
12/13 – Aged 8 or younger
11/13 – Won a chase race over at least 3m before
11/13 – Won between 2-5 previous races over fences
10/13 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
10/13 – Raced at Newbury before (6 had won over fences there)
10/13 – Won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
10/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/13 – Placed in the first 3 last time out
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
9/13 – Rated between 140 and 151
8/13 – Raced at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
7/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Favourites Unplaced
7/13 – Had a previous run that season
4/13 – Favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 3)
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 3)
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 10/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (25 runnings) there have been 13 winners (52%) aged 7 years-old
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: A cracking renewal in prospect and all eyes will be on Paul Nicholls’ top-weight Saphir Du Rheu. He’s won 3 of this 5 chase starts and was impressive last time out again when winning at Carlisle. At just 6 years-old there should be more to come but he does have to give weight away all-round and that won’t be easy in this ground. The 2012 winner, Bobs Worth, is another to note after bouncing back to form with a win over hurdles last time out and is 7lbs better off than when winning this 3 years ago. Smad Place will be popular after returning with a win at Kempton over a trip a bit on the short side and his RSA second last season was a solid effort. However, the one we like here is THE YOUNG MASTER (e/w) (Bet here at 11/1 with William Hill). The horse was second to Saphir Du Rheu last time out, but gets a hefty weight pull now for that 7 length defeat, plus Sam Waley-Cohen takes off another 3lbs from the saddle. Soft or heavy ground will be fine and at 6 years-old there should be more to come from this improving chaser.
3.35 – bet365 Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f CH4
12/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Officially rated between 126-135
10/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
9/13 – French bred
8/13 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/13 – Won a UK chase race over 2m1f
8/13 – Placed last time out
8/13 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
7/13 – Won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
6/13 – Favourites unplaced
5/13 – Favourites
4/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Plenty of these have a bit to prove based on recent runs, but between them the Nicholls, Venetia Williams and Henderson yards have won this contest 8 times in the last 13 runnings. Williams runs Gardefort, who has gone well fresh in the past so his 322 day absence might not be a problem. The same applies to Paul Nicholls’ Stellar Notion, but Henderson’s LOUGH KENT (Bet here at 5/1 with Coral) was in the process of running a big race last time out at Cheltenham until blundering in the closing stages and would surely have finished a lot closer that seventh. The horse has won on very soft ground in France so providing he can brush-up his jumping is the call here.
Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (C4/ATR)
2.05 – StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4
13/13 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m
12/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their latest race
12/13 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
11/13 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
11/13 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles
10/13 – Favourites placed
9/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Officially rated 151 or higher
8/13 – Finished in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/13 – Won by an Irish bred
3/13 – Won by an Irish based yard
2/13 – Ran over hurdles at Newcastle before
1/13 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi)
Irving won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 11/2
Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Irving was a good winner last weekend when beating Top Notch at Haydock and he won this race 12 months ago too. He’ll be popular to follow-up, but the fact the Willie Mullins yard supplemented WICKLOW BRAVE (Bet here at 2/1 with William Hill) for this race earlier in the week is a bit hint they feel they can take this. Irish-trained runners have a fair record in the race, while this horse’s recent third behind stablemates Nichols Canyon and the current Champion hurdler Faugheen make him the one to beat on that form. Ruby Walsh makes the trip over to ride, which is a further plus.
2.40 – At The Races Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m CH4
11/11 – Failed to win their last race
10/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Won a UK chase race over at least 3m
9/11 – Irish bred
9/11 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/11 – Won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
8/11 – Unplaced in their last race
6/11 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
5/11 – Favourites unplaced
4/11 – Aged 8 years-old
4/11 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/11 – Favourites (1 joint)
3/11 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/11– Ridden by Andrew Thornton
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 7.7/1
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: 9 of the last 11 winners carried 10-12 or more here, so take that into account, while 10 of the last 11 raced in the last 6 weeks. Trainer Colin Tizzard has won the race three times in the last four years so the call here is to side with his MASTERS HILL (Bet here at 13/2 with Ladbrokes). The horse was a fine second last time out on his return run at Carlisle and ticks a lot of the key trends to give the yard anther famous win in this valuable race – conditions will suit. Of the rest The Last Samui and Wakanda look solid dangers, while the Paul Nicholls yard have also got a decent record in this race so his Virak is another to note.
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Thatsbettingtips Staff
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