Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 2nd April -
Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 2nd April -

Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 2nd April Another busy day this Saturday with nine LIVE C4 races at Doncaster, Newbury and Kempton Park – including the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap at 2.45 from Doncaster. We've got all the main LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus all our free horse racing tips on the whole Doncaster card.

We hope the trends help narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few nice weekend winners !

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DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS, Sat 2nd April
 

2.15 – Betway Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

12/14 – Carried 8-13 or more
11/14 – Aged 4 years-old
11/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/14 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
10/14 – Won over a mile before
8/14 – Won from a double-figure draw
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Won last time out
1/14 – Won a race at Doncaster before
0/14 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 15/1
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 14 years
Trainer William Haggas has a 33% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 4 from 125 with his older horses at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 22% record riding older horses at the track

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Richard Fahey team took this race in 2010 and 2014, so they will be hoping to follow-up with Right Touch here. The horse was a real improver last season, winning his last two, but is up another 4lbs here and those wins came over 6f and 7f so a bit more to prove over this 1m trip. Connections also take off a handy 7lbs with Adam McNamara’s claim so that helps and if staying this longer trip (yet to race over it) would be one for the shortlist. In terms of weight the key trends suggest looking for horses carrying 8-13 or more in weight, while 4 year-olds have by far the best record. The Jeremy Noseda-trained Keystoke fits that age trend and being a lightly raced sort (this only his fifth career race) then there should be more to come. He’s won 3 of it’s 4 starts, including when beating a horse on the up (Supersta) last time out, while he’s also the only past course and distance winner in the field. The Marco Botti-trained Azraff is another 4 year-old of interest and will have the services of Ryan Moore so looks another big player. However, the call here is PREDOMINANCE (Bet here at 4/1 with Skybet). This William Haggas-trained 4 year-old was a good fourth of 21 here in heavy ground last November over 7f, and before that was a decent second over a mile at Newbury. He’s had another winter on his back, while the yard boasts a decent 33% strike-rate with their older horses at the track.

 

2.45 – Betway Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/13 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/13 – Had won between 2-4 times before
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/13 – Having their first run of the flat season
9/13 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
7/13 – Officially rated between 95-98
7/13 – Placed first or second last time out
7/13 – Had raced at Doncaster before
6/13 – Aged 4 years-old
6/13 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/13 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13  – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by John Quinn
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/13 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT:With all of the last 13 winners aged 6 or younger then there are a few of the older horses like Farlow (8), Stipulate (7), Sirius Prospect (8), Ocean Tempest (7), Fire Ship (7) and Ingleby Angel (7) that we are overlooking. 12 of the last 13 winners carried 9-4 or less in weight, so that just leaves the six, but three of those are aged 7 years-old, so we can rule those out too. The four we are left with are Man Of Harlech, Storm Rock, Secret Brief and Beach Bar. They are all priced in double figures so there is nothing to say you can’t play them all – you’d still show a nice profit. 9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 9 or higher, so if you think that trend will be repeated then Man Of Harlech (stall 3) might be ruled out too. Beach Bar has been running well over in Dubai in some competitive handicaps so as long as he’s travelled back ok will be a lot fitter than most, while in stall 9 will have options. Secret Brief is a big price considering he hails from the Godolphin yard and that William Buick rides. He’s another that’s been running at Meydan with credit and in stall 22 will be able to grab the rail early on. However, the call here is STORM ROCK (e/w) (Bet here at 14/1 with Betway). This Harry Dunlop-trained 4 year-old has finished in the top 3 in six of his 8 starts, and despite flopping on the AW last time out is clearly worth another chance back on turf. Drawn in stall 13 means he’s another with options and jockey, David Probert, is a further plus in the saddle. Of the rest, the betting suggests Lord Of The Land, Brave Zolo and Udododontu are others to consider.

 

3.20 – Betway Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f More4

12/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
11/12 – Had won no more than 5 times before
10/12 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
10/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/12 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
8/12 – Had won over 6f before
8/12 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
8/12 – Rated 102+
7/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Winning favourites
1/12 – Had won at Doncaster before
Jack Dexter won the race in 2013
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Trainer Paul Midgley is just 1 from 65 with his older horses at the track
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Redcar

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Alben Star was a good winner last time out at Lingfield on their Good Friday Meeting, but a 6lb rise and the return to turf mean conditions will be a lot different here. Jack Dexter took the race in 2013 so is another to consider and will have Ryan Moore doing the steering. He’s not getting any younger at 7 years-old, but still looks well handicapped on old form and has also gone well fresh in the past. However, 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 4-6 years-old and 10 of the last 12 carried 10-12 or more in weight. With those two big stats in mind, Mobsta, Shared Equity and Gamesome are interesting, but the standout one on these terms is SUEDOIS (Bet here at 5/1 with Coral). This David O’Meara-trained 5 year-old was last seen running 8th in the Group One Prix de la Foret at Longchamp and was only beaten 5 ½ lengths that day. Therefore, back into Listed grade gives him a huge chance of going in despite a 181 day absence.


3.55 – Betway Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m More4

Just 3 previous running
3/3 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
3/3 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
1/3 – Winning favourites
Trainer David O’Meara won the race in 2012
Trainer Roger Varian has a 24% record with his older horses here
Trainer Mick Channon is just 3 from 32 with his older horses here
Jockey Phillip Makin is just 3 from 48 riding older horses here

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The David O’Meara yard too this in 2012 so their Custom Cut will be trying to follow-up. He’s the joint top-rated in the line-up on 117, but has to give 7lbs to the other highest-rated runner – BELARDO (Bet here at SP with William Hill). With that in mind this Godolphin-owned 4 year-old is the call. He was last seen running the classy Solow to ¾ lengths in the QEII Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day and with a that being a Group One then should find this Listed grade a lot more to his liking – should be hard to beat. Of the rest, the John Gosden-trained Muwaary could be the forgotten horse in the race after 628 days off, but, therefore, might just need the outing to blow away the cobwebs.

 

4.30 – Betway Brocklesby Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl4 5f More4

8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Foaled in Feb or March
8/10 – Won this on their debut runs
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Horses from stall 2 that finished 1st or 2nd
5/10 – Ridden by a claimer
4/10 – Trained by Bill Turner (2006, 2008, 2011 & 2013)
4/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winners from stall 2
2/10 – Winners from stall 10
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/10 – Winning favourites (co & joint)
0/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Jockey Frankie Dettori has a 25% record riding 2 year-olds here
Jockey Graham Lee is just 1 from 40 riding 2 year-olds here

Note: 2006 running was staged at Redcar, 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Not a lot to go on here for this early season 2 year-old race. The contest has been given a bit of added spice this year with the US-trained Create A Dream (USA) coming over from the Wesley Ward team – Frankie Dettori rides, and is sure to be popular. These US sprinters can often blast out of the stalls and be hard to catch so is certainly worth noting in the market. The other trends to note ahead of this race are that jockey Graham Lee is just 1 from 40 riding 2 year-olds here so his mount Paisley Abbey is overlooked. While the Bill Turner team love to win the race – they’ve won it in 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2013. Taking that into account their unraced CRUCIAL MOMENT (Bet here at SP with 5/1 with Skybet) should go well, especially with jockey Ryan While claiming 5lbs – he rode the winner for the yard in 2013.

 

Best Of The Rest from Doncaster……………….

5.05 – A tricky race to unravel, with a lot of these either lightly-raced or making their debuts, so the market will be a good guide. Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking for the Ed Dunlop-trained Amazing Red, who holds a Derby entry – while Frankie Dettori and John Gosden team-up with Fastnet Blast – that yard boast a decent 24% record at the track with their 3 year-olds. Roger Varian also has a good record with his age of horse at the course – he runs High Command  (Dante and Derby entered).  We can expect the Richard Hannon horses to be well-forward at this time of year, so their Hermann and Lexington Law are worth noting, but it could be worth chancing MAHFFOOZ (Bet here at SP with Betway). The Charles Hills team took this race 12 months ago and with Paul Hanagan riding will have every assistance from the saddle.

5.40 – Trainer Tony Carroll has won this race twice in past (2012 & 2013) so his Time Square is respected. This 9 year-old will be fitter than most after a spell on the AW and today’s jockey, Mitch Godwin, knows the horse well having ridden him in his last three races. Another yard that are no strangers to taking this is the Brian Ellison team – they took the prize in 2014 and run Teenage Dream this time. But really there are some dire trainer track stats in this race with only one handler operating higher than 10% with their horses here. Andrew Balding (16%) is the yard in question so the safe call, in what’s not a very inspiring betting race, could be to side with his top-weight HIT LIST (Bet here at 11/4 with Skybet). The horse will have the talented Edward Greatrex riding and despite not running since last October is lightly-raced and heads here off the back of a win at Salisbury – there could be more to come.

6.10 – We end with division two of this 1m2f apprentice-ridden race. I Am Not Here is the only last-time out winner in the field, but that came 282 days ago so his fitness has to be taken on trust. We mentioned the good record of the Tony Carroll team in this race so their Rising Breeze is another to note. Paddy Pilley is a fair pilot, while the horse will head here fit from four AW runs already this year. The top-weight I’m Harry will be popular after a couple of seconds, but the George Baker team are just 1 from 35 with their runners here so that’s not an inspiring stat to back up his chance, while those recent runs came on the AW.  At the time of writing the David Baron yard have sent out 3 winners from their last 7, so with that in mind it’s clear their horses are in fine fettle at the moment so their CHILWORTH BELLS (e/w) (Bet here at SP with William Hill) could be the answer. Yes, he’s not been out since last June, but has gone well fresh in the past and doesn’t look too badly treated off this mark.

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NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS, Sat 2nd April


3.05 – Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f CH4

Two previous runnings
Both winners returned between 7/1 & 8/1
No winning favourite
Both winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
Venetia Williams won the race in 2014
Trainer Robin Dickin has a 67% record with his chasers at the track
Philip Hobbs and Oliver Sherwood all have a 21% record with their chasers at the track
Kerry Lee is 2 from 6 (33%) with her chasers at the track
Philip Hobbs has a +£43 level stakes profit with his chasers at the track
 

3.40 – EBF Stallions & TBA Mares´ "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f CH4

11/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
8/11 –  Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Had won over 2m 1/2f (hurdles) before
8/11 – Aged 6 years-old
7/11 – Returned 15/2 or sorter in the betting
6/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Unplaced favourites
4/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/11 – Ran at Huntingdon last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.3/1
Trainer Harry Fry has a 38% record with his hurdlers at the track


KEMPTON PARK HORSE RACING TRENDS, Sat 2nd April
 

2.30 – Betfred "Goals Galore Extra" Handicap Cl2 7f CH4

3 previous runnings
All 3 winners aged 4 years-old
All 3 winners carried 9-3 or less
All 3 winners returned between 4/1 and 6/1 (inc)
No winning favourites
Karl Burke’s Georgian Bay won the race in 2014
Marco Botti’s Grey Mirage won the race in 2013
Ralph Beckett & Philip McBride have 21% records with their older horses here
Clive Cox is just 5 from 70 with his older horses here
Jockey John Fahey is just 5 from 97 riding older horses here
 

4.10 – Betfred Mobile Lotto Snowdrop Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m CH4

11/12 – Had won between 2-4 times before
10/12 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/12 – Won by a 4 year-old
10/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
10/12 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Last raced 4 ½ months or more ago
9/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
9/12 – Rated between 90-102
8/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Unplaced in their last race
6/12 – Rated 96 or lower
6/12 – Placed favourites
5/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Had run at Kempton before
2/12 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/12 – Won last time out
Marco Botti won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4.2/1
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 28% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 21% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 34 with his older horses at the track

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

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