Supreme Novices' Hurdle Expert Betting Tips

Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips – 7th Nov 2015 – As we head into Saturday 7th Nov 2015 there is plenty more horse racing action to enjoy and more free horse racing tips – we are going to focus on the LIVE C4 racing from Doncaster, where it's the last day of the flat turf season, while Aintree & Wincanton race over the jumps – we’ve free horse racing tips and key trends for each of the LIVE races, including the November Handicap and Badger Ales Trophy.

Horse racing betting expert, Andy Newton, gives you his free horse racing tips and stats this Saturday 7th Nov 2015 across the LIVE C4 races from Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree racecouses.


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Doncaster Horse Racing Tips (C4/ATR)

1.50 – Betfred Good Luck Hayley Turner Handicap Cl2 7f CH4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
6/7 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
6/7 – Run at least 6 times before that season
6/7 – Won at least 3 times in their career
5/7 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
5/7 – Won over at least 7f before
5/7 – Officially rated between 88 and 93
5/7 – Raced at Doncaster before
4/7 – Returned a double-figure price
4/7 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/7 – Unplaced last time out
2/7 – Winning mares/fillies
2/7 – Favourites
The average winning price in the last 7 years is 13/1

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: trends to note that help point us towards a few towards the bottom of the card. 6 of the last 7 winners carried 8-13 or less so with that in mind ARNOLD LANE (Bet here at 18/1 with Coral)  and BIG TIME (Bet here at 10/1 with Skybet) are the each-way calls. The first-named won well last time out at Catterick and is only 4lbs higher here, while Big Time is off the same mark than when coming second at Nottingham last week – the soft ground is a big plus too.

2.20 – Betfred Lotto £100K Cash Giveaway Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f CH4

12/13 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
12/13 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Won over 6f before
11/13 – Aged 4 or older
11/13 – Won from stall 12 or lower
10/13 – Rated 99 or higher
9/13 – Won at least 5 times before in their career
7/13 – Won at Doncaster before
6/13 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
4/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Raced at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
2/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Winning mare/filly
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Jack Dexter won the race in 2013
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: been out of form since. On these terms Lighting Moon is a big player dropping into Listed company – he’s been running in top company and should find this easier. However, on recent form the Irish raider – IVEAGH GARDENS (Bet here at 6/1 with William Hill) – looks the one to beat. She was a close second in a Listed race last time at Leopardstown, but the time before that beat the classy Found in a Group Three back in May and we all know what that horse has gone onto do. The softer ground will be ideal and she’s shown enough pace to suggest the drop back to 6f is fine too.

2.55 – Betfred TV EBF Stallions Breeding Winners Gillies Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f60y CH4

12/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/12 – Never raced at Doncaster before
10/12 – Had 3 or more runs that season
10/12 – Won at least twice before
8/12 – Raced at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
7/12 – Won over 1m2f before
7/12 – Unplaced last time out
7/12 – Priced 8/1 or bigger in the betting
7/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
6/12 – Favourites unplaced
5/12 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
2/12 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/12 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/12 – Favourites (1 co)
2/12 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

FREE HORSE RACING TIP:3 and 4 year-olds have the best record in this race which only rules Princess Loulou out being a 5 year-old. We’ve seen just two favourites win in the last 10 years, but 6 of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting. Bella Nouf was a good winner last time out, but the one we like here is LAHAYEB (Bet here at 11/2 with Betfred). Mick Appleby’s 3 year-old seems to be improving still and loves cut in the ground. Yes, she’s up 9lbs for a recent win at Nottingham, but she did that by 3 lengths and looks capable of going well off this new mark.

 3.30 – Betfred November Handicap Cl2 1m4f CH4

11/13 – Raced at least 5 times that season
11/13 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
11/13 – Raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
11/13 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
10/13 – Favourites that were unplaced
10/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/13 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
9/13 – Placed in their last race
9/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/13 – Priced a double-figure price in the betting
4/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
1/13 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11.5/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Argus misses the race due to a bad scope on Friday, but the Ralph Beckett yard might still have the answer here with GREEN LIGHT (Bet here at 10/1 with William Hill). The useful Patrick O’Donnell takes off a handy 5lbs and was only beaten ½ a length off just a pound lower last time. So if we add in the jockey’s claim then he’s 6lbs better off here. The third that day – MISTIROC (Bet here at 14/1 with Coral) – is also closely matched with Green Light as he was just in front of him in that same race too, so off just a pound higher is worth having on your side too. We’ll play then both each-way against the field in this competitive end-of-season handicap.

Wincanton Horse Racing Tips (C4/RUK)

1.30 – Bathwick Tyres Rising Stars Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y

10/11 – Favourites placed
10/11 – Won no more than once over fences before
9/11 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Favourites
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/11 – French bred
6/11 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
5/11 – Aged 5 years-old
5/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/11 – Won by the Pipe stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: hasn’t impacted him, but the Paul Nicholls yard have a cracking record in this race – winning it 6 times since 2006 and three times in the last four runnings. With that in mind his ARPEGE D’ ALENE (Bet here at SP with Bet365) is the call. This French recruit was last seen running second at Ascot – beating Two For Two – and there should be more to come now running over fences for the first time.

2.05 – Badger Ales Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y CH4

13/13 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
11/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/13 – Won at least two chase races previously
11/13 –  Had run at the course previously (4 won over fences)
11/13 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
10/13 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
10/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
10/13  – Placed in the top four in their last race
8/13 – Raced at either Sandown (2), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
8/13 – Irish-bred horse
8/13 – Raced already that season
7/13 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
6/13 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
6/13 – Priced at double-figures
5/13 – Won their latest race
5/13 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
4/13 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 3 of the last 6 years)
2/13 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: This could be another for the Nicholls camp with The Ould Lad – they’ve targeted this race with success three times since 2008. However, this 7 year-old is not much value now and Paul Nicholls former assistant trainer – Dan Skelton – might upset the applecart. He runs WILTON MILAN (e/w) (Bet here at 10/1 with Bet365) here and after a recent third at Chepstow should be a lot better for the run. He’s dropped 2lbs for that run too and won’t mind if there is any more rain. Skelton clearly knows what horse it takes to win the race and at around 10/1 looks the e/w value.

3.15 – Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m CH4

12/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
10/12 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Came from the top three in the betting
9/12 – Unplaced in their last race
8/12 – Rated 150 or lower
7/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
7/12 – Having first run of the season
5/12 – Raced at Aintree last time out
5/12 – Carried 10-6 or less in weight
4/12 – Carried 11-10 in weight
3/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Trained by John Quinn
2/12 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/12 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

FREE HORSE RACING TIP:Not on C4 this year, but we’ve still got the trends for you. This could be another race that Skelton and Nicholls battle out with Nicholls running Irving and Skelton being represented by Zarib. Irving has to give away a lot of weight – 20lbs to the Skelton horse and that could be the difference. ZARIB (Bet here at 5/2 with Paddy Power) is also a past CD winner here and with another summer on his back looks the sort to do well this season. Of the rest, the Feguson team won this 12 months ago and run two – with their former useful flat performer, Francis Of Assisi, looking their best chance.  

Aintree Horse Racing Tips (C4/RUK)

2.30 – Betfred Hurdle Cl2 2m4f CH4

No previous runnings
Nicky Henderson has a 22% record with his hurdlers here
Peter Bowen is just 2 from 44 with this hurdlers here
John Ferguson is only 2 from 30 with his hurdlers here

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: All eyes will be on SIMONSIG (Bet here at 13/8 with Paddy Power) here after a 970 day absence. Nicky Henderon’s grey as had his fair share of problems but is back. It will be interesting to see how he returns and to what level of form, but if near his best would win this with ease. Royal Boy is another returning from a big break (665 days) but is another that was heading in the right direction before having a few issues. Former Gold Cup winner – Bobs Worth – is another one to draw in the crowds but has rather lost his way in recent seasons and you suspect age might just be catching up with him after a long and tough career. Purple Bay might be the one to take advantage if Simonsig needs the run.

3.05 – Betfred "Scoop6Soccer" Handicap Chase Cl2 2m3f200y CH4

10/10 – Aged 9 or younger
10/10 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Aged 8 or younger
8/10 – Won 2 or less times over fences before
7/10 – Won over 2m4f (or further) over fences before
7/10 – Last ran over 6 months ago
7/10 – Rated between 119 and 130
7/10 – Carried 11-0 or more
7/10 – Favourites unplaced
6/10 – Raced at Aintree before
5/10 – Won their last race
2/10 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies 
1/10 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

FREE HORSE RACING TIP:Just one winning favourite in the last 10 runnings of this race so take that into account. The Venetia Williams team won this in 2010 and will be looking to follow-up with the top-weight PEPITE ROSE (Bet here at SP with Coral). This horse will find this company a bit easier to her last race when 5 lengths behind Menorah and Sandown and the yard are starting to fire in a few winners. Of the rest, Minella Forfitness is the only previous course winner in the field so is respected and also heads here off the back of a good second last time out.


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Best Bookmaker Offers (Ts&C's apply)

WILLIAM HILL: If your horse comes second in any of the LIVE C4 races they will give you your money back (mobile, app, racing post app) (up to (£25)

PADDY POWER: Money back if your horse finishes second – Selected races

BET365: Back any winner at 4/1 or bigger on any of the LIVE C4 races and they will give you a FREE BET to the same stake on the next live C4 race (up to £50)

BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK: Back any winner at 3/1 or bigger on any LIVE C4 race and they will give you a FREE BET to the same stake (up to £25) – Money back if your beaten into second by a horse priced 20/1 or bigger! Upto £25 on all UK flat and NH races.

CORAL: Money back if beaten into second by a HEAD(or less) up to £/€25 per race.

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