Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 16th Jan 2016
Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends – Another busy Saturday ahead with the C4 cameras at Warwick, Wetherby and Chelmsford – as always we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with the key trends, plus free horse racing tips.
The Classic Chase at Warwick racecourse is the feature weekend race this Saturday, plus the C4 cameras are also at Wetherby and the AW Essex track at Chelmsford – so a busy day ahead and as always we’ve got all the LIVE C4 races covered with free horse racing tips and free horse trends for the main races. Be sure to claim your free bookmaker bets below, plus look out for further bookmaker specials on the LIVE C4 action (listed below) too.
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Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)
1.15 – Betfred "January Sale" Handicap Chase (for the Edward Courage Cup) Cl3 2m
9/9 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/9 – Won a chase race over 2m (or further)
8/9 – Officially rated between 119-128
8/9 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
7/9 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Favourites placed
6/9 – Ran within the last 2 weeks
6/9 – Aged 7 or younger
6/9 – From the top 3 in the betting
5/9 – Ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/9 – French bred
5/9 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
4/9 – Favourites
4/9 – Aged 7 years-old
3/9 – Had raced (fences) at Warwick before
3/9 – Won their last race
2/9 – Won by trained Venetia Williams
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 4/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Trainer Venetia Williams has won the last two runnings of this race so anything she runs should be noted – at this stage she has Vivaccio entered. The stats point to looking for a horse that finished fourth, or better, last time out, and also horses that carried 10-10 or more. It’s also been a race the punters have generally got right with 4 of the last 9 favourites winning, and 6 of the last 9 market leaders being placed. Several tick a lot of those key trends, but having a horse aged 7 or younger is another key stat, so with that in mind the Lucy Wadham-trained LANCEUR (e/w) (Bet here at 9/2 with Coral) looks interesting. This 7 year-old was third (of three) last time out here, but was sent off favourite and lost all chance when blundered badly in the closing stages. That was his first race for 5 months so we can expect him to have come on, while connections have given him a month to get over that. Of the rest, ALL TOGETHER (Bet here at 9/2 with Ladbrokes) has been running very consistently all season and will love conditions. He wasn’t beaten far last time out in to second and off just a 3lb higher mark looks set to go well too.
1.50 – Betfred Mobile Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m110y CH4
8/8 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/8 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
8/8 – Won between 0-2 times over fences
8/8 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/8 – Won between 1-2 times over fences
6/8 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/8 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
5/8 – Won over 3m (or further) chase
4/8 – Won their last race
4/8 – Irish bred
5/8 – Aged 7 years-old
5/8 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the betting
2/8 – Trained by Alan King
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/8 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
1/8 – Favourites
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Only five runners, but still an interesting little race. The Paul Nicholls-trained Silsol heads the weights, but after a few wins was well-beaten over 3m last time so has a bit to prove at the trip still. It’s interesting that the Willie Mullins camp send over Black Hercules, and he’s sure to be popular after an easy win on his chase debut at Navan last time out. He will love the conditions and looks a big player. Bally Beaufort has won twice at Aintree this season, but has a bit to prove after a very poor run at Kempton last time out. Brian Ellison’s Definitly Red is another that won on his chase debut, but he was 1/5 to do so and might find this company a bit hotter, despite having every chance on his old hurdles form. Another that catches the eye at the weights is Kim Baily’s EMILY GRAY (Bet here at 6/1 with Betway) – and she’s the call. This mare gets weight from most of the others and was a gallant second last time out behind the useful Ma Filleule at Doncaster. The step up to 3m is a slight unknown, but she stayed on well over 2m4f last time out and will lover the soft/heavy ground. David Bass gets the leg-up and knows the horse well, being 2-from-2 on her.
2.25 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f CH4
10/10 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/10 – WON between 1-4 times over hurdles before
9/10 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/10 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
8/10 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/10 – Never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
7/10 – Officially rated between 127-142
6/10 – Favourites Placed
6/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
5/10 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
3/10 – Won their last race
2/10 – Raced at Bangor last time out
2/10 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/10 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/10 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/10 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: A good race for the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard having won the prize twice in recent years so their four-timer-seeking ARCTIC GOLD (Bet here at 4/1 with William Hill) is certainly worth a look. This 5 year-old looks progressive after three wins on the spin at Stratford, Bangor and Ludlow – with the last two coming in heavy ground. An 8lb rise will make life harder but he won with a bit in-hand that day to suggest there should be more to come. The stats suggest looking for horses with 11-0 or less, that ran in the last 4 weeks and had won between 1-4 times over hurdles in the past – all of which this horse ticks. Of the rest, recent winners Isaacstown Lad, Volcanic, Howeaboutnever and Pobbles Bay are others to note with POBBLES BAY (Bet here at 7/1 with Betfair) looking the least exposed of that bunch. This Evan Williams-trained 6 year-old won in heavy ground last time out at Ffos Las, while this step up in trip looks another plus. He also gets a handy bit of weight from the others so rates the main danger to the pick Arctic Gold.
3.00 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Leamington Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f
9/9 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
9/9 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
9/9 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/9 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/9 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/9 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6/9 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
6/9 – Irish bred
5/9 – Favourites
5/9 – Favourites placed
5/9 – Aged 5 years-old
5/9 – Won their last race
2/9 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 10/3
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: A fair trial for the Neptune Investment Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, with last year’s winning yard – Dan Skelton – looking to have another good chance this year, this time with BORN SURVIVOR (Bet here at 9/4 with Betfred). This 5 year-old is unbeaten from two runs, including a course and distance win here last time out, and with the expected progress then everything points to a huge run. Of the rest, Alan King’s WISHING AND HOPING (Bet here at 16/1 with Boylesports) has done little wrong this term – winning twice – while it’s interesting that the Willie Mullins team have sent over Open Eagle and Thomas Hobson. Both looks to have big chances based on recent runs, while the Oliver Sherwood team took this in 2014 with Deputy Dan so their improving McKenzie’s Friend is another to consider as two recent smooth wins. However, we’ll stick with Skelton’s Born Survivor, who caught the eye over CD last time and that previous track experience gives him a nice advantage over the others.
3.35 – Betfred Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f CH4
10/10 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Won a chase race over at least 3m
9/10 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
7/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
7/10 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/10 – Officially rated between 129-140
7/10 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
7/10 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
6/10 – Won by an Irish bred horse
6/10 – Raced at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
6/10 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
6/10 – Aged 9 or older
6/10 – Ran at Warwick (hurdles, chase NH Flat) previously
5/10 – Unplaced Favourites
4/10 – Returned a double-figure price
3/10 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all failed to finish)
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by Alan King
2/10– Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: An interesting renewal, and a very competitive one at that. The Paul Nicholls and Alan King yards have targeted this race with decent success in recent years – winning the race five times between them since 2006. With that in mind anything they send to post should be respected. Alan King’s SEGO SUCCESS (Bet here at 7/1 with William Hill), who was a good winner at Doncaster last time out is certainly one for the shortlist and has been well supported in the week. He won by an easy 5 lengths that day, and despite being raised 7lbs for that win heads here on the up and looks a big player with conditions to suit. At this stage of the week Paul Nicholls has Black Thunder & VIVALDI COLLONGES (Bet here at 17/2 with 888 Sport) entered, with this horse heading here off the back of a good win at Kelso. He’s still only 7 years-old and with just 4 career chase runs there should be more to come. Looking at the key stats then we need to look for horses that have raced in the last 6 weeks or so, while 7-9 year-olds seems to have the best records. With that in mind Dan Skelton’s 8 year-old What A Good Night looks to have plenty in his favour. The horse was a neck winner last time out at Bangor, but the front two pulled well clear of the third that day so there could be more to come. Yes, an 8lb rise makes life harder, but conditions will suit and we think the extra yardage can eke out a bit more improvement too. However, the pick here is DE KERRY MAN (e/w) (Bet here at 9/1 with Boylesports). This horse was in the process of running a massive race at Cheltenham last time when leading and then slipping on landing at the third from home. David Bridgewater’s charge gets in here with just 10-5 which is a big plus in these conditions and over this trip, while Jake Hodson takes off a further 5lbs. Add in that he’s a past course winner here at Warwick then this improving chaser, that has won 3 of his 4 completed starts over fences, looks a cracking e/w option in a tough race.
Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)
2.05 – 188Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f36y CH4
4 previous runnings
4/4 – Won between 2-4 times over fences
4/4 – Rated between 133-139
3/4 – Raced in the last 3 weeks
3/4 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
3/4 – Carried between 11-6 and 11-7
3/4 – Ran at Wetherby before
2/4 – Irish bred
2/4 – Trained by Donald McCain
0/4 – Favourites
Caroline Bailey has a 26% record with her chasers here
Venetia Williams has a 27% record with her chasers here
Micky Hammond is only 2 from 33 with his chasers here
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Only four previous renewals to go on so we'll have to looks at some trainer stats first. The Micky Hammond camp are just 2 from 33 with their chasers at Wetherby so his Yorkist is overlooked, but, in contrast, the Venetia William yard do well here with a 27% strike-rate, so her GARDEFORT (Bet here at 9/2 with Skybet) is the pick. This 7 year-old was pulled up last time out at Newbury but the horse ran a bit free that day and it was also his first run for 10 months. We can expect the cobwebs to have been blown away after that run, while he's won in heavy ground in France so the conditions won't be an issue either.
2.40 – Asian Handicaps At 188bet.co.uk Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m3f154y CH4
Just 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/3 – Carried 10-3 in weight
2/3 – Trained by Sue Smith
2/3 – Aged 8 years-old
0/3 – Favourites
Dan Skelton has a 38% record with his hurdlers here
George Moore is just 3 from 46 with his hurdlers here
Trainer John Wade is just 1 from 47 with his hurdlers here
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Again, only a few previous runnings of this race – trainer Dan Skelton has a good record with his hurdlers here (38%) so his MASTER JAKE (Bet here at 4/1 with Betfair) catches the eye if lining up. This horse heads here off the back of two good recent wins in heavy ground and based on that there should be more to come. Upped in trip here, but that doesn’t look an issue while connections have given the horse a 53 day break to get over that last run in desperate ground. MAXIE T (Bet here at 4/1 with Paddy Power) enters the mix based on his last-time out 18 length win at Kelso in similar conditions despite a 11lb rise.
Chelmsford Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)
3.20 – William Hill Download The App Handicap Cl2 1m2f CH4
No previous runnings
Saeed Bin Suroor has a 67% record with his older horses at the track
David Simcock has a 33% record with his older horses at the track
Dean Ivory has a 22% record with his older horses at the track
Tom Eaves has a 26% record riding older horses at the track
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: LUV U WHATEVER (Bet here at 3/1 with 888Sport) took another step forward last time out to win a good race here and a 2lb rise for that gives him every chance again, while on old form the William Haggas-trained OUR CHANNEL (Bet here at 4/1 with Paddy Power) looks well-treated – especially on his second in a Group Two back in September 14. Gay Kelleway is 0 from 27 with her runners here so her Captain Felix is overlooked, while the David O’Meara yard are not much better with just 1 winner form their last 20 runners – they have Afonso De Sousa entered. However, the David Simcock horses are going well at the moment and they boast an impressive 25% record here at the Essex venue. With that in mind their WHISPERING WARRIOR is the call. The horse returned from a long lay-off last time out to run a fair sixth of 7, but wasn’t beaten far and with that being his first run for just over a year we can expect better this time.
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Thatsbettingtips Staff
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