Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 23rd Jan 16
Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends – Another busy Saturday ahead with the C4 cameras at Ascot and Haydock– as always we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with the key trends, plus free horse racing tips.
The Clarence House Chase at Ascot racecourse is the feature weekend race this Saturday, plus the C4 cameras are also at Haydock racecourse, with the Peter Marsh Chase their highlight – as always we’ve got all the LIVE C4 races covered with free horse racing tips and free horse trends for the main races. Be sure to claim your free bookmaker bets below, plus look out for further bookmaker specials on the LIVE C4 action (listed below) too.
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Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/C4)
1.50 – OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4
7 previous runnings
7/7 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
6/7 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
6/7 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
6/7 – From the top 4 in the betting
6/7 – Later ran in that season’s David Nicholson Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
6/7 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Newbury (2) in their last race
6/7 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
5/7 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
4/7 – Favourites placed
3/7 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/7 – Aged 6 years-old
3/7 – Won their last race
3/7 – Favourites
2/7 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/7 – French bred
2/7 – Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
Trainer Harry Fry won for the last 2 seasons
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 5/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Several interesting runners but the clear one to beat on these terms is the Willie Mullins-trained VROUM VROUM MAG (Bet here at 1/2 with Bet365). This exciting 7 year-old has won her last 7 starts (fences and hurdles) in the style of an improving sort and there should be more to come. Looking ahead to Cheltenham connections has several options with entries in the mares’ hurdle, Ryanair and World Hurdle, so a lot will depend on how she goes here, but with ground and trip looking ideal, plus the fact Ruby Walsh rides means it will be a shock if she doesn’t take this. Of the rest, The Govaness and Aurore d’ Estuval look the main dangers.
2.25 – "40 Years of Keltbray" Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y CH4
9 previous runnings
8/9 – Priced 11/2 or bigger in the betting
7/9 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
7/9 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/9 – Aged 7 or younger
6/9 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Officially rated 139 or higher
6/9 – French bred
6/9 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/9 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
5/9 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
5/9 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
5/9 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/9 – Won their last race
3/9 – Aged 6 years-old
3/9 – Trained by David Pipe
3/9 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/9 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/9 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
1/9 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 11/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: The Pipe stable have won this race three times in recent years so their Unanimite is interesting at what could be a fair price, plus the horse has the promising David Noonan taking off a handy 5lbs. The Gary Moore yard often do well in these competitive handicap hurdles so their improving Baron Alco is another to note. The horse heads here on a four-timer, including beating another of today’s main runners, Simply A Legend, into second last time out. A 7lb rise makes life harder, but looks a big player off just 10-9. Rock The Kasbah is another that’s caught the eye after winning at Haydock last time out. An 8lb rise looks a tad harsh, but he’s won 3 of his 7 hurdles races and there should be more to come from Philip Hobbs 6 year-old. Barry Geragthy is an interesting jockey booking for Royal Guardsman, and comes here off the back of a good win at Newbury last time out. The Henderson team are mob-handed with Theinval, Kilcrea Vale and Sugar Baron, so they all command respect too, and the same applies to the lightly-raced Zulu Oscar. However, with the David Pipe team having such a good record in this race and the fact a 5 year-old has won the contest for the last 3 years means we’ll take a chance on their UNANIMITE (e/w) (Bet here at 16/1 with Coral) here.
3.00 – Sodexo Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f CH4
13/13 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
13/13 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/13 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
12/13 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
11/13 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
11/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/13 – Favourites placed
9/13 – Won by a French-bred horse
9/13 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
9/13 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
9/13 – Won their last race
8/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
6/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/13 – Favourites that won
4/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 4 times in all)
2/13 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/13 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
3/13 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 – Master Minded, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
Since 1989 there have only been 2 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (25 runnings) there have been 11 winners aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 4/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 – Renewal at Cheltenham
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: This race has continued to be an excellent guide for the Queen Mother Champion Chase with the last three winners – Sprinter Sacre, Sire de Grugy and Dodging Bullets all going onto Cheltenham glory that season.
With that in mind we can expect the winner to shorten-up in the Champion Chase ante-post market, but build-up to the contest has all been about the next big 2mile chaser on the block – UN DE SCEAUX (Bet here at 8/13 with Betway).
This Willie Mullins-trained 8 year-old was an eye-catching winner of the Arkle Chase in 2015 at the Cheltenham Festival and followed that up with another easy win at Punchestown in April. He returned over Christmas at Leopardstown, but after looking to have the race in the bag took a tumble two out.
That has the second time he’s hit the deck from his six chase starts so those wanting to take him on, and those against him at Cheltenham, will cling to the fact he’s actually fallen in 33% of his chase starts so far. Therefore, if you are an odds-on player then even if the horse is well-clear coming up the Ascot straight you won’t be able to safely count your winnings until he’s over that last fence!
The powerful Willie Mullins stable will be hoping for two firsts in these races as he’s yet to win either the Clarence House or Champion Chase – which is surprising, but with time on his side, and most of his main rivals looking a bit long in the tooth, then everything points towards UN DE SCEAUX taking this. We also suggest snapping-up the 7/4 on offer about him winning the Champion Chase as a victory in this race will surely see those odds vanish without trace.
His main rival on Saturday will be Sire De Grugy, who won this in 2014, before following-up in the Champion Chase. A great achievement by Gary Moore’s yard, but, for me, although he’s a horse I like a lot I just feel the 2m chase division has been a bit weak for the past few years, especially with Sprinter Sacre being on the side-lines for so long. Yes, he went down fighting at Kempton behind a rejuvenated Sprinter Sacre over Christmas, but you just wonder how much that took out of the horse and at 10 years-old if time will start catching up with him. On a plus, Sire De Grugy will love the soft ground and being the only CD winner in the field then hopefully he can make Un De Sceaux pull out all the stops – we’ll then see how good he really is!
3.35 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
10/10 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
9/10 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Either French (3) or Irish (5) bred
8/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
7/10 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
7/10 – Aged 8 or younger
7/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
7/10 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
5/10 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
5/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
5/10 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or further
4/10 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
4/10 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 2 runnings)
2/10 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
2/10 – Trained by Richard Rowe
1/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 9/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: The Paul Nicholls yard have won the last two runnings of this race so their SALUBRIOUS (Bet here at 6/1 with Ladbrokes) stands out here. This 9 year-old should find this a bit easier than the Class One Listed Chase he ran in last time out at Ascot, while the slight drop back in trip is in his favour too. Trip and ground are fine and after a 35 day break the horse should be heading here freshened up and ready to go well. Of the others, it’s interesting the Venetia Williams yard run three in Cold March, Bennys Mist and Dare Me – the first two-named look to have chances. The only CD winner in the field is ROYAL REGATTA (Bet here at 9/2 with Boylesports), who did well to beat Mala Beach here last time out. The second has since franked the form by running second in Thursday’s Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park and only up 4lbs looks a huge player. Regal Encore is another to note based on his Plumpton win last time out, but that was in Novice company and this looks harder now stepped up in grade.
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)
2.05 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m
9 previous runnings
9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
9/9 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
8/9 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Aged 5 years-old
5/9 – Had raced at Haydock previously
5/9 – Won their last race
4/9 – Favourites
3/9 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/9 – French bred
2/9 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/9 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/9 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/9 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
2/9 – Ridden by Jason Maguire
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 5/2
2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: A nice little race with four of the six runners heading here off the back of wins. The Philip Hobbs-trained VIEUX LILLE (Bet here at 4/1 with Ladbrokes) has won all three starts over hurdles and there should be more to some. He’ll love the ground and we know he stays further so heads here with a massive chance in these conditions. Paul Nicholls runs LE PREZIEN (Bet here at 11/10 with Boylesports), who went into many a notebook last time out after an easy 19 length win at Doncaster. This will be harder, but he’s the pick from this powerful yard so connections must feel he’s up to the task. Its’ Afreebee is another that’s been winning well of late, including over further here last time out and enters the mix after his heavy ground win last month, while Bigmartre is the only previous CD winner in the field after a victory here last time out.
2.40 – stanjames.com Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) Cl1 2m CH4
10/10 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
10/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/10 – Finished in the top three in their last race
8/10 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/10 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
8/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
8/10 – Priced 9/4 or shorter
7/10 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
7/10 – Officially Rated 152 or higher
7/10 – Aged 7 or younger
7/10 – Either French (3) or Irish (4) bred
6/10 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (2) last time out
5/10 – Favourites
3/10 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
The average winning SP in the last 7 renewals is 7/4
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: THE NEW ONE (Bet here at 1/2 with William Hill) took this race 12 months ago and with Peace and Co now out of the race then everything looks in place for the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse following-up here. He has to give a bit of weight away, but is rated-well clear of the others and really it will be a shock if he can’t add this race to his CV for a second year.
3.15 – Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f CH4
12/12 – Aged 8 or older
12/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/12 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
11/12 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
11/12 – Had run within the last 36 days
9/12 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
8/12 – Officially Rated 140 or higher
8/12 – Won at Haydock previously
8/12 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/12 – Favourites unplaced
8/12 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
8/12 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/12 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
7/12 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
6/12 – Irish bred
6/12 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
6/12 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/12 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
5/12 – Raced in the Roland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
4/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/12 – Won over fences at Haydock before
2/12 – Trained by Sue Smith
2/12 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/12 – Won their last race
1/12 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 12 runnings – 11/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Top staying hurdler, REVE DE SIVOLA (Bet here at 4/1 with 888Sport) is certainly an interesting contender in this race, being rated as high as 160 over hurdles, but he gets in here over fences off just 139. Yes, at 11 years-old he’s not getting any younger, but he will love the ground and he has won over fences before when beating Wishfull Thinking at Cheltenham back in 2010. James Reveley is one of the best younger jockeys around so he will have every assistance from the saddle, while with just 10-4 to carry in this ground then he really could be a handicap blot if his jumping holds up.
Of the others, the stats suggest looking for horses with 11-3 or less, and that ran 36 days or less ago. The last 12 winners have ALL been aged 8 or older too – all key trends in favour of the selection. Sue Smith-trained Cloudy Too ran a good third here last time, behind another of today’s runners, Seventh Sky, and is another to consider on better terms with the winner and also being a past course winner. However, we’ll take a chance on the shrewd Nick Williams yard landing a touch here with their old-timer Reve De Sivola, who is rated a massive 21lbs lower over fences and in this ground that should make a hell of a difference!
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Thatsbettingtips Staff
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