Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends
The C4 cameras are at Newbury racecourse for four races that include the Denman Chase, Game Spirit Chase and Betfair Hurdle, while they also head to Warwick racecourse for a couple of races. As always we’ve got all the big race trends and stats for ALL of the LIVE races, plus our free horse racing tips – we hope they help you narrow down the fields and highlight a few winners.
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NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)
1.50 – Betfair Acca Edge Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y CH4
11/11 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
9/11 – Had run within the last 9 weeks
8/11 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
8/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Carried 10-13 or more
7/11 – Carried 11-1 or more
7/11 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
6/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/11 – Aged 7 years-old
5/11 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
5/11 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
3/11 – French bred
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9.5/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS – BEST BETS: The stats suggest we focus on the top four on the card with 8 of the last 11 winners carrying 11-1 or more. Add in that 9 of the last 11 victors had run in the last 9 weeks then we are left with just the top three. However, the key trend here is that ALL of the last 11 winners had won no more than 3 times over hurdles in the past so of the top three left only the Paul Nicholls-trained KELTUS (e/w) (Bet here at 13/2 with Boylesports) fits the bill with just one career hurdles win to it’s name. The yard also took this prize in 2010 with Alfie Sherrin, while a recent third at Kempton off just a 4lb lower mark was a solid effort.
2.25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4
10/12 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
10/12 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/12 – Rated 150+
10/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/12 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (3 winners)
8/12 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
7/12 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
6/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/12 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – French bred
4/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Returned a double-figure price
3/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/12 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman & Kauto Star)
2/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/12 – Won by the Pipe stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2
Note: 2009 running was staged at Kempton
THATSBETTINGTIPS – BEST BETS: Paul Nicholls has a great record in this race – winning it eight times and with the contest being named in honour of their former high-class stayer – Denman – then it goes without saying they will be wanting to land the prize again this year. Some huge names have taken this race in recent years – See More Business, Kauto Star, Silviniaco Conti, Long Run, Denman and, of course, Coneygree, who went onto Gold Cup glory the following month. We’ve actually seen three horses in the last 9 runners take this before going onto glory in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
But this year’s contest is not the best ever renewal and actually looks a fairly weak running in comparison to past years. That said, we do have last year’s second Houblon Des Obeaux lining-up, but since that run Venetia Williams’ 9 year-old has run some terrible races and is now rated 16lbs lower. That said, the horse is more-than capable of going well, but his last win over fences was now back in Dec 2013, so despite running well in some top staying events has been frustrating to say the least.
The Pipe team took this in 2009 with Madison Du Berlais and they will be bidding to follow-up with here BALLYNAGOUR (Bet here at 11/4 with Paddy Power). This 10 year-old was last seen in the King George on Boxing Day pulling-up, but he will find this company a lot easier. He’s the highest-rated horse in the race, and actually gets weight from some of the other main runners – like Rocky Creek. Therefore, if bouncing back to form, and running to the level that saw him finish 4 lengths third to Cue Card back in October then he should take all the beating and rates the call here.
Of the rest, Rocky Creek will the horse Nicholls will be hoping can win the race for a ninth time for him. But this 10 year-old was pulled-up in his last race at Aintree in the Grand Sefton. However, he was an 8 length second to Don Cossack in Ireland before that, so on that running gives him a chance – for sure. So the top three in the betting all have something to prove, but with Rocky Creek having to give 6lbs to Ballynagour and Venetia’s horse badly out-of-form at present then that might just swing things in favour of the Pipe-trained horse.
3.00 – Betfair Exchange Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y CH4
11/11 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Placed favourites
10/11 – Aged 8 or younger
10/11 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (2 winners)
8/11 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
9/11 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
6/11 – French bred
6/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (3 winners)
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/11 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
1/11 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/4
THATSBETTINGTIPS – BEST BETS: We finally get the chance to see last year’s Champion Chaser, DODGING BULLETS (Bet here at 4/5 with Coral), on the track, so no matter what happens here we’ll get some more clues head of that big Cheltenham race ahead of next month. It’s another of these Newbury races that handler Paul Nicholls has done well in the past in – he’s landed the prize seven times before and really he should be making it eight with Dodging Bullets.
His 8 year-old has had a few issues this season – hence why we are only seeing him now and not in races like the Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chases earlier in the season, but despite having to give weight away here he’s the clear top-rated. The reports coming out of the Nicholls yard are positive so if back on-song, as reported he is, then should take all the beating.
He’s sitting around the 8/1 mark for the Champion Chase next month and despite most people thinking Un De Sceaux can’t be beaten in that race I don’t think you can ignore the reigning champ, even though he has been off the course for 339 days. He was runner-up in this race in 2014, so we know he likes the track, while soft ground is not a problem either. No matter what happens here he’s sure to benefit for the run and this should bring him spot-on for the Festival. We think he shold still have enough class to win this and the 8/1 (Champion Chase) – is a price that may well vanish after this race – he looks a fair e/w option against the Mullins hot-pot next month. Top Gamble looks next best.
3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y CH4
13/13 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
12/13 – Aged 7 or younger
12/13 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
11/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/13 – Rated 130 or higher
11/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/13 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/13 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
10/13 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
5/13 – Aged 5 years-old (including 5 of last 8)
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/13 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/13 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
1/13 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
18 of the last 19 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14.4/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS – BEST BETS: In recent years the Nicky Henderson and Gary Moore teams have targeted this race with great success, but neither have entries this year. So, of the trainers that have won the prize recently the Paul Nicholls yard took the honours in 2012 with the classy Zarkandar, while Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here.
At this stage of the week both have entries with Paul Nicholls actually having one of the principles in the market with Modus, while Jonjo’s lowest-priced entry at the moment is Mad Jack Mytton – both look interesting trends horses too (more on that below).
In terms of the trends there are some fairly powerful repeating stats so despite the big-looking field we should be able to knock a fair few out.
Starting with the age then it’s horses aged 7 or younger that have held sway – winning 12 of the last 13 runnings, with 5 and 6 year-old having by-far the best recent record.
Next up is to look at recent form as 11 of the last 13 winners finished in the top three last time out – this further knocks several out, while with 12 of the last 13 winners having won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the past this is another key trend to apply.
Top owner JP McManus has also targeted this race in recent years – winning it in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here and then again in 2013 with My Tent Or Yours, and he looks to have another strong hand this year with Modus and Blazer running under his ownership.
So, with all the key trends taken into account the horses that tick a lot of boxes at this stage are MODUS, BLAZER, STERNRUBIN and MAD JACK MYTTON.
MODUS (Bet here at 9/1 with William Hill) – From the Paul Nicholls camp, who won this in 2012. The horse is also JP McManus-owned and we know this top owner has loved to win this prize in recent years. The horse was last seen running third at Taunton over further, but was a nice winner the time before over this course and distance. The drop back in trip will be fine, especially in what’s likely to be heavy ground, while connections have given this horse, who don’t forget was a close second in the Cheltenham Festival bumper last season, a nice break after it’s last run and so looks a big player off a fair mark.
BLAZER (Bet here at 4/1 with Bet365) – Another owned by JP McManus. This horse hails from the Willie Mullins camp and shot to the forefront of the betting after a smooth win in heavy ground at Leopardstown last Saturday. Yes, this race might come a bit quick for him, so we’ll have to see if he makes the trip over, but gets in here with a light-weight and that would be a big asset in this ground.
STERNRUBIN (Bet here at 9/1 with Betfred) – This German-bred 5 year-old comes from the Philip Hobbs yard and has done little wrong in recent outings – winning his last four. Dead-heated last time at Ascot in a 21-runner race, and despite being raised 8lbs for that is another course and distance winner which is a plus. The ground might ideally need to dry out a tad, but the yard are going well and he’s another that ticks a lot of the trends profile of previous winners of the race.
MAD JACK MYTTON (Bet here at 28/1 with Coral) – Of the four horses highlighted this one looks set to go off at the biggest odds if running. The yard won this in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here so know what’s required, while a recent second at Cheltenham back in December has since been franked with the winner – Solstice Star – going in again. The horse has been placed in the top three in 7 of his 8 hurdles starts and despite being untried on heavy ground has gone alright with give underfoot in the past.
WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)
2.05 – olbg.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f CH4
Just two previous running
Willie Mullins has won both runnings
Both renewals went to the favourite
Both winners carried 11-5
Willie Mullins has a 71% record with his hurdlers at the course (5 from 7)
THATSBETTINGTIPS – BEST BETS: The Willie Mullins yard have won the only two runnings of this race and really on these terms look set to do so again. They run PETITE PARISIENNE (Bet here at 7/2 with 888Sport), who is the clear top-rated in the line-up and hold an entry in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. This grey does, however, have a bit to prove after some poor recent runs, but should find this a lot easier than the races she’s been contesting. Jennies Jewel and Jessber’s Dream look next best.
2.40 – 7bets4free.com Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m CH4
6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 7 or younger
5/6 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
6/6 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
4/6 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/6 – Won over 2m fences before
4/6 – Rated between 137-147
5/6 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Unplaced favs
3/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Won last time out
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 43% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 39% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
2009 renewal was at Sandown
THATSBETTINGTIPS – BEST BETS: A poor turn-out, with just three runners, considering there is 22k on offer. L’Ami Serge is also entered in the Game Spirit (3pm) at Newbury. We’ve seen three of the last 5 favourites take this and really if L’AMI SERGE (Bet here at 2/9 with Paddy Power) runs here then he’s the one to beat at level weights. Nicky Henderson’s 6 year-old has won his last two in decent fashion, including last time out here in similar conditions, so we’ll take him to land this before heading to Cheltenham where he’s currently entered in both the Arkle (7/1) and the JLT Novices’ Chase (10/1). Fox Norton and Violet Dancer are no slouches, but might need to improve a bit more to figure if all three stay on their feet.
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Thatsbettingtips Staff
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