Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips and Trends
As we move into a busy Saturday there is plenty more horse racing today, with Chester Newbury, Newmarket, Ripon, Market Rasen and Cartmel racing in the afternoon, while Lingfield & Haydock provide the evening action.
Our resident horse racing betting expert, Andy Newton, is on hand with today’s free horse racing tips, plus all the key trends for the LIVE CHANNEL 4 races this Saturday (18h July) from Newbury, Newmarket and Market Rasen.
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Newmarket Tips (C4/RUK)
1.40 – Betway Handicap Cl2 1m CH4
Only 4 previous runnings
Godolphin won this in 2011& 2013
No winning favourites
3 of the last 4 winners carried 9-7 or more in weight
VERDICT: Only 4 past runnings of this race but the boys in blue of Godolphin have won two of those. Taking that into account their EMIRATES SKYCARGO (e/w) (Bet at 13/2 with Coral) is the pick– especially getting 11lbs from the top-weight, Tenor. Algaith looks the danger.
2.15 – Newsells Park Stud Stakes (Registered as The Aphrodite Stakes) (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f CH4
11/12 – Won over at least 1m2f or further
10/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/12 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – From the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Favourites placed
8/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
7/12 – Won between 1-2 times
6/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/12 – Favourites
3/12 – Raced at Haydock last time out
3/12 – Won their last race
3/12 – Trained by John Gosden
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
VERDICT: Trainer John Gosden has landed 3 of the last 12 runnings – he runs Bright Approach, but that horsedoes have a bit to find on these terms. Godolphin have two entered – Dream Child and Desert Snow – both look to have huge chances, but Luca Cumani’s JORDAN PRINCESS (e/w) (Bet at 9/2 with Paddy Power) is the pick. The stable are in cracking form and her two recent outings have been very encouraging – those runs should have her cherry-ripe for this.
Newbury (C4/RUK)
2.00 – Al Basti Equiworld EBF Breeding Winners Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m CH4
7 previous runnings
7/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/7 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight
6/7 – Aged 4 years-old
2/7 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/7 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/7 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 11/2
VERDICT: The last 7 winners carried 9-5 or more in weight here, plus 6 of the last 7 were aged 4 years-old. Therefore, REKDHAT (e/w) (Bet at 11/2 with Boylesports) and Spirit Raiser catch the eye. The selection is a 4 year-old with 10-0 to lump round who comes from the in-form Roger Varian team. He will be suited by the the drop back in grade after running fourth of 8 in a listed contest last time out, so is expected to run a big race.
2.35 – JLT Stakes (Registered as the Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f6y CH4
9/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
8/11 – Won over 1m2f or further
7/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/11 – Favourites placed
6/11 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
6/11 – Raced at the track before
6/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/11 – Won a Group race before
2/11 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/11 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/11 – Won their last race
2/11 – Favourites
1/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11.5/1
VERDICT: Only one winning favourite in the last 9 runnings. But the Sir Michael Stoute yard have won this contest twice in recent years so their CONSORT (Bet at 6/5 with Paddy Power) is the clear pick here. This lightly-raced 3 year-old hasFrankie Dettori in the saddle and heads here having won two of his last three starts. He was only beaten 3 lengths at Royal Ascot last time out behind the classy Gleneagles in the Group One St James’s Palace Stakes and on that running will be very hard to beat.. Fire Fighting looks the danger.
3.10 – Al Basti Equiworld Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f8y CH4
10/11 – Won over 6f before
8/11 – Won 4 or more times before
8/11 – Aged 5 or younger
8/11 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
5/11 – Won a Group race before
5/11 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/11 – Favourites
3/11 – Winners from stall 8
3/11 – Won their last race
2/11 – Trained by Hughie Morrison
1/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1
VERDICT: Just the one winner in the last 11 runnings drawn in stall 1, so that’s a bignegative for Aeolus. The Queen’s horse, Musical Comedy, is the only previous course and distance winner in the field but this could be another for the boys in blue of Godolphin. They have entered PORTAMENTO (Bet at 5/2 with Coral), who was a nice winner last time at Chester and can hopefully make the leap into Group company a succesful one.
3.45 – Weatherbys Super Sprint (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 5f34y CH4
10/11 – Won over 5f before
10/11 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/11 – Won 1-2 times before
7/11 – Favourites placed in the top 4
6/11 – Irish bred horses
6/11 – Won by a Feb or March foal
5/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/11 – Won by a filly
4/11 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
3/11 – Winners from stall 1
3/11 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 19/1
VERDICT: A massive pot on offer here and in recent years it’s been a race the Richard Hannon team havehave done very well in. They run six so hold another strong-hand, but their main hope based on jockey bookings (Richard Hughes) looks to be GREAT PAGE (e/w) (Bet at 6/1 with Ladbrokes). The horse was an excellent third in a Group Three over at the Curragh last time out and on that run should go very close here.
Market Rasen (C4/RUK)
2.55 – Betfred Mobile Summer Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f CH4
12/13 – Ran within the last month
12/13 – Won over at least 2m1f over hurdles
11/13 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
10/13 – Won 2 or more times already over hurdles
8/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
4/13 – Raced at Market Rasen before
3/13 – Ridden by Denis O’Regan
2/13 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/13 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/13 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
VERDICT: The John Ferguson yard took this race last year and look to have a good chance of following up. They had severalentries earlier in the week so the fact they've picked Commissioned and Buckwheat suggests they fancy these two to go well. The first-named will have Mikey Ennis taking off a handy 5lbs but with Aidan Coleman riding BUCKWHEAT (e/w) (Bet at 11/2 with Coral) he’s the one we like. The horse is up 13lbs for his last Aintree win, but that was a smooth victory and don't forget this horse was a decent 110 rated flat horse.
3.30 – Betfred Summer Plate (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f110y CH4
13/13 – Raced within the last 3 months
12/13 – Won over at least 2m4f before
11/13 – Aged 7 or older
10/13 – Won 2 or more chases before
9/13 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Raced at Market Rasen before
5/13 – Favourites (1 joint)
4/13 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/13 – Raced at Stratford last time out
4/13 – Ridden by AP McCoy
3/13 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/13 – Raced at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
It’s A Gimme won the race 12 months ago
VERDICT: It’s a Gimme won this race last year but is a huge 11lbs higher this year so more is needed. Dell ‘Arca and Valco De Touzaine look interesting, but 11 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 years-old. With that in mind PERFECT TIMING (e/w) (Bet at 14/1 with Betfair) stands out as a solid each-way option. The horse was an easy winner over CD last time out and an 8lb rise might not be enough to stop him going well again, albeit in a better race.
Thatsbettingtips Staff
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