Full trend analysis and free betting tips for the 4.15pm Sefton Nvoices’ Hurdle at Aintree.
One of Friday’s big hurdle races is the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle over 3m1f and 18 runners have been declared. This year’s renewal looks particularly competitive for a race that is renowned for springing shock winners. With only two of the last ten runnings claimed by the favourite, I have put together some trends to help you make your choice.
10 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 and 7.
10 out of the last 10 winners had run over at least 2m 5f.
10 out of the last 10 winners had won no more than 2 Graded races
9 out of the last 10 winners had won over at least 2m 5f.
8 out of the last 10 winners had an official rating of 145 or lower.
8 out of the last 10 winners were priced at 7/1 or higher.
7 out of the last 10 winners had run 7 or fewer times over hurdles.
6 out of the last 10 winners did not run at the Cheltenham Festival that same year.
Uniquely, a lot of the horses competing have bypassed Cheltenham to be aimed at this race. See You At Midnight (4/1 Ladbrokes) heads the markets after four victories back-to-back, culminating in a Grade 2 success over 3m at Haydock. He beat some good horses that day but this will be a far more difficult proposition. The trends show that only two horses have won this race rated over 145 (At Fishers Cross and Black Jack Ketchum) and this horse certainly cant be considered in their league just yet.
Another widely fancied runner is Killala Quay (13/2 Betfred) who did well to get within 6 lengths of the impressive Faugheen at Cheltenham. However, horses who run at Cheltenham do not have an impressive record in this race and the horse also comes up short with the trends.
Nicky Henderson saddles two in the race – Beat That (7/1 Ladbrokes) and Tistory (14/1 BetVictor) with the former the marginally more popular selection in the betting markets. Both horses are open to improvement but both fall foul of the trends and other runners are duly preferred instead.
Paul Nicholls also sends two runners in the form of Tagrita (12/1 Stan James) and Port Melon (25/1 Stan James). The latter is a good French import who is widely recognised as a top horse at Ditcheat but may well lack the necessary experience to deal with a race as competitive as this. Tagrita on the other hand is in a rich vein of form, form which is below what will be required to win here.
Horses who do meet all the trends include – Racing Pulse, The Last Samuri, Themanfrom Minella, Walk On Al and CAPOTE (10/1 William Hill). Racing Pulse (14/1 bet365) has been touted as a top quality horse but was given a bit of a beating by the favourite here last time out and would be best watched. The Last Samuri (25/1 Stan James) comes here off a good win over the distance and seems to excel when stepped in trip, unfortunately I don't quite think he’s up to the level needed here. Themanfrom Minella (50/1 William Hill) took a while to get to grips with racing but won well last time out in a low grade contest. Walk On Al (33/1 Ladbrokes) will be popular among the Liverpool faithful and his best form comes when finishing fourth in a Grade 2 event at Doncaster.
Of the runners, CAPOTE is my selection. Jonjo O’Neil was correct to stick More Of That in at the deep end in the World Hurdle and he doesn’t have any doubt about doing the same here with CAPOTE. He has already won over the trip and his last run was a bloodless 24 length win in a three runner race. The horse will need to improve but he will stay all day under the guidance of the champion jockey AP McCoy and he looks to be worthy of a selection.
CAPOTE (E/W) (10/1 William Hill)
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