Trends Analysis for the Towton Novices' Chase and Free Horse Racing Bets – The Towton Novices’ Chase is one of the showcase races to grace Wetherby racecourse throughout the jumps calendar.
Widely used as a stepping stone for horses likely to head to the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March. The race has attracted six contenders who will need stamina in abundance as the ground is likely to prove extremely testing.
9 out of the last 10 winners were sent off shorter than 7/2
10 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 8
8 out of the last 10 winners were winning favourites
10 out of the last 10 winners had previously raced over 2m5f
10 out of the last 10 winners had won at least twice in their careers
Starting off at the foot of the racecard, Strike Fast (50/1 BetVictor) returns from 1000 days off and also falls foul of the age trend as a 9 year-old. He doesn’t represent a realistic betting prospect and is best watched for another day.
Another horse who falls foul of the age stats is ELY BROWN (5/1 Coral). Despite this the horse comes into the race with potentially the best hurdle form on offer. He won a good novice chase last time out at Leicester and should put up a good performance in what could be a relatively weak renewal.
That last run at Leicester saw Ely Brown beat a horse by the name of Beeves who ties in with both Coverholder and Shutthefrontdoor. On a strict line through that form line, Ely Brown comes out on top. Coverholder (7/1 Betfred) has done well before being heavily beaten by a top novice last time out. Im of the firm belief that the horse will be out of his depth against more battle hardened opposition.
Shutthefrontdoor (2/1 Betfred) is the highest rated runner here and will be popular for the well known connections and jockey/trainer combination. The horse looked a decent chasing prospect but disappointed last time out. A return to earlier form will put him right in the mix but at the current prices he’s best watched.
Milborough (8/1 bet365) has been sent over by Tim Vaughan and if returning to the form he showed over hurdles then he should have a reasonable chance but the collateral form with Sixty Something in a novice chase earlier in the year means the horse has a lot to do with some of these.
Green Flag (5/2 BetVictor) completes he line-up and has a strong chance on the basis of his second to Annacotty in the Grade 1 Feltham last time out. Despite this, the race didn't look like a particularly strong renewal and the horse has also been beaten by 20 lengths by Shutthefrontdoor over hurdles.
There is a lot of collateral form on offer in this race. Green Flag and Shutthefrontdoor will be popular because of their past respective form but I think the horse they all have to beat is ELY BROWN. If you ignore the age trend, then the horse meets the remaining trends and, if he continues to progress over fences, then he should have a cracking chance of winning.
Towton Novices' Chase Selection –
ELY BROWN (WIN) (5/1 Coral)
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