Before I delve into where I see value at UFC 166 with some betting tips, congrats to anyone who tailed us on the last UFC event.
Our most profitable play on Dong Hyun Kim hit @ 11/5 when the Korean knocked the favourite out cold, meaning we were 1 / 2 for the night and in profit overall.
UFC 166 offers a VERY stacked card with a number of potentially lucrative plays. We see fights relegated to the undercard that could arguably make co-main event status at less interesting events. The 5-fights on the main card could all feasibly be won by either fighter – there’s no mismatch in terms of quality, though I definitely have some strong leans. I’m recommending 3 plays on this card; a 5-fold accumulator and 2 juicy single plays.
Darrell Montague vs John Dodson Betting Tips
Since winning reality television show ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ a couple of years ago John Dodson has maintained his position as one of the world’s premiere flyweights, packing perhaps the best knockout power in the division. Combine this with his insane athleticism and good wrestling and you have a fairly safe pick in Dodson. On the other hand, Montague, who is fighting in the UFC for the first time, is unproven and while he is doubtless one to look out for in the future, going against a savage like Dodson in his Octagon debut will be too steep of a test. John Dodson via TKO/KO @ 7/4 is tempting but for the purposes of the accumulator play it safe and simple with Dodson @ 3/10 with Sky Bet.
C.B Dolloway vs Tim Boetsch Betting Tips
Last time C.B fought I had the displeasure of having money on him. In a travesty of judging he won a split-decision victory in a fight he should’ve lost and – though I had won my bet – injustice had been done. Now he has had to fill in against Tim Boetsch after former Strikeforce champion Luke Rockhold pulled out due to injury. I believe Boetsch is the superior fighter and at this stage in his career should be given tougher opposition. Though he can at times be sloppy, his strength and size advantage over Dolloway should prove too much. Put Boetsch in the accumulator @ 4/7 with Bet365.
Gilbert Melendez vs Diego Sanchez Betting Tips
Both Melendez and Sanchez are top-tier fighters and I believe this should be a competitive fight. While my lean is towards Melendez grinding out the victory, I believe he is definitely being overvalued at 1/7 – he opened A LOT lower. Coming off a very close title-shot loss, Melendez is rightfully the favourite. I believe the best value choice for our accumulator is the over 2.5 rounds prop. Sanchez has been through some wars in his lengthy career and can endure the beating Melendez is likely to put on him. I would also recommend putting a very light wager on Sanchez winning the fight as the UFC judges can act in very strange ways. He is being criminally undervalued here and definitely has a chance of causing the upset. Add over 2.5 rounds to the accumulator @ 2/5 with Bet365 and – if you’re feeling lucky – take the Sanchez outright single @ 5/1 with Ladbrokes.
Roy Nelson vs Daniel Cormier Betting Tips
This clash pitting the always-dangerous Roy Nelson against former Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier on paper looks like an entertaining main event which could easily go either way. However, though there’s no disputing that Nelson’s notorious overhand right could KO anyone in the division, I believe DC’s speed and wrestling advantage should allow him to evade Nelson’s bombs. Nelson’s chin is made of granite so I can’t see DC being able to stop him. This fight is destined to hit the judges’ scorecards where Nelson – who is prone to gassing after the 1st round – is very likely to lose by decision. Rather than sticking with the fairly safe ‘Daniel Cormier outright’ pick I’m going to recommend adding the juicier ‘Daniel Cormier by Decision’ line to our accumulator, available @ 4/6 from Paddy Power.
Junior dos Santos vs Cain Velasquez Betting Tips
This is the third part of a trilogy of amazing heavyweight title fights where Dos Santos won the first fight by 1st round KO while the second went to Cain on points after a 5 round beat down. Though JDS was the one capable of getting the stoppage I believe he rightfully finds himself at dog odds and there is actually some value here on Velasquez. In their second meeting in the Octagon Cain was able to showcase how favourably he matches up to JDS if the fight is actually allowed to develop; we saw how Cain’s striking was certainly as good as JDS’s and that his high-level wrestling could be used effectively to take the fight to the mat. I think the most likely outcome is for Cain Velazquez to win on points again. In fact, I think there’s a lot of value betting on this outcome so will recommend putting your money on the single ‘Cain Velasquez by decision’ @ 11/4 with Sky Bet. Add Cain to win outright to the 5-fold accumulator @ 1/2 with Bet365.
UFC Betting Tips for Saturday 19th October
5-fold on John Dodson, Tim Boetsch, Melendez/Sanchez Over 2.5 rounds, Daniel Cormier by Decision and Cain Velasquez at 5.31/1 with Paddy Power.
Single on Diego Sanchez to win at 5/1 with Ladbrokes.
Single on Cain Velasquez by decision at 11/4 with Sky Bet
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By Sam Heard