Value Bets For Thursday Day 3 Of Glorious Goodwood

Value betting tips covering the best of the action on Thursday, Day 3 of the Glorious Goodwood Festival.

With a host of competitive racing action on Day 3 of the Glorious meeting, there will undoubtedly be plenty of value on offer.  With that in mind I’ve assessed two races in the search of some each-way opportunities.

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3.10 Goodwood

The highlight on the card is the Group 2 Goodwood Cup over 2m.  There are three markets leaders in the race, all single figure odds and all worthy of taking on at the prices.  Cavalryman looks vulnerable over this distance considering his age, he is likely to run his race but may find one too good; Estimate arrives here after a creditable second place finish on her first start of the season at Royal Ascot over 2m4f but may be unsuited by the pace needed over 2m at Goodwood, and Brown Panther has had a lot of racing of late and is undoubtedly seen to best effect on testing ground.

I want to make it clear that I respect Brown Panther hugely and he looks the likeliest winner if he shows his best form and if recent exertions don't take their toll, however others at bigger prices are of interest, primarily – ANGEL GABRIAL (14/1 bet365).  This five-year-old has only had three starts over 2m or 2m+ and has won or finished runner-up on each start.  His latest run was in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle (form which was franked by Van Percy, who finished ninth at Newcastle, winning yesterday) on good to firm ground where his turn of foot put the race to bed.  That ability to accelerate instantly over stamina trips is a huge advantage at Goodwood as the twisting idiosyncratic track demands tactical speed and good balance.  He is likely to be up with the pace in this race and, although often hanging to his right, he is unexposed over this trip and open to plenty of improvement.  

3.45 Goodwood

The Lillie Langtry is always a tricky race for punters to decipher (only two winning favourites since 2004) and regularly offers up the opportunity to find a big priced winner.  This year’s renewal looks no different and currently has Missunited as the short priced favourite, a mare I'm happy to take on.  Last seen finishing third to Leading Light in the Ascot Gold Cup over 2m4f, this daughter of Golan steps down markedly in trip and returns to 14f after having won a Listed event at this trip in Leopardstown on her penultimate start.  Likely to adopt front running tactics she could be dangerous if allowed to dictate matters but, over this trip, she may struggle to quicken away from her rivals as she has done in her recent races and, at the age of seven, she may struggle to hold off younger, improving rivals.

One horse who fits such a description is the lowest rated runner in the field STELLA BELLISSIMA (7/1 William Hill).  Although she has some 32lbs to find with the favourite she receives 14lbs and has an extremely exciting profile.  A daughter of Sea The Stars out of a Danehill Mare her pedigree screams staying distances and she is related to a Irish St Leger winner – Duncan, and a Doncaster Cup winner – Samuel.  As such, it was no surprise to see her doing her best work in the final few furlongs on her only start to date at Newbury over 1m4f.  That trip was clearly too short for her but, despite showing greenness, she put in a fantastic effort to beat a horse who has since gone on to win a maiden at Newmarket by 19 lengths (though that form does look weak).  Aside from her pedigree, her trainer John Gosden has shown all his skill when placing horses of a similar profile and has had great success in doing so this season.  The likes of Eagle Top, Belle D’Or and Sultanina have all won weak events before being thrown into high class races and winning them impressively.  Undoubtedly this will be a big ask for this three-year-old filly, but as she is open to dramatic levels of improvement and finds herself in a competitive field where nearly 40% of the book is taken by one other filly, her price offers a good deal of each-way value. 

Value Bets On Day 3 Of Glorious Goodwood – 

3.10 – ANGEL GABRIAL (E/W)(NAP) (14/1 bet365)

3.45 – STELLA BELLISSIMA (E/W) (7/1 William Hill)

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