Weekend's FREE Horse Racing Tips: Sat 30th April - Sun 1st May
Weekend's FREE Horse Racing Tips: Sat 30th April - Sun 1st May

Weekend's FREE Horse Racing Tips: Sat 30th April – Sun 1st May – The C4 cameras head to Newmarket racecourse this weekend for their Guineas Meeting that features the first two of the five English Classics – the 1,000 Guineas and 2,000 Guineas. The cameras are also at Goodwood, Hamilton and Salisbury over the two days.

As always we’ve got all the key horse racing trends and stats – plus free horse racing tips and best bets for the LIVE C4 races over both Saturday and Sunday to help you narrow down the runners – we hope they help!

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Saturday 30th April 2016

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.00 – championsofracing.co.uk Suffolk Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m1f CH4

11/11 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
11/11 – Had won at least twice before
11/11 – Had won over at least a mile before
9/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/11 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
9/11 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
8/11 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
8/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Rated between 90 and 95
6/11 – Aged 4 years-old
5/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Having their first run of the season
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Came from stall 9
1/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

ThatsBettingTips Verdict: The Sir Michael Stoute team took this race in 2009 and they look to have another decent chance here with INTIMATION (Bet here at 5/1 with Paddy Power). This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the key trends, like age, last run form, weight and having won over at least a mile before – while she’ll also have the services of top Irish jockey, Pat Smullen. She makes her seasonal reappearance here, but we are not concerned about that with the Stoute yard having a decent start to the new season. Of the rest, previous course winner, Emerald, is another to consider and will strip a lot fitter than most after two runs already this month.


2.30 – Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f CH4

12/13 – Had won over 5f before
12/13 – Won 3 or more times before
11/13 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
11/13 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
10/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Had run at Newmarket before
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Rated between 108 and 114
9/13 – Aged 5 or younger
9/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/13 – Aged 5 years-old
2/13 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Sole Power has won this in 2013 and 2014
Just 1 placed horse from stall 1 in the last 9 runnings
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

ThatsBettingTips Verdict: Top speedster, Sole Power, took this race in 2013 and 2014 so is certainly one to consider, especially with Ryan Moore riding. However, at 9 years-old he’s not getting any younger and might just be on a slight downward curve now after a cracking career. With 10 of the last 13 winners having finished 1st or 2nd in their last race and with 9 of the last 13 rated between 108 and 114 then only a three fit the bill on those two counts. Lancealot Du Lac, Take Cover and COTAI GLORY (e/w) (Bet here e/w at 10/1 with Boylesports), with preference for the last-named. This 4 year-old still has plenty of time on his side and with just 11 career runs under his belt then there should be more to come this season. He rounded last season off with a decent Listed win at Doncaster, but is a previous Group Three winner too, and also wasn’t beaten far in the Group Two King George Stakes at Goodwood last July. Lancelot Du Luc, who has been running well on the AW recently rates the next best at a nice e/w price.


3.05 – Dunaden At Overbury Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f CH4

13/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/13 – Had won between 3-5 times in their career
11/13 – Won over 1m4f before
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
9/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Rated 112 or higher
7/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Aged 4 years-old
6/13 – Had won a Group race before
6/13 – Aged 5 years-old
6/13 – Having their first run of the season
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Returned 7/4 in the betting
4/13 – Ran at Newbury last time out
2/13 – Won by Mark Johnston
2/13 – Trained by Andre Fabre
Second Step won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

ThatsBettingTips Verdict: Last season’s St Leger winner, Simple Verse, will be popular here, but it could be she wants a bit further than this 1m4f trip these days, while on official ratings she’s got 7lbs to find with the hot favourite here – JACK HOBBS (Bet here at 5/15 with Betway). She’s also got to give away 2lbs in weight so really Jack Hobbs is 9lbs well-in and based on that last year’s Epsom Derby runner-up should take all the beating here. Yes, this will be his first run since October, but he’s got a cracking record when fresh (2-from-2), so there are no concerns on that front, while the drop back into Group Two company for this previous Group One winner will provide him with easier opposition too.


3.45 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m CH4

14/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/14 – Had won over at least 7f before
12/14 – Had won a Group race before
12/14 – Had won between 2-5 times before
11/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Having their first run of the season
8/14 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Won by an Irish-based yard
8/14 – Irish bred
6/14 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (7 wins
5/14 – Had won over a mile before
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
4/14 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
3/14 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
3/14 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 10 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts
– Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012 & 2015
– Kieren Fallon rode the winner in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006 & 2014

ThatsBettingTips Verdict: With seven 2,000 Guineas victories already in the locker then top Irish trainer, Aidan O’Brien, is certainly the man to follow here. He took the first of the English Classics 12 months ago with his classy Gleneagles and he looks to have another superstar in the making here with AIR FORCE BLUE (Bet here at 8/11 with Bet365). This 3 year-old only career blemish came when second in the Covenrty Stakes last season, but he quickly put that run behind him by mopping-up three Group One’s, including the Dewhurst Stakes, over the rest of the season. 3 of the last 14 Dewhurst winners have followed-up in this race the following season and now stepped up to a mile for the first time then there should be even more to come. The O’Brien yard are also in flying form at the moment – with a 30% strike-rate over the last few weeks, while Ryan Moore, who will be looking for his second winner in this famous race, is a further plus in the saddle. Of the others, recent Craven Stakes winner, Stormy Antarctic, has proven he can handle the track, but the only horse to beat the selection – Buratino – might be the each-way value in the race if getting the trip.

 

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.15 – Betfred TV EBF Stallions Daisy Warwick Stakes (Fillies´ & Mares) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Had won over 1m4f before
4/5 – Had won between 2-3 times before
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
3/5 – Aged 4 years-old
2/5 – Winners from stall 2
2/5 – Raced at Ascot last time out
1/5 – Winning favourites
Miss Marjurie won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 9/2
Trainer James Fanshawe has a 25% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 24% record with his older horses at the track
Kieren Fallon has a 21% record riding older horses at the track

ThatsBettingTips Verdict: The 6 year-old Miss Marjurie took this race 12 months ago so will be a popular choice to follow-up. She’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past and rounded off last season with an excellent fifth, beaten just 1 ½ lengths, in the Group One Yorkshire Oaks – on that form, and back into Listed grade, would have a massive chance. However, despite only 5 previous runnings of this race it could be significant that they’ve ALL been won by either a 4 or 5 year-old. Plus, with trainer James Fanshawe and jockey Kieren Fallon having cracking records at the track then it might be worth chancing  a horse they team-up with called MODERAH (e/w) (Bet here at 7/1 with Coral). This lightly-raced 4 year-old is a proven winner over this 1m4f trip, while she was only beaten 2 lengths into third in a fair Group Three last October at Newbury. With another winter under her belt there should be more to come and she’ll have no better assistance from trainer and jockey – who love having winners here.


2.50 – Betfred "Treble Odds On Lucky 15´s" Handicap Cl2 7f CH4

Just 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Carried between 8-7 and 8-12
3/3 – Had won between 2-4 races before
3/3 – Winners that came between stalls 5-9 (inc)
2/3 – Aged 4 years-old
2/3 – Finished second last time out
2/3 – Ran at Kempton last time out
1/3 – Winning favourites
Fiftyshadesofgrey won this 12 months ago

ThatsBettingTips Verdict: Just three previous runnings of this race, but we’ve got last year’s winner – Fiftyshadesofgrey – lining-up again. This 5 year-old is one of just three previous course and distance winners in the field and that’s a big plus around this tricky undulating track. However, he’s now rated 9lbs higher than 12 months ago and seemed to struggle a bit off this higher mark towards the end of last season. A positive would be that he’s had a recent run to blow away the cobwebs though. Looking at the limited trends then those at the foot of the card – Sinfonietta, Russian Realm & CZECH IT OUT (e/w) (Bet here at 12/1 with Ladbrokes) could be the ones to focus on. The first-named won well last time out, and has Fallon riding, but the heavy ground might have flattered that victory. Russian Realm has won over CD here before, but has had a busy winter on the AW and might just find one of the fresher horses too good. Czech It Out is another past course and distance winner so we know he likes it here, plus won first time out last season so his lack of a recent outing is not a worry. Add in that the Amanda Perrett yard have been amongst the winners of late and top Irish jockey Fran Berry rides then these are further positives.

 

Sunday, 1st May 2016

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


1.50 – Qipco Supporting British Racing Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f CH4

11/12 – Had won at least twice before
11/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/12 – Finished in the top 5 in their last race
11/12 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
10/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less
8/12 – Had won over 1m4f before
8/12 – Had won between 2-4 times before
5/12  Having their first run of the season
4/12 – Had run at Newmarket before (Rowley)
3/12 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/12 – Winning favourites (1 co)
1/12 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6.7/1


2.25 – Charm Spirit At Tweenhills In 2017 Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f CH4

12/12 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
11/12 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/12 – Had won over 1m (or further) before
10/12 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
8/12 – Had run at the course before
8/12 – Aged 4 years-old
7/12 – Ran at either Kempton (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
7/12 – Won this on first run of the season
6/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Ran at Kempton last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/12 – Ridden by Seb Sanders
2/12 – Ridden by William Buick
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2


3.00 – longholes.com Rehab And Pre-Training Handicap Cl2 6f CH4

12/12 – Had won between 2-5 times before
11/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/12 – Had won over 6f before
10/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/12 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
9/12 – Carried 9-1 or less
6/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
5/12 – Returned between 10/1-12/1 in the betting
5/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
1/12 – Winning favourites
Just 1 placed horse from stall 1 in the last 8 runnings
6 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 9 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1


3.40 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m CH4

13/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Had won a Group race before
11/14 – Had won between 2-3 times before
10/14 – Won their previous race
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
8/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
8/14 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price
7/14 – Favourites were unplaced
6/14 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
6/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/14 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
4/14 – Won by a US bred horse
4/14 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/14 – Previous Group One winners
4/14 – Irish-trained winners
3/14 – Won by the favourite
3/14 – French-trained winners
3/14 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/14 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia)
No placed horses from stall 1 in the last 8 runnings
5 of the last 8 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 10.4/1

1,000 Guineas Facts
Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained two winners , Virginia Waters (1995) and Homecoming Queen (2012)

ThatsBettingTips Verdict: The powerful Aidan O’Brien camp don’t quite have the same stranglehold on this race as they do in the 2,000 Guineas with just two past wins. The last of those came in 2012, but they will be trying to add another here with leading fancy – MINDING. This classy filly rounded-off last season with an ultra-impressive win in the Group One Dubai Fillies’ Mile over this course and distance, so on that form looks a huge player. She’s proven over the trip and, more importantly, the track, while being out of Galileo there should be even more to come if stepped up again in trip later in the season – she’s currently around 3/1 for the Epsom Oaks (3rd June) – a price that will surely vanish without trace should she land this. Of the rest, last season’s Cheveley Park Stakes winner, Lumiere, looked a classy sort last season and has been well-supported as an alternative to the favourite all winter. She’s another with course-winning form here, but whereas Minding as won over a mile before, there are serious questions about this horse staying this trip with all her career runs coming over 6f. Nathra won the Nell Gwyn Stakes here a few weeks ago and looks sure to play a part too, but don’t forget the selection trounced this horse by 4 ½ lengths here last October so should have her measure again.

 

Salisbury Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

2.05 – Betfred "City Bowl" Handicap Cl3 1m6f21y CH4

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
10/12 – Had won between 1-3 times on the flat
10/12 – Carried 8-12 or more
9/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/12 – Aged 4 years-old
6/12 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
5/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/12 – Ridden by Seb Sanders
9 of the last 10 favourites finished in the top 3
3 of the last 6 winners came from stall 1
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 1-6 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

 

Hamilton Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

 

2.45 – totepoolliveinfo.com Buttonhook Handicap Cl3 1m5f14y CH4

10/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 5 or older
9/10 – Horses from stall 6 placed
9/10 – Won between 4-8 times before
9/10 – Had won over at least 1m4f
8/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
7/10 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
5/10 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
5/10 – Unplaced favourites
4/10 – Aged 5 years-old
4/10 – Winners from stall 6
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Alan Swinbank
1/10 – Won last time out
Alan Swinbank’s Aramist win the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

 

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Content Contributor at Thatsbettingtips.com
The team behind the betting tips, offers and promotions at tipster website thatsbettingtips.com.