Welsh National Betting, Free Tips & Trends
After being cancelled over the Christmas period the 2015 Welsh National has been re-scheduled for Saturday 9th January 2016. The Coral-sponsored Welsh Grand National has always been a huge highlight over the festive campaign. Run over a trip of 3m 5 ½f at Chepstow racecourse then stamina is a ‘must-have’ asset when it comes to finding the winner, while if you like your trends and stats you’ll want to know that the last 19 winners have been aged 9 or younger.
In recent years Bindaree and Silver Birch won this race as well as the Aintree Grand National, while the 2010 winner Synchronised went onto land the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Horse racing trends expert Andy Newton looks back at recent winners of the Welsh National and also gives you all the key Welsh National trends to look out for ahead of the 2015 renewal – now being run on January 9th 2016.
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Recent Welsh National Winners
2014 – EMPEROR’S CHOICE (9/1)
2013 – MOUNTAINOUS (20/1)
2012 – MONBEG DUDE (10/1)
2011 – LE BEAU BAI (10/1)
2010 – SYNCHRONISED (5/1)
2009 – DREAM ALLIANCE (20/1)
2008 – NOTRE PERE (16/1)
2007 – MIKO de BEAUCHENE(13/2)
2006 – HALCON GENELARDAIS (7/1)
2005 – L’AVENTURE (14/1)
2004 – SILVER BIRCH (10/3 fav)
2003 – BINDAREE (10/1)
2002 – MINI SENSATION (8/1)
Coral Welsh National Betting Trends
13/13 – Aged 9 or younger
13/13 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
13/13 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
13/13 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
12/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/13 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
11/13 – Aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
9/13 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
8/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
7/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – Unplaced favourites
5/13 – French bred
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Had run in the Welsh National before
4/13 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 10.6/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIP: The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard have landed this race twice in the past with Binderee (2003) and Earth Summit (1997) – both horses that also landed the Aintree Grand National in their careers too. With that in mind this stable look to have another big chance – this time with CONGRY (e/w) (Bet here at 9/1 with Betway). This 7 year-old was a fair fourth last time out at Cheltenham behind an improving sort and with that being his first run for 7 months then we can expect the horse to have come on for that outing. Add in that he’s also a course winner here at Chepstow when landing a Novice Handicap Chase at the track in December 2014 then that’s a further plus. 4 of his five career wins have been in either heavy or soft ground so conditions look ideal, and, finally, ticks plenty of the key trends listed above. Of the rest, last year’s winner, EMPEROR’S CHOICE (Bet here at 11/1 with Betfred), is another to consider. This Venetia Williams-trained 9 year-old took this race off a 10lb lower mark 12 months ago, but has returned this season with a nice win at Haydock so there could still be more to come. The horse will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Bonanza Boy (1989-90).
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